THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
Posted on 12/23/2011 8:03:46 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Your Move, Beijing: Big Year Ahead for Chinese Navy
At a meeting in Beijing in December, Chinese president Hu Jintao had a powerful message for officials from the People's Liberation Army Navy. "Prepare for war," Hu said, using a Mandarin term -- junshi douzheng -- that means "conflict in general."
Amplified and misrepresented by the foreign media, Hu's words echoed across Asia and the Pacific Ocean, alarming observers in Japan, India and other nations and eliciting a cool response from the U.S. Navy. "Nobody's looking for a scrap here," Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told AFP. "Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity to develop naval forces."
"Hu was highlighting the importance of continued naval modernization," pointed out M. Taylor Fravel, a professor of security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Chinese president's statement "does not refer to a desire to go war, much less preparations for specific combat operations," Fravel said.
But the tizzy over Mandarin semantics belies a more serious issue. In a little less than a decade -- about as long as it takes the U.S. to fund, build and commission a single aircraft carrier -- the PLAN has evolved from a coastal defense force to the early stages of a blue-water navy worthy of concern.
As part of its 11th five-year military plan beginning in 2006, China has: commissioned dozens of new frigates, destroyers, submarines and amphibious ships; begun sea trials of the country's first aircraft carrier, the former Soviet Varyag; deployed ships overseas for the first time in modern Chinese history; and developed a "carrier-killer" system that combines ocean-surveillance satellites, drones and maneuverable Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles.
The past few years have
(Excerpt) Read more at defense.aol.com ...
The Chinese maybe could send out to sea one carrier group. Easy pickings for our subs.
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What’s to keep any subs from any country from launching a full spread against any of our carriers and taking it out?
Do you know what consists of a battle group?
It's the only game our politicians know.
How will it end? Can't go on forever.
May I present option 4?
China continues to build and prepare for war. But no one ever challenges her, nor does she challenge anyone else. Yet, as the decades past, America eventually needs to go to war again, akin to actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., but different countries in the future. China on the other hand, has a military on par with the US, in man power, equipment, etc. But it has been politically incorrect for China to engage, so, her military spends most of her days sailing around the world, making port calls, with their sailors sipping margaritas, or whatever drinks the Chinese sailors and soldier enjoy.
Americans slowly get fed up with this. China enjoys, commercial success from the stability America brings while American soldiers come home wounded. And American politicians and the American public begin to vehemently press the Chinese to engage in world affairs.
A green and reluctant Chinese military slowly begins to engage, and slowly begins the long process of sharing the role of the world's policeman with the US. And eventually, even exceed the role of the US.
Sounds far fetched given the atmosphere of fear of any possible Chinese engagement. But I'm absolutely positively convinced that will be the scenario of the future.
“Let the Chinese Navy tanks overrun North Korea!”
The Chinese Navy is part of the People’s Liberation Army. So, I guess they do have tanks. :)
That’s just one of a myriad of scenarios that sees us in serious decline. So far we’ve had no more luck getting this looked at and fixed, than the tax credit extension.
Our party is about as impotent as a political party could be.
We have a president on the ropes, and our guys are feverishly toweling him off and giving him water. So far it looks for all the world like our guys are going to hand him a second term.
Anybody seen that overhead shot of the Varyag? Holy cow that thing looks wide enough for a drywall factory and a couple baby milk factories.
Looks like it will make a grand target. Maybe they really designed it to recover the Buran at sea.
How exactly would Chinese industry be under pin-point air attack? Their integrated air defense system network is nothing like the useless KARI network that was faced in Iraq. The only system that has a chance of penetrating the Chinese IADS is the B-2 Spirit(it is stealthy PLUS has the range). Every other system wouldn't make it.
Problem is two fold - first of all there are not enough Spirits, and second of all stealthiness against an advanced IADS may also need active standoff jamming from other platforms that do not have the range to go in. Can strategic air strikes be done deep in Chinese territory? Yes they can. Can they be many of them? No. Already the British have shown (quite some years back) that they could track the B-2.
The Chinese IADS is geared against four types of foes - a limited strike (Taiwan moving against the 3 Gorges), a forceful strike (Indian assets moving in in a limited strike), a powerful strike from Russia, and a powerful strike from the US. Manned platforms over China, even stealthy planes, would be a tough sell.
An option would be massive cruise missile strikes. Which is one reason why the US converted some Ohios into massive Tomahawk missile carriers (similar to the Russian cruise missile submarines). However, there is a problem there as well. The Iraq war almost depleted Tomahawk reserves. Imagine a war against China?
Anyways, the US would win. But it would be a tough slog, wouldn't be anything like all the various conflicts the US has engaged in in the last 4 decades (the Bosnias, Iraqs, Afghanistans, Grenadas, Somalias, Panamas, and now Democratic Republic of Congo and Northern Uganda). It will require pro US government (not the folk currently in place), and will require and end to the transference of technologies to China. However, when it comes to air strikes against Chinese targets, as we speak that has been out of the question for the last half decade at least.
how will it end?
this is how wars start that aren’t based on starvation, religion, or ideology (which is just another form of religion)
The Japanese had planes and equipment. They had ships and planes that could not get to the fight, what they didn’t have was oil.
Even with that they still kept fighting until the bombs dropped.
Also, the Russians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Arabs, and North Koreans could attack us at the same time and wipe us out in a day.
You forget the citizenry still have guns
BINGO!!!!
.....but Russia does. One of the books that seems to always stick with me was Tom Clancy’s, The bear and the dragon.
The Chicoms will probably attack the Russians before they attack us.
There is no power without oil.
Should the ChiComs start a war where the USA is involved, China's economy will take a nose dive. And, if the USA is involved, so is every other freedom loving country, like it or not. In the short run and long run, China, IMO, has more to lose.
Anyone curious about how many in this thread are chinocommie moles? Perhaps they’re taking anti china positions for now, perhaps they’re just practicing, perhaps they’re just lurking, but they are here, studying you.
And, most likely, that’s what it will be.
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