Posted on 01/17/2012 10:28:06 AM PST by Qbert
Newt Gingrich has told voters in South Carolina not to vote for Rick Santorum because Santorum can’t defeat either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama. In particular, Gingrich made an appeal to conservatives: “If you're a conservative, just look at the polls. I am the only candidate capable of stopping a moderate from winning the nomination.” Indeed, Gingrich claimed, “If you vote for Sen. Santorum, in effect you’re voting for Gov. Romney to be the nominee because he's not going to beat him. And the only way you can stop Gov. Romney for all practical purposes is to vote for Gingrich. That's just a fact and it's a mathematical fact now.”
Well, here's a fact, indeed a mathematical fact: In the first actual vote held this year, Rick Santorum came from behind to double Newt Gingrich's vote in Iowa, and then in New Hampshire, Santorum fought Gingrich to a draw. It's pretty nervy—even by Newtonian standards!—for Gingrich to say that mathematics requires voters to abandon Santorum for Gingrich.
As for the polls: In national polls among Republicans, Santorum ties Gingrich. In South Carolina, Gingrich (from neighboring Georgia) is, it's true, ahead of Santorum—by single digits. But if we’re looking at polls (as Gingrich urges we do), there’s one important set of numbers conservatives need to keep in mind.
Two national polls conducted in the last few days, by CNN and Fox, asked the core question of whether voters had a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidates. Romney is at 43 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable in one poll, and 45 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable in the other, giving him an average of a +4 percent favorability. President Obama is at 49 percent favorable to 49 percent unfavorable and 51 percent to 46 percent, for a +2.5 percent average. Santorum isn't far behind, with numbers that would put him within striking distance in a fall campaign, especially given that he's still less well known: He's at 31 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable, and 31 percent to 36 percent, for an average of -4 percent.
So, there are three candidates at +4 percent, +2.5 percent, and -4 percent, all well within competitive bounds of one another. Newt Gingrich? He's at 28 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable in one poll, 27 percent to 56 percent in the other—averaging -29.5 percent. Yes, -29.5 percent.
Newt Gingrich should never be underestimated. Perhaps he could even recover from a -29.5 percent unfavorability rating. But it’s quite a stretch for Gingrich to claim that he has an obviously better chance to win than Rick Santorum, either against Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.
(emphasis added)
Santorum is great.....but, I don’t think he could stand up to a debate with OBAMA....plus, I think he is more polarizing than NEWT, believe it or not.
You nailed it.
ML/NJ
Bill Kristol = Romneybot
Does “favorability” even matter? And what voters did they sample for these favorability ratings? No surprise that Democrats might consider Newt more polarizing.
Honestly I haven’t read the article but just from the headline... Bill Kristol can go p!$$ up a rope.
Does “favorability” even matter? What is favorability, anyway? And what voters did they sample for these favorability ratings? No surprise that Democrats might consider Newt more polarizing.
Bill Krystal = brown stuff on toilet paper
"Does “favorability” even matter?"
I think by any objective standard, one would have to admit that there's something going on here when compared to the other candidates on this question. I personally don't view Newt "unfavorably" regarding his personal issues, etc. (and I think his strengths outweigh his negatives in this regard)- but many others do.
Bill Kristol
George Will
Georgie Porgie Stepanfetshit
Fat Al Sharpton
Chrisy girl
Sgt. Shultz
David Gregory
Alan Colmes
I had to stop, I'm going crazy trying to figure out who I'd want to use it on.
Whack
Please sir, may I have another?
‘Weekly Standard’ articles espouses the Establishment, DC beltway viewpoint, a la Mitt Romney.
Oh for crying out loud.
My bride of 40 years, on any given day, may give a favorable or unfavorable report on me. LOL
Screw these Fox news rats.
GO NEWT GO......
Bill Kristol and Karl Rove are the ENEMY of conservatives.
Democrats are scared to death of Newt. He says what he means and means what he says. He’s not the type to candy coat things. I do believe, as most do, that Newt has the best interest of the country at heart and knows that we need to turn this country around if we are to survive. This won’t happen under Obama.
I think that if Newt wins the nomination, and people actually watch him campaign, his negatives will drop significantly.
Watching him in the debates, he comes across as bright, tough, quick, courageous, knowledgeable, clear-headed and calm.
In fact, I think he comes across as very presidential.
I don’t think most voters remember him that well from the 1990s, which in any case was a long time ago.
I have been continuously impressed by his performance, and I think that as the nominee he would clean Obama’s clock.
Billy Kristol can go pound sand.
Newt will wipe the floor with the current, “make sh@t up as he goes along” President.
I realize that Kristol has been all over the map... and his claim that anybody who didn’t like Romney or whatever was an “Obama Republican” was beyond grotesque.
But on this particular issue- why not just address his basic point?
By the the time ‘they’ finish with Santorum or Romney once the nomination is sewn up, the GOP standard-bearer will have negative 29.5 also.
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