Azimuth Poll - Texas Primary (Cain 33%, Perry 18%, Romney 7%)

Azimuth Polling ^ | 10/19/11 | admin

[TexasFreeper2009]

In the aftermath of a successful performance in recent debates, our latest poll shows a surge in support for businessman Herman Cain among Texas Republican voters.

[Jedidah]

I have no idea when they polled, but the absolute best time to catch people at home is Sunday night.

[independent in tx]

Don’t be so sure. There’s still a lot of bad blood in Texas over the Perry - Kay Bailey Hutchison race. Rove and the Bushes endorsed Hutchison, but Perry won. It was a bitter race. I voted for Hutchison at the time but now I’m 100% behind Perry. It’s because he’s ours, warts and all, and we have a certain pride for him now.

[independent in tx]

Don’t be so sure. There’s still a lot of bad blood in Texas over the Perry - Kay Bailey Hutchison race. Rove and the Bushes endorsed Hutchison, but Perry won. It was a bitter race. I voted for Hutchison at the time but now I’m 100% behind Perry. It’s because he’s ours, warts and all, and we have a certain pride for him now.

[Forty-Niner]

“After listening to Paul for a couple of months, they realized he’s a nutcase.”

They coulda figured that out years ago......

[richmulv]

Wow! That poll says alot. Obviously the voters of Texas know that their Governor Rick Perry is not presidential timber. The folks at home are telling us to beware of Rick Perry. If you can’t carry your own house how can you carry the nation.Thank you Texas voters for sending a message.

[richmulv]

Wow! That poll says alot. Obviously the voters of Texas know that their Governor Rick Perry is not presidential timber. The folks at home are telling us to beware of Rick Perry. If you can’t carry your own house how can you carry the nation.Thank you Texas voters for sending a message.

[Politicalmom]

Bwahahahaaa!!!

I am SO happy.....

[BobL]

“I was excited to see him come on national stage, I was hoping he’d be the anti-Romney. But two of my very good friends are ultra-conservative Texans and they were dead set against Perry for similar reasons to you.”

We understand the excitement about Perry...he’s the governor of what is considered the best state-level success story in the country...and he was smart in not thinking that he could run the state economy from his desk.

However, he’s a flake otherwise, and even I have to admit being shocked at all the non-conservative crap he’s been responsible for and has attempted to impose on us (we rarely see much in the news). Hopefully he’s through, and Cain (maybe) will get his voters.

[BobL]

“Thank you for that post. Those harpies here on FR (along with about five odd males) are just beyond over the top with their snide attitudes.”

Annoying as hell. And they’re back at it again. But it won’t work this time...Cain’s support is rock-solid and it’s going to take more than a Johnny-come-lately energy plan or flat tax plan to make any headway, against us ‘heartless’ people.

[truthfreedom]

This Poll has Ron Paul at 19%, above Perry

[Future Useless Eater]

>>Not to put a damper on things, but this is from July 15:
>>It is an interesting data point, but don’t get overly enthused by a poll of this type. If some other polls show similar, then we can party!

No way is this TX poll from July. Cain was almost unheard of then.

I had been wondering if the Cain surge seen in many (but not all) recent polls was real.

So I guessed that a ballpark confirmation could be done using this Texas poll, plus the six STATE polls that came this week. One could guess those might represent the country as a whole pretty well, since it included TWO super liberal BLUE states (NH and HI) four battleground purple states ( IA OH FL SC) and one red state (TX)
If anything, the rest of the country might even lean MORE toward Cain as a whole.



I averaged these latest state polls, as follows:

	Sample	Cain	Romney	Gingrich	Paul	Perry	Bachman	Huntsman	Santorum	Spread
U.S. COMPOSITE	3449 GOP	30.7	22.2	9.1	8.5	7.7	5.2	2.0	unknown	Cain +8.5
TX	844 GOP	33	7	5	19	18	1	3	1	Cain +14
OH	500 GOP	34	19	14	7	5	6	1	1	Cain +15
HI	293 GOP	36	24	8	4	8	6	1	1	Cain +12
SC	476 GOP	32	16	8	6	12	6	1	NotAsked	Cain +16
FL	505 GOP	30.2	32.6	11.7	2.7	2.9	1.6	2	NotAsked	Romney +2.4
IA	GOP RV	26	18	12	10	6	11	1	NotAsked	Cain +8
NH	409 GOP	24	39	5	11	2	5	5	NotAsked	Romney +15
	Sample	Cain	Romney	Gingrich	Paul	Perry	Bachman	Huntsman	Santorum
U.S. ZOGBY	1214 GOP	45	21	6	8	7	1	3	3

I also show Zogby for comparison.... RealClearPolitics does not like them because they are an online poll.
But Zogby has 10% fewer 'undecided's than telephone polls... probably because those online pay closer attention to politics. ALSO, I see Michele B is low in the zogby and higher in the nationals, so it would seem Zogby relies more on men because more men use computers.

I also show a weighted 4-poll rolling average of recent national polls which also shows trend results similar to the 'composite' above.

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Oct 17]
plus the "YouGov" poll inserted chronologically

[Ingtar]

I was referring to the comment being from the July poll that showed Paul winning Texas over a non-entered Perry. My message was that their methodology is suspect. Cain being on top, while welcome, may not be reality and I don’t want to see huge disappointment hit the ranks if the next poll shows a different result.

[wolfcreek]

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/DriverLicense/identificationrequirements.htm

[DrewsMum]

Unless you buy a DL at the local fleamarket. Then you can use that as I.D. to vote....

[fabian]

Cain is the man!

[wolfcreek]

In my county, they check your ID against voter rolls.