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What's the truth about the unemployment numbers?
Fox News ^ | March 4, 2012 | John Lott & Grover Norquist

Posted on 03/04/2012 9:25:54 PM PST by Bobbys1963

The recent sudden drops in both initial unemployment insurance claims and unemployment rates have generated a slew of positive news stories and lifted White House spirits. Fox News contributor and former Clinton pollster Doug Schoen even writes about the “high-fiving in the White House.”

But other numbers show a much weaker job market and economy; the average unemployment duration remains near its all-time high, hiring is stuck near record lows, and there are almost 3 million workers in part-time rather than full-time jobs. Further, GDP grew just 1.7% last year and few new companies are being started.

So which scenario is right?

First, let us set one thing straight. The apparent contradiction between a falling unemployment rate and other indicators isn’t because the Obama administration “manipulates numbers to get [the] unemployment headline under 9%” as Rush Limbaugh claims. The current "recovery" is so unusual that the normal rules for relating the unemployment rate to other labor market indicators don’t hold; indeed those rules can be quite misleading.

Take initial unemployment insurance claims. . . .

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: economy; jobs; johnlott; obama; unemployment

1 posted on 03/04/2012 9:26:00 PM PST by Bobbys1963
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To: Bobbys1963

Hello Newbie! Welcome to FreeRepublic!

“The recent sudden drops in both initial unemployment insurance claims and unemployment rates have generated a slew of positive news stories and lifted White House spirits. Fox News contributor and former Clinton pollster Doug Schoen even writes about the “high-fiving in the White House.”


2 posted on 03/04/2012 9:41:09 PM PST by Carthego delenda est
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To: Bobbys1963

Look at the Leading Economic Index.Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes.They are able to predict the economy six to nine months.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/glossary/g/Leading_Indicat.htm


3 posted on 03/04/2012 9:41:09 PM PST by U-238
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To: Bobbys1963

4 posted on 03/04/2012 9:42:34 PM PST by null and void (Day 1138 of America's ObamaVacation from reality [Heroes aren't made, Frank, they're cornered...])
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To: null and void

Good graphic


5 posted on 03/04/2012 9:43:56 PM PST by U-238
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To: U-238

Welcome to FreeRepublic newbie

“Look at the Leading Economic Index.Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes.They are able to predict the economy six to nine months.”

Huh?


6 posted on 03/04/2012 9:44:12 PM PST by Carthego delenda est
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To: Bobbys1963

I could hit you in the head but then mulder would have me killed.


7 posted on 03/04/2012 9:45:02 PM PST by allmost
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To: Bobbys1963

bho3card


8 posted on 03/04/2012 9:45:48 PM PST by FrankR (You are only enslaved to the extent of the entitlements you receive.)
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To: Carthego delenda est

Here is a beginners guide to Economic Indicators

http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/economic_ind.htm


9 posted on 03/04/2012 9:45:58 PM PST by U-238
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To: Bobbys1963; SeekAndFind
isn’t because the Obama administration “manipulates numbers to get [the] unemployment headline under 9%” as Rush Limbaugh claims.

So, like the Global Warming scam, B(l)S doesn't cook the books; but "adjusts" the numbers by a secret amount; using a secret formula; and in such a way that 'recovery' is favored (and at the other end, drops are 'smoothed' & hidden), using cherry picked picked data + "secret sauce".

Got it: Rush is wrong, even though he's really right.

10 posted on 03/04/2012 9:45:58 PM PST by ApplegateRanch (If any of their "Alternatives" actually works, the Greenies will proceed to kill it.)
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To: Carthego delenda est

“Saint Michael the Archangel, defend us in battle; Be our protection against the wickedness and snares of the devil.
May God rebuke him, we humbly pray: and do thou, O Prince of the heavenly host,
by the power of God, thrust into hell Satan and all the evil spirits who prowl
about the world seeking the ruin of souls. Amen”

okay


11 posted on 03/04/2012 9:47:53 PM PST by Carthego delenda est
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To: Carthego delenda est

http://bizfinance.about.com/od/currentevents/a/Economic_Indicators.htm


12 posted on 03/04/2012 9:50:41 PM PST by U-238
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To: Carthego delenda est

As I remember my history correctly, the patron saint of the Knights Templar was Saint Michael.If I am also correct, during the end times St Michael will be leading God’s warriors into battle and defeat Satan.Saint Michael is an archangel and his name means “He who is like God.”


