RASMUSSEN POLL: Cain 29% Romney 29% Gingrich 10%... Developing...

Drudge ^ | 13 Oct 2011

[mandaladon]

RASMUSSEN POLL: Cain 29% Romney 29% Gingrich 10%... Developing...

[RedMDer]

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[sklar]

The Tea Party supports a Sales Tax and a VAT. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Personally, I'm crying.

But don't you agree Huck, that Cain's rise is because Palin is out & Perry imploded?

Cain's support is just like water being forced out of one bucket and into another. Not because of any groundswell resonance with his ( naive ) ideas or admiration of his ( non existent ) record.

[Nextrush]

Cain looks like the man at this point and if conservatives unite around him all the money and organization the RINO’s have can’t stop him.

[Nextrush]

I don’t like new taxes but others I talk to think a sales tax is a more “fair tax” that those living on welfare and such would pay.

[Future Useless Eater]

Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20 polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com.

I also weighted these polls by their size. For example, poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.

This charting method shows that not only is Herman Cain (at a 4-poll weighted average of 27.1%) ahead of Romney's (25.5%), but he has not peaked yet. He is still climbing!

4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20 Polls listed at RCP

Here is a table showing the LAST 3 sets of data points in that chart...

WEIGHTED Average Polling Data
Rasm = last 4polls [ Reut NBC PPP Rasm ]
 PPP = prior 4polls [ WP/B Reut NBC PPP ]
WP/B = prior 4polls [ Gall WP/B Reut NBC ]
...etc

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Cain	Perry	Paul	Gingrich	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Spread
Latest 4 Polls	10/6 - 10/12	2230	25.5%	27.1%	11.3%	9.6%	8.0%	4.6%	1.4%	2.2%	Cain +1.6
Prior 4 polls	10/6 - 10/10	1621	22.9%	23.2%	13.2%	8.5%	8.6%	4.8%	1.0%	1.7%	Cain +0.3
Prior 4 polls	10/3 - 10/10	2161	21.8%	19.2%	13.8%	9.1%	6.4%	4.8%	1.9%	1.8%	Romney +2.6

[AmericanInTokyo]

Perry will tank further. He might improve a bit in the debates but he is turning out to be more Fred Thompson than Ronald Reagan. A big surprise. Palin will endorse Cain otherwise she will lose her nationwide Tea Party creds and her financial fortunes will evaporate (consulting, TV work, books, speech circuit) It's simple math for her, she has to go with Cain now. Romney will trail off when more and more people realize what a phony he is--but his support from elites and RINO intelligentsia will remain strong--however it can only carry him so far. Herman Cain will continue to arise and maintain his positives, and it will go from "Little Mo" to "Big Mo". Thats how I think it will shake out, but its anyone's guess at this point. However, autumn will go fast and we will be in the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire in no time. I also feel that the issue is going to switch from one of "jobs" to "law and order" and increasingly violent segments of anarchist and communist agitators step up the pace of chaos and violence..with you know who loving every moment of it in the White House (Cloward Pivens/G-D America/Bitter Clingers)

[Future Useless Eater]

Correction, I had the latest Gingrich/Paul data messed up

I'd LOVE to see Gingrich over-take Perry... and he is almost there!
(...on a 4-poll weighted rolling average basis)
The momentum of Cain and Gingrich are both very encouraging.


Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20 polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com.

I also weighted these polls by their size. For example, poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.

This charting method shows that not only is Herman Cain (at a 4-poll weighted average of 27.1%) ahead of Romney's (25.5%), but he has not peaked yet. He is still climbing!

4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20 Polls listed at RCP

Here is a table showing the LAST 3 sets of data points in that chart...

WEIGHTED Average Polling Data
Rasm = last 4polls [ Reut NBC PPP Rasm ]
 PPP = prior 4polls [ WP/B Reut NBC PPP ]
WP/B = prior 4polls [ Gall WP/B Reut NBC ]
...etc

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Cain	Perry	Gingrich	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Spread
Latest 4 Polls	10/6 - 10/12	2230	25.5%	27.1%	11.3%	10.2%	7.4%	4.6%	1.4%	2.2%	Cain +1.6
Prior 4 polls	10/6 - 10/10	1621	22.9%	23.2%	13.2%	8.6%	8.5%	4.8%	1.0%	1.7%	Cain +0.3
Prior 4 polls	10/3 - 10/10	2161	21.8%	19.2%	13.8%	6.4%	9.1%	4.8%	1.9%	1.8%	Romney +2.6

[Brown Deer]

See some excellent polling analysis at posts 236 & 265 from Future Useless Eater

[FreedomPoster]

Nice work! Kudos.

[SF_Redux]

so really, which one is current leader of sound bites
Lois Cain, Lois Romney, Lois Perry ..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUTIPQxo21c

because sound bites is all I have learned from them, I believe Palin and Gingrich can go into great detail on about any subject of actual action

[guardian_of_liberty]

Please. he Sales Tax is nothing like the VAT. Do your homework.

[Vaquero]

right now I am shooting for Cain...I like Bachmann...but if Newt pushes to the top, I have no choice but to vote for him in the General...

[stephenjohnbanker]

Cain is the only decent candidate we have that can beat the Muslim Marxist.

Cain would sweep the south, and take half the black vote. How would he do this? The black churches are full there, and they now know Obama is a Muslim, and panders to them!

[mel]

Talking heads this am were saying in the end, GOP would rally around Romney even the right of center, i don’t believe it.
Melissa

[mel]

I have always like Gingrich (mostly). He is underutilized.

[mel]

I am glad to see Newt starting to rise. But I love Cain.

[NYCslicker]

“For the first time in my life” I’m proud of the nomination process.

[MestaMachine]

Amy man who can stand toe to toe with bill clinton, look him in the eye, and reduce him to a stammering, stuttering fool gets credit for having quite enough ‘political experience’ to qualify.

[bcsco]

Good stuff

[1010RD]

Right now, the electorate is calling for a Cain and Romney ticket. This is typical. Cain = Daddy and Romney = Mommy. As bad as Obama is the electorate never changes.