Skip to comments.David Limbaugh: Sometimes Caution Can Backfire (The GOP ruling class better wake up!)
Posted on 12/26/2011 1:10:12 PM PST by neverdem
There seems to be a common line of demarcation separating two basic factions on the political right in the various skirmishes we have fought against Barack Obama, from their markedly different approaches to the budget battles to their differences in sizing up the GOP presidential candidates.
On one side we have the more moderate group, which is more cautious, less risk averse, less excitable, self-consciously pragmatic and more tolerant toward an establishment ruling class, even if not per se establishment itself. On the other side are those who perceive more urgency in our current national condition, are more adamant about adhering to conservative principles to reverse this catastrophe and reject the charge that they are recklessly purist.
Many from the first group have urged restraint and pragmatism in the budget negotiations, insisting it was too risky to force a government shutdown with Obama, that the big prize is 2012 and the best way to secure it is to avoid taking a hard line, which would hand Obama 2012 propaganda ammunition.
In each round of budget battles, with a spirit of defeatism and resignation, they warned against Republican brinksmanship, because they were convinced Obama would automatically win every PR victory. It was as though they had forgotten who'd won the 2010 congressional elections.
Obviously, they didn't believe Republicans could convince the electorate that they had the better argument, even though they were the ones drawing a line in the sand on spending, which was what caused the crisis. Also, they had no confidence that Republicans could persuade voters that Democrats were lying when they said that the government would actually default on its major obligations.
The first group seemed less outraged that the entire ruling class, including our GOP guys, allowed mere reductions in spending increases to be called spending cuts. Nor were they as troubled when our guys, instead of saying, "Sorry, folks, this is the best we can do under a dishonest socialist president," came closer to saying, "Hey, we've achieved a pretty good deal here in real terms."
This group assured us it was holding its major firepower for the 2012 elections. Yet 2012 is here, and they still seem reluctant to bring out the heavy artillery. They are giving their full-throated support to Mr. Caution himself, Mitt Romney, once again saying we can't afford the risk of putting our support behind someone more conservative.
It appears they believe that national elections are a zero-sum game with a fixed number of voters in both the Democrat and Republican camps, and that whichever candidate attracts more independents (who are always presumed, in this static analysis, to constitute 20 percent of the electorate) will win.
This reasoning strikes me as flawed because: a) twice as many people self-identify as conservatives than as liberals (this is different from party ID, but still); b) history invalidates the theory -- e.g., Reagan; c) no one really knows what the amorphous term "independent" means; d) with a president as extremist and destructive as Obama, independents are much less likely to fall his way, and more likely to be receptive to conservative ideas, because they represent the opposite of Obama's failed policies, and e) it discounts the various aspects of voter intensity: 1) certain candidates will energize their base more, 2) certain ones might alienate some in their base so badly they stay home, and 3) certain ones may scare the otherwise apathetic independents and even members of the opposite party to vote for the other guy.
The first group, generally speaking, is falling into Romney's camp, arguing that he is the safest bet and that we can't afford any risks, given the enormity of the stakes. I'm just not so sure. So many number-crunching Republican analysts said he was a shoe-in for the nomination in 2008, but their static analysis failed. Romney does not energize the base, especially the tea party, or anyone else for that matter. His appeal is not that he inspires, but that he supposedly doesn't repel. But in fact, to the contrary, he does repel a good number of conservatives, because they don't trust him in general and/or don't trust he's a conservative.
Ironically, many who've laid claim to sober, adult political analyses the past few years and have scolded others for their alleged harshness in attacking Obama are the very ones who have thrown caution overboard in their relentless, unmeasured scorched-earth savagery of Newt Gingrich.
Though recognizing his weaknesses, I prefer Newt Gingrich over Mitt, and Rick Santorum and maybe Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann over both. But without hesitation, I'll vote for Romney should he get the nomination. Can the Romney supporters say the same about Newt?
If you are voting in Virginia you won’t get to vote for Perry.
It sounds as though what they did in VA is illegal:
Of course I don’t want any dirty tricks and I would still vote for Gingrich if I had no other choice. So far the entire election “Year” is a criminal sewer.
I don't care what Romney supporters do with Newt. I'll not support Romney, period.
