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InsiderAdvantage Poll (FL): Gingrich Surging, Race 'Tighter Than Expected'
Newsmax ^ | 1-29-2012 | Staff

Posted on 01/29/2012 8:05:02 PM PST by TitansAFC

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for Newt Gingrich.

The poll has Mitt Romney leading with 36 percent of voters, followed by Gingrich at 31 percent.

The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows: Romney 36 percent Gingrich 31 percent Santorum 12 percent Paul 12 percent Other/Undecided 9 percent "The race will be tighter than expected," Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much.".........

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; florida; gingrich; newt; romney; santorum
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To: paintriot

Sanatorium is insane.

He has no chance.

Let’s hope he drops out before we are stuck with $250 million dollar Heir of the Planet Kolob.


51 posted on 01/29/2012 8:26:19 PM PST by garjog (If not Newt, who?)
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To: FreeReign

Rasmussen was the best pollster in recent years, especially his daily polls on Obama.

But somebody must have leaned on him, because frankly I thought the Obama polls began to get less reliable, and I no longer trust him.

These guys all seems to get reached by the pols, sooner or later.


52 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:04 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: TitansAFC

If it is actually this close then Santorum can put Newt over the top. Come on Rick do the right thing. Stop a liberal. GO NEWT GO!


53 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:09 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: paintriot

If Santorum will lend his support to America and Newt we can thwart romney. It may work out without his help, but it would make it a sure thing if he did.
_______________________

You took the words right off my keyboard!

I hate to wish illon Santorum, especially with his little girl Bella so sick, but I wish he’d make a plea to his supporters to vote Newt.


54 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:29 PM PST by leapfrog0202 ("the American presidency is not supposed to be a journey of personal discovery" Sarah Palin)
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To: gswilder

I hope it’s true, but other polls taken entirely after the last debate show Romney only gaining ground.

Here’s hoping this one is catching something, and will be significant for a victory Tuesday.


55 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:29 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: KansasGirl

Sorry to bear bad news, but SurveyUSA just released their latest poll seconds ago. Romney +15, and his largest lead yet in their poll. Their poll shows him winning every area of the state. Also there is no difference between people who voted early and those who didn’t, so their pollsters are not expecting a late Gingrich surge.

This is 3 new polls this weekend showing Romney +15. Doesn’t feel too good for Newt. Just like all the polls showing Newt’s lead growing going into the SC primary, all the latest polls shows Romney doing the same in Florida.

Newt would make a great president. But I have felt this past week, it may be slipping away from him.


56 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:40 PM PST by gswilder
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To: TitansAFC

It still may be a long shot. But I’ll say this. I don’t think any election victory would make me happier than to see Newt win on Tuesday. And I mean any and that includes general elections over dems. I don’t go as far back as some so maybe there are others. But Newt winning on tuesday would be above the 2010 elections, above Bush beating Kerry in 04 or Gore in 00, above the 94 victory.

I think I might even be more excited if he wins on tuesday than I’d be if he were to beat Obama in the fall.

Who knows, there have been wild swings in the past week. I mean Romney went from -10 to +10 in a day or two.

That’s really the most amazing of all this. I never would have thought I’d be rooting this hard for Newt Gingrich of all people.


57 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:42 PM PST by jeltz25
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To: gswilder

I thought there was another poll tonight (PPP?) that showed Newt within 7. But now I can’t find it. I even posted on the thread. Maybe it was pulled for some reason.


58 posted on 01/29/2012 8:28:52 PM PST by Proudcongal (NEWT/PERRY or NEWT/SANTORUM or NEWT/PALIN 2012!)
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To: TitansAFC

God, please bring a supernatural change on the minds of the Florida voters. We need Newt to teach America what it means to be Americans and know repentance from their evil ways.


59 posted on 01/29/2012 8:29:45 PM PST by jonrick46 (Countdown to 11-06-2012)
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To: Texas Fossil
The called SC pretty close.

The RCP average just before the primary only had Gingrich +5, he won by 12.6%.

That's a pretty large miss in my book.

60 posted on 01/29/2012 8:29:45 PM PST by bondserv (Regarding Mitt Romney: I could not warm up to this guy if we were cremated together.)
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To: Texas Fossil

I thought the way Geraldo talked down to Jackie Gingrich was despicable. What did he expect, that Jackie would diss her dad and get on board Geraldo’s love fest with Barry?
After all, he is Whoraldo!


