THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
Posted on 12/23/2011 8:03:46 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Your Move, Beijing: Big Year Ahead for Chinese Navy
At a meeting in Beijing in December, Chinese president Hu Jintao had a powerful message for officials from the People's Liberation Army Navy. "Prepare for war," Hu said, using a Mandarin term -- junshi douzheng -- that means "conflict in general."
Amplified and misrepresented by the foreign media, Hu's words echoed across Asia and the Pacific Ocean, alarming observers in Japan, India and other nations and eliciting a cool response from the U.S. Navy. "Nobody's looking for a scrap here," Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told AFP. "Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity to develop naval forces."
"Hu was highlighting the importance of continued naval modernization," pointed out M. Taylor Fravel, a professor of security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Chinese president's statement "does not refer to a desire to go war, much less preparations for specific combat operations," Fravel said.
But the tizzy over Mandarin semantics belies a more serious issue. In a little less than a decade -- about as long as it takes the U.S. to fund, build and commission a single aircraft carrier -- the PLAN has evolved from a coastal defense force to the early stages of a blue-water navy worthy of concern.
As part of its 11th five-year military plan beginning in 2006, China has: commissioned dozens of new frigates, destroyers, submarines and amphibious ships; begun sea trials of the country's first aircraft carrier, the former Soviet Varyag; deployed ships overseas for the first time in modern Chinese history; and developed a "carrier-killer" system that combines ocean-surveillance satellites, drones and maneuverable Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles.
The past few years have
(Excerpt) Read more at defense.aol.com ...
Targets of opportunity.
Let the Chinese Navy tanks overrun North Korea!
If -- big if -- we had a naval war with China, we might start strong, and have one victory after another. But we simply could not replace any material losses we might suffer. The massive industrial base in China could churn out ships and planes and replace whatever we destroyed. Eventually, they would score some solid victories, and we would simply not recover.
This was a pretty limp ending to the article. All militaries prepare for war. And all political leaders try to raise troop morale by telling their militaries that they're not just parade ground soldiers and their role is a vital one. The difference with China is its pattern of armed clashes over territorial issues with half-a-dozen countries in the 60 year time frame after the Communist takeover.
Well said.
>>Eventually, they would score some solid victories, and we would simply not recover.<<
.
I guess you’re expecting a protracted war.
“But we simply could not replace any material losses we might suffer.”
But, couldn’t we get some Mexicans to slap together a few steel mills and start building some planes, tanks and ships???/s;)
That massive industrial base will not be able to churn out oil to drive their war machine. That is their Achilles’ heel.
1) Protracted war -- we fight these a lot, but we fight to lose. There is no way we could win a protracted war against China. Economically, politically, militarily, we haven't a hope.
2) Atomic war -- we could win this way, but we don't fight this way. Just ain't gonna happen.
3) Undignified appeasement and surrender -- China can do anything it wants with its military: we won't even pretend to try and stop them. And they know it.
3 options. And 2 of them are jokes. Only option 3 is really on the table.
looking for a scrap? nah. we’re just devaluing our dollar... the same dollars we owe them
imagine if you lent someone $1000 and they paid you back a total of $250. how pissed would you be?
that’s what we’re doing to the chinese
Not if that industrial base was under pinpoint air attack. As you know, the US mainland was not bombed in WWII. The Chinese would not have this advantage.
Mark Steyn, writing for Maclean’s magazine, recently outlined some startling facts regarding the U.S. debt:
“By 2010, about half our debt was owned by foreigners, and somewhere over a quarter of that was held by the Chinese (officially).
“What does that mean? In 2010, the U.S. spent about $663 billion on its military, China about $78 billion. If the People’s Republic carries on buying American debt at the rate it has in recent times, then within a few years U.S. interest payment on that debt will be covering the entire cost of the Chinese armed forces.
In 2010, the Pentagon issued an alarming report to Congress on Beijing’s massive military buildup, upgrading bombers, and an aircraft carrier research and development program intended to challenge U.S. dominance in the Pacific. What the report didn’t mention is who’s paying for it.”
