If the dedicated half-truthers have any thing to say about it - right?
Posted on 11/26/2011 1:27:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind
I missed this ARG poll from just before Thanksgiving, taken over the course of a week among 600 likely Iowa caucus-goers, but it’s worth a look now. The top line results show Newt Gingrich moving into first place over Mitt Romney, 27% to 20%, with Ron Paul not too far back in third at 16%. No other candidate gets double digits in this result.
That more or less lines up with what other polling has shown. A survey taken a week previous to ARG’s by Rasmussen showed an even more substantial lead for Gingrich, 32/19, with Herman Cain falling into third place with 13%, and Paul fourth at 10%. Cain’s continued decline seems to have continued into the next week, perhaps giving Paul more support in the same period.
In the ARG series, this is Gingrich’s best showing since April, when he came in third behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The bimonthly survey series never showed Gingrich completely out of the running in Iowa, sticking at 8% over the summer while Michele Bachmann peaked at 21% in July and Romney peaked at the same 21% in late September. Thanks to the timing of the ARG surveys, the Cain boomlet never shows up on this series, and he’s back to the same 6% he had in September. Ron Paul, however, has hit the highest level of support in the series, better than July’s 14%, but he’s still not broken above third place.
There are a couple of intriguing points in the internals. First, Gingrich has a huge lead among Republicans (30/17 over Romney) but tanks to 3% among independent caucusgoers, while Romney leads 38% to Ron Paul’s 28% in this demographic. Gingrich nearly gets a majority of Tea Party supporters (42%), but comes in a distant second among those who don’t identify with the Tea Party, 29/13 behind Romney and just ahead of Paul’s 12%. But perhaps the most indicative figure — for now, anyway — is Gingrich’s substantial lead among the most likely to attend a caucus, 32/17 over Paul, a group that comprises 74% of the sample. Among the other 26%, Romney leads 38/12 over Gingrich and Paul.
Enthusiasm seems to be on Gingrich’s side. Romney can claim some moral victory and momentum with a second-place finish no matter who wins, but a Gingrich win will complicate his ability to argue inevitability and lock down the nomination in South Carolina.
On the other hand, we’ve gotten a lot of e-mail about a PAC-funded survey that shows Ron Paul and Herman Cain tied for the lead in Iowa at 22% each, with Gingrich at 21% and Romney at 17%. However, since that survey got funded by the Revolution PAC — the super-PAC backing Paul — it should be taken with a Lot’s Wife-sized grain of salt.
Has Ralph Nadar crawled out from under his rock yet?
Or maybe Iowan Evangelicals are really CHRISTIAN and don't presume to judge another on sins of many years ago when the man has admitted them, asked for forgiveness and has been practicing being a good Christian since.
MAYBE some Christians observe the 10 Commandments and don't presume to judge.
Some who call themselves Christians don't act Christian...ergo, have some self retrospection to attend to? . Altho' they many not have succumbed to the same 'sins' as Newt did - I rather suspicion they can't look in the mirror and say "I am sinless. I am pure"
"A clear conscience if usually the sign of a poor memory.
If the dedicated half-truthers have any thing to say about it - right?
True that. But he/she does have a passionate goal: Newt bashing - with half truths
There might be a sizable pro-divorcing your wife on her deathbed (I know, the tumor wasn’t cancerous, etc)
That was the sentence, which you took half of.
There was no debunking. She was in the hospital. FACT.
She was having a tumor removed. FACT. Newt went to the hospital and discussed the terms of the divorce while there.
The daughter is in no position to debunk something her mother said.
Independents and women are a challenge, but given the actual history of Newt’s background, I think they will come around.
If Perry is going to make a surge, it had better be soon. If he could pull a monster debate performance out of the hat, then that would make people sit up and take notice. The story line would be: “Inexperience overcome.”
Cain is down right now, and I don’t see 999 becoming a hot topic again. He, too, will have a problem with independents and women. Also with pro-lifers. Like it or not, the allegations hurt him, so did the pro-choice comments, and so did the foreign policy gaffes. What does Cain have to do? He has to make himself believable again.
Santorum’s inability to get traction puzzles me. He’s a friendly man, a very bright and deep man, and a solid pro-life, pro-family candidate. He’s very articulate, knowledgeable, and determined. Can it be lack of money? If he’s going to make a bold move, the time is now.
Bachmann is another I don’t think is coming back, but what do I know. I believe she was stero-typed by the mental retardation thing, her repetitions about obamacare, lawyer, mother of 24, and her caustic attacks on other candidates. While she might injure those opponents, it doesn’t leave their former supporters with a pleasant taste about you in their mouths. I do not want to injure her ability to hold onto her seat in Congress.
