Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
Newt exactly where McCain was 4 years ago, but McCain won NH. Newt has to have SC or he’s out.
Right. FOX has Romney and Santorum tied at 24%, with Paul just behind at 23%.
30% of precincts reporting.
THanks for the info
Just the fact that Romney will be in the top 3 and it is close, means he will blow everyone else out in the upcoming primaries. Just a few weeks ago, he wasn’t even spending any effort in Iowa. And was expected to be a distant from the winner. This shows that the R’s are starting to align with Romney. He will win SC, and NH big. And then his strong organization will show as they move into the other states. Iowa is rarely a predictor of the eventual nominee.
I know a lot on here don’t like Romney, and I am not crazy about him either. But having watched politics closely for 50+ years, I feel pretty confident Mitt will wrap this up my Feb/March.
There are Conservatives running in this fiasco ? which ones are they ? because all i see is wannabees and rinos !
I'd say anything over 5 points in Iowa is a solid win. In politics, you also have to beat the spread as well as your opponent. A 1% win is a tie, or in many cases a loss when it's looked at by supporters. If Romney had beat his expectations (5%+), he would be sitting in a very nice position. Now he has to shore up his game in Florida quite a bit.
True. ASAP! One is out of the race for sure and another or more or less of it by all indications. They need to pick and endorse NOW, in this coming week, between Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney (and to a lesser extend Ron Paul) need to be stopped ASAP and that will only come through top level endorsements and conservative unity. Now is the time, in the next 48 to 72 hours.
Yea, the establishmnent always wins because the sheeple can’t figure out what is happening.
It’s a mystery to me, also. Santorum has experience in the Senate; he has an impeccable personal life; he is youthful and attractive; he is 100% conservative.
What’s not to like?
Like I said, I’m not a Paultard. Just reporting what the folks I work with say.
Romney 7,844 24% Santorum 7,726 24% Paul 7,655 23% Gingrich 4,440 14% Perry 3,433 11% Bachmann 1,932 6% Huntsman 211 <1% Cain 11 <1%
Agreed. Perry won’t drop out. Paul’s Iowa vote will be discounted, Romney will squeak out a win in New Hampshire and Perry will win South Carolina.
In which case the GOP will have managed to do the almost impossible - lose an election to a one-term wonder like Obama. Romney will not win in a general election against Obama, period. The number of independents and moderates who would find Romney more appealing than Obama is a lot smaller than the number of conservatives - fiscal and conservative - who will simply sit on the sidelines because they cannot stomache Romney.
Well, you could vote Constitution Party then, if you are not satisfied. I suppose.
Sickening.
Fox Panel...Newt will go forward no matter. Mitt was not be prepared to take on Santorum.
DREAM ON
Dr. Paul IN A FEW WEEKS WILL BE A THREE TIME LOOSER...BEING HIS THIRD TIME RUNNING FOR POTUS...
THE GUY IS READY FOR A NURSING HOME..78 YEARS OLD AND WANTING TO LEAD US???? MAKES ME LAUGH OUT LOUD.
I don’t think think Romney has a prayer in South Carolina.
The way these dumbies are voting, if Obamao were on the ballot today, he’d easily win!
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