61 posted on 01/29/2012 8:29:45 PM PST by Cincinna ( *** NOBAMA 2012 ***)
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To: TitansAFC

Santorum will not pull out before the FL election. If he comes in a far distant third, its all over for him. He cant continue. I suspect Santorum will endorse the establishment candidate after he pulls out.

Gingrich has to win this, or make it really close.

Paul will continue to suck votes off one or the other.
Paul is a real problem. He has made his point. If he is as really against the establishment like he claims, then he should consider closing ranks, get out, and endorse.


62 posted on 01/29/2012 8:31:28 PM PST by crz
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To: no dems
"I wonder if Newt’s people are talking to Santorum’s people trying to get Rick to take one for the team in FL. Does anyone know if that could possibly be happening?"

First let me say I have been a Newt fan since 1994. Now let me say Santorum has said he is not quiting. He left Florida to go be with his 3 yr. old daughter Bella who was hospitalized. Bella was born with a genetic condition and was not expected to live much longer than a week or so. She is now 3 yrs and it has been touch and go for those yrs. I would hope that Newts people are not bothering him during this time of critical illness of his daughter.

63 posted on 01/29/2012 8:31:36 PM PST by Spunky (Sarah Palin on Polls "Poles are for Strippers and Cross Country Skiers")
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To: TitansAFC
Every candidate I have supported in this race up until now seems to peak early and then fade, ultimately to find himself out of the race. I just hope Newt does well and remains in the campaign. He is on his second comeback, and it would be great to see him take it all the way to victory.

And please add my name to your ping list, thanks.

64 posted on 01/29/2012 8:32:52 PM PST by Victoria Delsoul
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To: Proudcongal

Yes you are right, the latest PPP poll has Romney +8.


65 posted on 01/29/2012 8:33:55 PM PST by gswilder
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To: bondserv; gswilder

The RCP average is frequently wrong since it includes old polls in it’s average. It cannot reflect late swings as old data holds the average down

There have been two different sets of data...two polls showing 15% leads, and two polls showing 5-7 % point leads. It needs to be determined which polls are older. This particualr poll was 1/28 and 1/29, I believe. How ‘bout the others?


66 posted on 01/29/2012 8:34:06 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: no dems

You can make phone calls into Florida from Newt’s national phone banks, tomorrow and Monday. 32 of 40 Tea Party Groups endorsed Gingrich in Florida, and those boots need to be able to go out and do the face-to-face, without shortchanging the phones - that’s where national people can pick up the slack. Especially, people here on FR are very articulate and can probably change some Florida minds and hearts for Newt over the phone!

Nat’l Phone Banks: www.newt.org/activism/pb/

Oh, and for evermore:

www.newt.org/donate

THE CLOCK IS TICKING EVEYRBODY!!


67 posted on 01/29/2012 8:34:52 PM PST by true believer forever (First, they came for the rich.)
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To: gswilder

39-32 +7.


68 posted on 01/29/2012 8:35:24 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: Texas Fossil

I predict FOX ratings to take a tumble pretty soon. Their audience will be leaving in droves after their treatment of conservatives. I rarely turn it on anymore.


69 posted on 01/29/2012 8:35:55 PM PST by dandiegirl
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To: gswilder

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2839843/posts

Actually, all three polls taken that include Saturday and Sunday show Newt closing the gap. The other polls are a couple of days behind.

Also heard on the radio that another poll (newspaper) is coming out tomorrow showing a surge for Newt over the weekend.

It appears to be something showing in all of the polls since Friday. Will it be enough? Who knows?


70 posted on 01/29/2012 8:36:49 PM PST by TitansAFC
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To: Spunky

That being the case, I’m sure they are not bothering the Santorum’s. I was not aware that his daughter was in that serious of a condition. I understood that he went home to work on producing his Income Tax records. Sorry to hear that.


71 posted on 01/29/2012 8:37:03 PM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: TitansAFC
THE CAIN TRAIN IS CLOSING THE GAP!


72 posted on 01/29/2012 8:37:33 PM PST by montag813
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To: gswilder

Could you please post some links for your polls that you cite? I am in Florida it sure doesn’t feel that way. BTW, who do you support for the nomination? It’s helpful to know in assessing one’s info, without links. BTW, I support Newt, loudly proudly and publicly...


73 posted on 01/29/2012 8:39:02 PM PST by true believer forever (First, they came for the rich.)
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To: TitansAFC

What great news!!!! I have been going nuts - I have had it with the establishment - r and d no difference - I want our country back and I believe Newt will be a Great president!!!


