They open with a false premise. As long as unemployment stays around 10% nobody will buy that the economy is rebounding.
Obama certainly could win, but it will be despite the economy.
Posted on 01/21/2011 9:43:12 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The economy’s rebounding, his approval ratings are ticking up, and the GOP field is a mess. Mark McKinnon and Myra Adams on the president’s odds of a return ticket to the White House.
President Obama’s poll ratings are climbing. And the online prediction market Intrade has Obama at a 58.9 percent chance of winning a second term. Though November 2012 is light years away in political time, as Team Obama regroups in Chicago, they should be optimistic about their reelection prospects. Here are 12 reasons why:
1. Power of Incumbency
In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21 of those candidates have won more than one term. Based on these historical odds, Obama has a better-than-67-percent chance of winning reelection. In 2004, voters were not happy with the economy, the Iraq War or President Bush generally, and still he was reelected.
2. Love Story Continues
Though the mainstream media is now sometimes critical of President Obama, he has never faced the extreme 24-hour-a-day derangement that has plagued other recent presidents and potential candidates-to-be. This gentle treatment is worth millions to a campaign.
3. Billion-Dollar Campaign
According to Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, President Obama’s 2012 reelection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion. Not an unreasonable assumption because he raised $750 million in 2008. Look for the coming campaign to break all fundraising and spending records on both sides.
4. Experienced Campaign Organization
In 2008, the junior senator from Illinois assembled a team of outsiders that defeated the Clinton machine and won the presidency with 365 electoral votes to Sen. John McCain’s 173. With the same Chicago campaign team in place, Obama will benefit from experience and memory; mistakes won’t be repeated.
5. Obama’s Charm Offensive
Let’s face it, Obama knows how to turn it on and win crowds with his oratory. He is personally likable, has an attractive family, and his favorables are climbing. His Real Clear Politics average is at 49.9 percent. That’s comfortably within the zone of the last three presidents to win reelection. At 752 days into the first term, according to Gallup, President Reagan’s approval rating fell to 37 percent. Clinton’s was at 47 percent, and George W. Bush’s was 61 percent. If history is any guide, Obama has nothing to fear at this point from Mr. Gallup.
6. Economy is Improving
As the economy goes, so goes Obama's reelection prospects. Yes, this is a potential weakness, but there are signs of hope. And what is most important is not what voters think about the economy at this hour, but rather whether they think it is improving. The stock market is rising, and unemployment is trending downward, albeit too slowly. Consumer spending is up, and 40 percent of Americans say the economy will improve over the next year. The campaign theme may be: He brought us back from the brink.
7. They’ll Be Back
The 2010 midterm voters that swept Republicans into control of the U.S. House, governorships and state legislatures were older, whiter, and more conservative than those who went to the polls in 2008. Despite this “white flight” from the Democratic Party, young voters, more minorities, more women, and generally more liberals will be back in 2012. Though some of the liberal base may hold their nose, they’re not likely to desert the Democratic incumbent in November. And there is no doubt that Obama’s billion-dollar campaign fund will find some way to get his core constituents to the polls.
8. Obama, “The Moderate”
Forty percent of Americans now see the president as a moderate. That’s up 10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago. If congressional Republicans are viewed as strident and over-reaching, Obama will be well positioned as a moderating force—with or without any Clintonian triangulation.
9. Republican Sparring Match
With no obvious frontrunner at this point, the Republican primary season may drag on and could be very messy. Tea Party support may be torn. And while Republicans debate which candidate is more Reaganesque, Obama will stay above the fray, looking presidential.
10. Neverending Campaign
Organizing for America never stopped working since 2008 and continuously sends targeted emails to its 13 million members. Supporters are asked to volunteer for service projects or call Congress to object to the vote on repealing health care. It’s the presidential campaign that never ended.
11. Hispanic Vote Growing
Obama earned 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008 compared to McCain’s 31 percent. The Five State Voter Project, sponsored by The Hispanic Institute, is under way to increase Hispanic voter participation in five states: New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado. Winning all of these states could seal the deal for Obama.
12. Several Paths to 270
There were five key red states that Obama won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina. Obama could lose every one of them in 2012 and still win reelection with 272 electoral votes.
While the election is eons away, the race at the moment is Obama’s to lose.
The only thing I agree with is that there doesn’t seem to be a Republican that can stur passion. So far, it’s the same old faces of 4 years ago.
yes.... we’re sure scared now!
They open with a false premise. As long as unemployment stays around 10% nobody will buy that the economy is rebounding.