Any conservative will actively oppose him in the primary, and all full (fiscal + social) conservatives will actively oppose him in the general and work against him.
David Limbaugh said: I prefer Newt Gingrich over Mitt, and Rick Santorum.....over both.
I’m telling you; Rick Santorum will be the surprise coming out of Iowa.
Gallup today has Obama now at 47% approval.
Wait until the campaign really starts and Newt mops the floor with him in the Debates.
I prefer Bachmann more than Santorum, but I’ll vote for Newt if that’s the way to prevent Romney. Who know’s who’ll still be standing when NY’s primary comes? I joined the GOP to vote for Thompson in 2008. He was gone when the primary came. I voted for Romney to prevent McCain.
LOL! A lot of libertartans killed us for the idiotic ban on internet gambling. My only satisfaction was seeing its RINO sponsor, Jim Leach tossed. The weasel SOB backed Obama in 2008. Obama picked him to head the National Endowment for the Humanities!
Assuming you are in VA, you will get to vote for either the flipflopper or the kook, so which will it be?
Well, I never voted for Romney. I voted for Sarah, though. To be frank, I think the nominee this year is going to be Romney (though I hope not), and if so I won’t be voting.
mrsmel: “If a socialist is going to take this nation down (and if either Romney or Obama get elected this is a given), let the left take all the responsibility for it. I dont want even the name of conservativism anywhere near this coming fiasco.”
razorback-bert: “I will write in my dog, rather than vote for Romney. If I am to have a socialist, I want one that is outed.”
Yeah, what YOU said. Why put off the inevitable? Let’s get it over with so we can start all over again. :)
These things are very real portents in Virginia. The last time this happened the good old boys running state government government managed to get the place burned to the ground and all the young men killed.
Not going to let that happen
Obviously they didn't learn any lessons with McCain, why would they learn them with Romney? But I agree, if he's the nominee, we'll have four more years of Obama.
This is shaping up to be a repeat of 2008, where all the truly conservative candidates are eliminated before the conservative areas even get a vote. And like 2008, it will end badly for the Republic. (As an aside, the spell checker suggested "Asama" and "Omar" for Obama... Seems appropriate, but I wonder who has been playing in the spell checker database?)
El Gato, how you doing? I hope all is well with you and yours.
I can’t stand reading about all this any more. How is it happening? Will we be left with only steaming piles to vote for? Is it a nightmare we can wake up from?
See FReep mail.
But I agree, I've not been on FR much for the same reason. Instead I've been connecting or reconnecting with extended family and some very old friends via Facebook.
I’m still hoping Palin somehow gets back in the race by some crazy circumstance but I try not to think about it.
IF Romney gets the nomination, I’ll be supporting a new party that will take on both the Republican and Democrat parties with the goal of taking down and replacing the GOP. I’m betting there will be a whole lot of “tea party” folks ready, willing and champing at the bit to take on this challenge.
“If David Limbaugh prefers Newt...could this mean Rush does too?”
Rush said, about a week ago, that he LOVES Santorum, although he might love a couple of others, as well.
Go, TEA Party!!
Rebellion is brewing!!
Been saying this since the General Election in 2004 where we started to lose ground in Congress...
Unfortunately, being a part of the “establishment” it is hard to justify my concerns to the leadership in this party, if they still see things through rose-colored glasses...
So now we get what we have been apathetic about since that time...
An energized voting base of mindless twits that vote for the color of one’s skin, before looking at the content of their hearts...
We will not change this liberal/progressive/socialist base at all next year...
So if the GOP leadership wants to continue down this primrose (feckless) path, they do so at their own peril...
I’m not impressed with any of the GOP candidates this go around...But I will do what we have to do to wrestle control back and try to reverse the policies and actions taken by this current administration...
But, when you get right down to it...The democrats will not allow this to happen, even from a position in the minority, and they know exactly what buttons to push to get the current Republicans to cave in and not make waves in the next cycle...
I’m not impressed with our chances either...I don’t think there are enough true conservatives out there who are willing to take the fight to these feckless “representatives” and make an impact...
I would love to be proven wrong...
Think about this. THe GOP wants you and me to leave. They don't WANT us voting in their primaries. If we leave they can get even more progressive candidates. I will stay just to be a thorn in their side.