74 posted on 01/29/2012 8:39:27 PM PST by BellaBlackLab (BellaBlackLab)
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To: TitansAFC

What great news!!!! I have been going nuts - I have had it with the establishment - r and d no difference - I want our country back and I believe Newt will be a Great president!!!


75 posted on 01/29/2012 8:39:34 PM PST by BellaBlackLab (BellaBlackLab)
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To: ez

PPP’s second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday’s polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.


76 posted on 01/29/2012 8:40:03 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: dandiegirl

I predict FOX ratings to take a tumble pretty soon. Their audience will be leaving in droves after their treatment of conservatives. I rarely turn it on anymore.
__________________________________

You’re right. I will not click on their website - I stopped after what Alan Colmes said about the Santorum’s bringing their dead child home to explain the death to their young children. The fact that Colmes said that made me absolutely sick and that he wasn’t fired was the last straw.


77 posted on 01/29/2012 8:40:03 PM PST by leapfrog0202 ("the American presidency is not supposed to be a journey of personal discovery" Sarah Palin)
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To: ez
I honestly think Romney’s negative carpet bombing has to turn voters off at some point. Hope he has overdone it!!

I went on Romney's facebook page the other night and comments were overwhelmingly blasting him for being so negative. Hardly any supporters. Newt's facebook page, OTOH, was very supportive.

78 posted on 01/29/2012 8:41:53 PM PST by Proudcongal (NEWT/PERRY or NEWT/SANTORUM or NEWT/PALIN 2012!)
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To: TitansAFC

Florida can keep the race going by not voting for Mitt.


79 posted on 01/29/2012 8:42:58 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: TitansAFC
Photobucket
80 posted on 01/29/2012 8:44:31 PM PST by GVnana (Newt 2012 - He Speaks for Us)
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To: Proudcongal

Romney held a 12-point lead among those who had already voted, and an 11-point lead among those who had not yet voted.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys, but this poll of 903 likely voters has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Saturday’s Reuters/Ipsos survey is the second of four daily tracking polls being released ahead of Tuesday’s Florida primary.

COmments by ez...The Reutera poll includes data from Thurs and Fri. The latest PPP, Sat. Sun and this Insider Advantage poll, Sun only. Looks like there is a backlash forming against “Black Thursday.”


81 posted on 01/29/2012 8:44:41 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: hoosiermama
"romney has spent over sixteen million,"

How many millions of Romneys own money did he spend and he couldn't even beat McCain.

The fact is the insiders decided it was McCains turn just like they had decided it was Doles turn. Now it is Romney's turn. I think WE THE PEOPLE have finally caught onto their tactics and ARE NOT going to let it happen again.

I chuckle when some people on this site say Romney will get the nomination because people vote for the handsome one. Well I don't think McCain was handsomer then Romney. And I sure don't think Ronmey is handsomer than Newt.

GO NEWT!

82 posted on 01/29/2012 8:45:47 PM PST by Spunky (Sarah Palin on Polls "Poles are for Strippers and Cross Country Skiers")
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To: no dems

"If Santorum will lend his support to America and Newt we can thwart romney. It may work out without his help, but it would make it a sure thing if he did.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
What can we do to help make this happen?"

Santorum won Iowa.  Even though Romney's punk @ss got the propoganda boost from it with the erroneous nationwide declaration that he won Iowa, Santorum won Iowa.  Unfortunately, Santorum has GOT to be believing that he's still got a decent chance because of his win in Iowa.

 

83 posted on 01/29/2012 8:46:15 PM PST by CaptainKrunch
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To: leapfrog0202; dandiegirl

The one exception is Greta who has been being balanced. I look forward to watching her each night.

Her bus tour with Newt was the Newtron Bomb.


84 posted on 01/29/2012 8:48:37 PM PST by bondserv (Regarding Mitt Romney: I could not warm up to this guy if we were cremated together.)
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To: CaptainKrunch
Unfortunately, Santorum has GOT to be believing that he's still got a decent chance because of his win in Iowa.

Delusional. He campaigned in IA for a year.

85 posted on 01/29/2012 8:48:51 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: bondserv
The RCP average just before the primary only had Gingrich +5, he won by 12.6%. That's a pretty large miss in my book.

I would add that RCP had Mitt up by +8 and +10.3 three and four days before SC. And as you pointed out Newt won by +12.6.

So to conclude about RCP predictive capabilities, they were 23 points off four days before SC.

86 posted on 01/29/2012 8:48:54 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: ez

Here is your answer on polls.