Steyn goes on to reveal the answer: “Mr. and Mrs. America.” It is a sound biblical principle that “the borrower is servant to the lender” (Proverbs 22:7). The U.S. should be very mindful that the deeper it goes into debt, the more its resources will be redirected to those nations who hold that debt.
They sure could.
But they wouldn't. We don't allow ourselves to fight wars in ways in which civilian casualties might be a possibility.
It’s 1937 again, but the old Japan is the new China —sort of.
There will be some manufactured incident, but the real cause will be OIL.
Reality is a bit more complicated. If you remain superior you prevent the instability we are discussing here. Unfortuately we may be too stupid in the long run to maintain superiority.
If you believe the war will remain conventional, it seems to me one US advantage is allies with decent armies and navies in a supporting role. Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, India, even Vietnam. Possibly England and European powers, as well.
If the war is nuclear or escalates there, all bets are off. Don’t forget the Chinese can inflict horrendous damage here. We can return the favor but the Chinese are counting on us not wanting the USA as a smouldering radioactive wreck and millions of casualties.
All this is why we should remain strong in the first place.
Also, the Russians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Arabs, and North Koreans could attack us at the same time and wipe us out in a day.
China will only risk attack with full assurance from the Russians et al that they will also attack.
China is NOT stupid.
See the tagline ...
The US has two enemies, Islam and China. US needs income to pay down their debt. Here is the quandary. If we develop shale oil and gas, we can be net exporter to generate income and pay our debts/employ Americans. This undermines Iran and Saudi Arabia as oil prices drop. Problem is cheap oil benefits Chinese economy thus rise of Chinese regional military might in Far East. Go the other way, moderate oil and NG development, lower employment slower debt repayment, Chinese economy slowed by higher cost oil and inflation, but Iran and Saudi Arabia shaky regimes have money to placate unrest and fund terrorism. The US has a two front strategic headache plus third front - inability to deal with looming gov deficits. Whoever is POTUS in 2013 must deal with this financial and two front balancing act on potential threats.
The Chinese maybe could send out to sea one carrier group. Easy pickings for our subs.
***
What’s to keep any subs from any country from launching a full spread against any of our carriers and taking it out?
Do you know what consists of a battle group?
It's the only game our politicians know.
How will it end? Can't go on forever.
May I present option 4?
China continues to build and prepare for war. But no one ever challenges her, nor does she challenge anyone else. Yet, as the decades past, America eventually needs to go to war again, akin to actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., but different countries in the future. China on the other hand, has a military on par with the US, in man power, equipment, etc. But it has been politically incorrect for China to engage, so, her military spends most of her days sailing around the world, making port calls, with their sailors sipping margaritas, or whatever drinks the Chinese sailors and soldier enjoy.
Americans slowly get fed up with this. China enjoys, commercial success from the stability America brings while American soldiers come home wounded. And American politicians and the American public begin to vehemently press the Chinese to engage in world affairs.
A green and reluctant Chinese military slowly begins to engage, and slowly begins the long process of sharing the role of the world's policeman with the US. And eventually, even exceed the role of the US.
Sounds far fetched given the atmosphere of fear of any possible Chinese engagement. But I'm absolutely positively convinced that will be the scenario of the future.
“Let the Chinese Navy tanks overrun North Korea!”
The Chinese Navy is part of the People’s Liberation Army. So, I guess they do have tanks. :)
That’s just one of a myriad of scenarios that sees us in serious decline. So far we’ve had no more luck getting this looked at and fixed, than the tax credit extension.
Our party is about as impotent as a political party could be.
We have a president on the ropes, and our guys are feverishly toweling him off and giving him water. So far it looks for all the world like our guys are going to hand him a second term.
Anybody seen that overhead shot of the Varyag? Holy cow that thing looks wide enough for a drywall factory and a couple baby milk factories.
Looks like it will make a grand target. Maybe they really designed it to recover the Buran at sea.