Paul has a rabid, vocal following, and my fear is not a third party with Paul. I would fear just as much these paulistas turning in mass to the libertarian party. I do believe Rand Paul could abort that if he spoke out. Paul’s foreign policy comments doom him, but his following is large, and they will need a bone.
In my mind this is a Gingrich/Perry/Romney race right now, with Cain in the wings and Bachmann and Santorum on hold.
Independents and women are a challenge, but given the actual history of Newt’s background, I think they will come around.
If Perry is going to make a surge, it had better be soon. If he could pull a monster debate performance out of the hat, then that would make people sit up and take notice. The story line would be: “Inexperience overcome.”
Cain is down right now, and I don’t see 999 becoming a hot topic again. He, too, will have a problem with independents and women. Also with pro-lifers. Like it or not, the allegations hurt him, so did the pro-choice comments, and so did the foreign policy gaffes. What does Cain have to do? He has to make himself believable again.
Santorum’s inability to get traction puzzles me. He’s a friendly man, a very bright and deep man, and a solid pro-life, pro-family candidate. He’s very articulate, knowledgeable, and determined. Can it be lack of money? If he’s going to make a bold move, the time is now.
Bachmann is another I don’t think is coming back, but what do I know. I believe she was stero-typed by the mental retardation thing, her repetitions about obamacare, lawyer, mother of 24, and her caustic attacks on other candidates. While she might injure those opponents, it doesn’t leave their former supporters with a pleasant taste about you in their mouths. I do not want to injure her ability to hold onto her seat in Congress.
Paul has a rabid, vocal following, and my fear is not a third party with Paul. I would fear just as much these paulistas turning in mass to the libertarian party. I do believe Rand Paul could abort that if he spoke out. Paul’s foreign policy comments doom him, but his following is large, and they will need a bone.
In my mind this is a Gingrich/Romney race right now, with Perry and Cain in the wings and Bachmann and Santorum on hold. Paul is there and his following is large enough for him to expect respect. I don’t know how to trade supporters, but if he can do that, then he might negotiate a cabinet position at the IRS. That would be fun, actually.
The ‘Blue Republicans’ who are really dems or socialists/marxists account for a portion of his ‘devotees’! They want him to bring about ‘world peace’!
Vote for Paul and you will end up with soetoro/obama for 4 more years.
How selfish/stupid can a voter be to vote in such way as to keep in power a usurper/dictator/anti-American/anti-constitution, divisive, hyprcritical liar who is hell-bent on destroying America?
Lol, I was a big supporter of Newt until Newt pulled this amnesty stuff for illegals. Sorry I just can't go there.
It will work to gut his campaign. Newt already has tons of baggage that make him immensely disliked and such stories will just reinforce that. And what's worse, he's not even conservative. So why are we doing this when there's viable alternatives?
Totally agree with you on Santorum, he let us down with Specter but he's a still a good candidate who could sell nationally.
Latest rumor is Palin may get back in and at this point I would almost beg her to do it because I'm beginning to sense that some conservatives are once again falling for the McCain trap.
FACT - the daughter did debunk the story. The divorce was discussed long before the alleged hospital falsehood. If there was a discussion there, it was one that continued after it was disclosed to the children. FACT
FACT - the ex wife said something different.
The daughter can’t debunk something her mother said. Debunk is the wrong word. Disagrees with?
The daughter disagrees with what the mother said. I don’t care. I’m going with the old story. You can go with the “time to step up, dad is running for President” story if you want.
Good for you then. LOL!
You for some reason would rather believe a daughter talking about it 30 years later who wants her dad to become President, rather than the woman who it happened to, discussing it 4 years after it happened.
It’s much more likely that the ex-wifes story is more likely than the daughters story.
But you’re a Newt supporter, because McCain was such a fine choice in 2008, and you’re taking the cover story.
Ridiculous.
And yet the woman it happened to has not come out to refute her daughter's version of the story. Now who's being ridiculous. LOL!
Well, no one came forward for over 20 years to refute the first wifes version.
It’s clear that the daughter’s story is just made up to help her dad.
You’re ridiculous, LOL!
I guess we could keep arguing about this for 20 years. That would be ridiculous. LOL!
Either way, the voters will make up their mind. Let’s hope that make the right choice and that doesn’t mean Newt because he’s up in the polls. It means they make the obvious, conservative choice.
And since Newt isn’t conservative, it would be someone else.
Stop the presses. We agree. LOL!
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