SurveyUSA - Romney +15 (data through 1/29 ;today)
Rasmussen = Romney +16 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
PPP - Romney +8 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
NBC/Marist - Romney +15 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
Mason Dixon = Romney +11 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
(several others through 1/26, showing Romney +11 or so)

I am not sure what surge IA is seeing. Their poll posted on 1/26 (with data through 1/25), showed it Romney +8, about the same as what the OP showed. Big difference between the IA poll and Survey USA which both did surveys today.

I usually try to look at the trends and also what the candidates are saying and doing. The fact the Newt said he was staying in this to the end, regardless of what happens in Florida is kind of telling to me.

But hey, this has been a volatile race, with wild swings in short amounts of times. I wouldn’t bet on anything at this point. Personally, I don’t think Romney will win by double digits as most of the recent polls are showing. But unfortunately, I do believe Romney will win in the 5-7 point range.


87 posted on 01/29/2012 8:49:42 PM PST by gswilder
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To: ez

How many are undecided?


88 posted on 01/29/2012 8:49:53 PM PST by jennychase
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To: bondserv
Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

Gentlemen, there is more work to be done here.

89 posted on 01/29/2012 8:51:04 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: Spunky

Newt’s a dog.

But he’s our dog!

Go Newt!


90 posted on 01/29/2012 8:52:12 PM PST by stanne
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To: Qwackertoo
Come on FL . . . Vote NEWT!!!!

I just sent another email to everyone my address book (those living in FL and elsewhere). I have asked them contact anyone they know in FL and encourage them to vote for Newt.

Equally important, I have implored them to also ask anyone they contact in FL to please contact everyone they know and encourage them to vote for Newt.

We need to do all we can to stop Mitt.

91 posted on 01/29/2012 8:52:15 PM PST by sand88 (Hey Rove et al, I will, with great pleasure, NOT cast a vote for the Statist Mitt.)
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To: ez

How many women really go out and vote?


92 posted on 01/29/2012 8:52:27 PM PST by jennychase
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To: FReepers; All
Click


100,000 phone calls needed. And twitter, facebook... Please go to Newt.org for more info on how to help.
GO NEWT!
GO FREE REPUBLIC!!!
Most important election in our lifetime… Can you imagine if he (Obama) is re-elected how radical he will be?

93 posted on 01/29/2012 8:53:06 PM PST by RedMDer (Forward With Confidence!)
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To: ConfidentConservative

BINGO


94 posted on 01/29/2012 8:53:23 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: ez
Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

Gentlemen, there is more work to be done here.

Maybe if we persuade George Clooney and Brad Pitt to switch to Republican and endorse Newt. :-)

95 posted on 01/29/2012 8:53:43 PM PST by bondserv (Regarding Mitt Romney: I could not warm up to this guy if we were cremated together.)
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To: Parley Baer

Somebody explain how Santorum can drop out after early voting has begun


96 posted on 01/29/2012 8:55:01 PM PST by stanne
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To: gswilder

Turn out will be the key. Sometimes when one is predicted to win by large margin some of the voters stay home. Since this is mostly just negatives about newt and not why one should vote for Romney there is a good chance many will just sit at home without someone to vote FOR. Especially if they think newt can’t win—so what’s the harm in staying at home?

But if Newt can get the tea party on their feet he could steal this.


97 posted on 01/29/2012 8:55:11 PM PST by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: ez
women are still favoring Romney.

Of course they are. Women are just as likely to think with their ovaries as men are with their.. uh 'heads'. Makes total sense. To be fair however, Newt's alleged infidelity may also be a contributing factor.

98 posted on 01/29/2012 8:55:11 PM PST by libh8er
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To: libh8er
Rush can definitely help tomorrow — if he chooses to.

I have listened to Rush forever and love him. But it will be a cold day in Hell before he puts his neck on the line and endorse Newt. It will not happen.

I turned Rush off a few times last week. I expect him to be a severe disappointment on Monday.

99 posted on 01/29/2012 8:56:56 PM PST by sand88 (Hey Rove et al, I will, with great pleasure, NOT cast a vote for the Statist Mitt.)
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To: true believer forever

I posted the info to your question below on polls. You can go to real clear politics and get a listing of every public poll that has been released.

As far as me? I was hoping for Sarah, but when she bowed out, I supported Perry. Unfortunately, I am in a late voting primary state, so it may be decided before I get my chance. But in the end, I will vote for the republican nominee over Obama, regardless.


100 posted on 01/29/2012 8:57:12 PM PST by gswilder
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