How exactly would Chinese industry be under pin-point air attack? Their integrated air defense system network is nothing like the useless KARI network that was faced in Iraq. The only system that has a chance of penetrating the Chinese IADS is the B-2 Spirit(it is stealthy PLUS has the range). Every other system wouldn't make it.
Problem is two fold - first of all there are not enough Spirits, and second of all stealthiness against an advanced IADS may also need active standoff jamming from other platforms that do not have the range to go in. Can strategic air strikes be done deep in Chinese territory? Yes they can. Can they be many of them? No. Already the British have shown (quite some years back) that they could track the B-2.
The Chinese IADS is geared against four types of foes - a limited strike (Taiwan moving against the 3 Gorges), a forceful strike (Indian assets moving in in a limited strike), a powerful strike from Russia, and a powerful strike from the US. Manned platforms over China, even stealthy planes, would be a tough sell.
An option would be massive cruise missile strikes. Which is one reason why the US converted some Ohios into massive Tomahawk missile carriers (similar to the Russian cruise missile submarines). However, there is a problem there as well. The Iraq war almost depleted Tomahawk reserves. Imagine a war against China?
Anyways, the US would win. But it would be a tough slog, wouldn't be anything like all the various conflicts the US has engaged in in the last 4 decades (the Bosnias, Iraqs, Afghanistans, Grenadas, Somalias, Panamas, and now Democratic Republic of Congo and Northern Uganda). It will require pro US government (not the folk currently in place), and will require and end to the transference of technologies to China. However, when it comes to air strikes against Chinese targets, as we speak that has been out of the question for the last half decade at least.
how will it end?
this is how wars start that aren’t based on starvation, religion, or ideology (which is just another form of religion)
The Japanese had planes and equipment. They had ships and planes that could not get to the fight, what they didn’t have was oil.
Even with that they still kept fighting until the bombs dropped.
Also, the Russians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Arabs, and North Koreans could attack us at the same time and wipe us out in a day.
You forget the citizenry still have guns
BINGO!!!!
.....but Russia does. One of the books that seems to always stick with me was Tom Clancy’s, The bear and the dragon.
The Chicoms will probably attack the Russians before they attack us.
There is no power without oil.
Should the ChiComs start a war where the USA is involved, China's economy will take a nose dive. And, if the USA is involved, so is every other freedom loving country, like it or not. In the short run and long run, China, IMO, has more to lose.
Anyone curious about how many in this thread are chinocommie moles? Perhaps they’re taking anti china positions for now, perhaps they’re just practicing, perhaps they’re just lurking, but they are here, studying you.
And, most likely, that’s what it will be.
I looked it up after I asked you. Destroyers, Frigates, Subs, ...
I still don’t understand why torpedoes can’t be programmed to dodge or go under everything and head straight for a carrier. If so, can torpedoes be shot down the way patriot missiles can shoot down Scuds?
“Worse, China and Russia have formed a military alliance even bringing Pakistan into their military alliance; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. “
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2810247/posts
Russians are an oil exporter, and the Arabs have as much as us, and Venezuela has plenty.
Please read the following also.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2681926/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2677073/posts
Please read the following. They are all against us, and they have plenty of help from the inside, especially if the Right or Left revolt against the government.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2810247/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2681926/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2677073/posts
A civil war would invite invasion. We’d be too distracted to defend.
.....Cooperation Pacts aren't worth the paper they're printed on when it comes to energy and raw materials. The Chinese have had their eyes on Siberia forever and Pakistan plays the part of Italy in this triumvirate.
.....Cooperation Pacts aren't worth the paper they're printed on when it comes to energy and raw materials. The Chinese have had their eyes on Siberia forever and Pakistan plays the part of Italy in this triumvirate.
However there’s one big distinction there.
Germany and Japan for all the Axis power propaganda were essentially lone rangers with no realistic allies. China has created an alliance of rogue states at vital locations, including with nuclear weapons.
Draw a line from Iran via Pakistan via Myanmar via North Korea. They seem conveniently close to China’s oil routes from the Gulf.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.