Obama certainly could win, but it will be despite the economy.
ONE Reason WHY Obama WON’T Win in 2012
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Certifigate.
The Anti-birthers (here on FR and everywhere else) keep telling us that the birth certificate issue is a non-starter. That we should focus on the issues and defeat his agendas.
It’s been two years now. How’s that working out for us?
Really, the ONLY thing that is gaining momentum and is moving forward to derail the Pres__ent is Certifigate.
Yes, it is encouraging that the Repubs want to overturn Obama Care, and yes it is helpful that a majority of states are opposed to it as well, but Certifigate is still viable.
If only the RINO’s at Fox News would get on board, as well as Limbaugh and Sarah.
Oh, and FREE THE LONG FORM! (That is if Abercrombie can find it!)
From the genius who runs the No Labels bunch.
Before Barry can run, he has to be certified as eligible...again. Surely one Secretary of State somewhere in the USA will do the right thing. Actually, this is all street theater to keep the peasants diverted - Barry won’t run again because of all the damage he has and will continue to inflict upon this once great Nation.
The birth certificate is just part of the issue (a big part to be sure); it is also his admissions forms at Occidential College, his transcripts from all of the universities he studied at, and his method of financing his undergraduate and law school education.
McKinnon probably won’t be running the opponent’s campaign this time either, that is another problem for Barky.
1. True, except that most Presidents with an economy in the pits as this one is fail to be re-elected. See Carter.
2. VERY true.
3. True, though Republicans will manage to raise a Billion, too.
4. Partly True. The difference, this time, is that they have to run on his record.
5. Partly True. There are other factors involved that were not in play in the prior elections cited. i.e., Economy.
6. FALSE
7. FALSE. White flight will not be reversed. Obama has to run on his record, and that record stands squarely against him being able to retain anything more than the ardently partisan. Independents are not likely to break his way.
8. FALSE. Obama’s “moderte” rating — weak, even by the polls cited here — will be unmasked as a the lie that it is when he starts Vetoing Republican legislation and with his rhetoric against Republicans and other Conservatives on the Campaign Trail. His own mouth and party will be his downfall here.
9. Could happen, but more likely its wishful thinking on the part of the left that Republicans will self-destructe. The massive sparring match between Obama and Hillary didn’t keep Obama from being elected. And, there’s no guarantee that Obama won’t be running for nomination unopposed.
10. True
11. True. This is one of the problems with illegal immigration, which leads to voter fraud via illegal voter registration.
12. True. But, similarly, there are several paths to 270 for Republicans. The Mid-terms demonstrate that Democrat control of certain states is not as much of a “given” as it once was when one takes into consideration the fickle attitude of the Independent voters relative to the economy.
In short, while several of the points made in the article are True, several are false and where they are false tends to undermine the weight of even those that are true. The economy and his own broken promises to his far-left constituency will be the elephant in the room at the Dem Convention. It will also be the elephant in the voting booth that will keep independents and some of his core base from voting for him. Many won’t vote, other will vote for 3rd party candidates, and still others will vote Republican (as happened in 2010). Don’t underestimate the impact of the Tea Party, nor the impact of the hyper-criticism of Tea Party or the Dems attempt to blame Republicans for the shootings in Arizona, etc.
I trust Mark McKinnon about as far as I can throw my dog.
The birth certificate is just part of the issue (a big part to be sure); it is also his admissions forms at Occidential College, his transcripts from all of the universities he studied at, and his method of financing his undergraduate and law school education.
__________________________________________________
True. And his passport records, his questionable Social Security number, his adoption records, and on and on and on....
14.
15.
We have to have a Republican candidate that proudly shows his birth certificate on a huge screen behind him everytime he makes a speech. A candidate that points out the he knows how many states there are in America and that America is a Christian nation. Doesn’t seem too hard to me, but the Republicans are so cowed by the media it’s sickening.
If the economy rebounds, Zero is likely to win reelection. If there is a double-dip recession, he’s done for — no matter who the Republicans nominate.
Is there anyone other than Sarah who has even had the strength of character to acknowledge there is an issue with Obama's citizenship?
I don't recall that it was ever mentioned at all in the McCain campaign.
As for point 12, I wonder if the author adjusted the electoral count to reflect the loss and gain for a number of states as a result of the 2010 census. If memory serves, some six votes go from blue to red states, which makes Obama a loser if he can’t carry these five states.
I don’t see that we have a single candidate other than Palin withe the guts to stand up to him. If we’re fighting in 2012, it’s with Palin at the lead.
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