13 posted on 03/04/2012 9:57:15 PM PST by U-238
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To: Carthego delenda est

Pope John Paul II who encouraged the Catholic faithful to continue to pray to Saint Michael, saying: “I ask everyone not to forget it and to recite it to obtain help in the battle against forces of darkness


14 posted on 03/04/2012 9:59:34 PM PST by U-238
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To: U-238

Truth, honesty, all those deadly important skills..


15 posted on 03/04/2012 10:08:18 PM PST by allmost
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To: Bobbys1963

Hmmmm. Or could it be that they Baraqs just removed 1.2 million voters, I mean workers?


16 posted on 03/04/2012 10:21:23 PM PST by cardinal4 (Bolton/Arpaio 2012 "Kick the UN across the border!")
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To: U-238
Pope John Paul II who encouraged the Catholic faithful to continue to pray to Saint Michael, saying: “I ask everyone not to forget it and to recite it to obtain help in the battle against forces of darkness


Christ is the only way to God, no man, nor no angel will ever be able to intercede for you. It is heresy to even suggest such a thing. The Catholics are WRONG to suggest that anyone other than Jesus Christ can intercede for you in anything getting help from the darkness of evil!

Satan laughs in pure delight when he sees Christians asking dead men or angels to help in battling him and his demonic legions.
17 posted on 03/04/2012 10:47:32 PM PST by OneVike ((Just a Christian waiting to go home) internet ID:: impeachobamanow)
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To: OneVike

I know you are correct. I also believe with you.


18 posted on 03/04/2012 11:48:55 PM PST by hspirit (Just think about it.)
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To: Bobbys1963
I saw a youtube video with some economist being interviewed. He was asked about the strength of the economy because of all the excitement surrounding the Facebook IPO.

His response was that if the best IPO the American economy can produce is essentially an "internet time waster" then we're in trouble.

19 posted on 03/05/2012 1:27:09 AM PST by IDontLikeToPayTaxes
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To: ApplegateRanch

The methods have been in place for a long while. The discouraged worker was added in the early 90’s and accounts for most of the disparity between the reported unemployment rate and the actual rate.
The actual rated is published btw but its not the most reported and much lower headline rate.
Whether the data inputted is accurate is another question but the formulas have been around.


20 posted on 03/05/2012 2:55:02 AM PST by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: Bobbys1963
First, let us set one thing straight. The apparent contradiction between a falling unemployment rate and other indicators isn’t because the Obama administration “manipulates numbers to get [the] unemployment headline under 9%” as Rush Limbaugh claims.

I do not know why Limbaugh says that.

I do know that the BLS household survey (Current Population Survey) is used to develop the unemployment rate.

The article goes on to say

The very weak recovery means the official unemployment rate is an unreliable barometer of the labor market. People are only counted as unemployed if they have been actively looking for work in the past four weeks. It is good news when the number of unemployed falls due to more hires. It is not so good if the number falls due to people giving up looking for work.

That's true because actual hires come from the establishment survey of 400,000 businesses.

I say that there are no questions on the household survey that ask "Are you a marginally attached worker?" Instead the computer determines that by the answers to the survey of 60,000 households -- and I believe that.. how the computer interprets can be adjusted. THUS I believe that the numbers can be and in fact are manipulated by all administrations since this "feature" was added, I think in the first Clinton term.

BTW, some argue that the establishment survey does not catch some workers such as "start up" businesses but the household does catch those workers. OK -- that was a huge debate during the Bush recovery -- but I believe that the household counts someone as working even though there is no income such as someone claiming to be a contractor but who does not have a contract or someone working in a family-owned business but not being paid.

21 posted on 03/05/2012 4:23:09 AM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: Bobbys1963
While 1.66 million net jobs have been added during the Obama "recovery,” over that same time the number of working age Americans not in the labor force rose by 7.14 million. There is no comparable post-World War II "recovery" where this type of exodus has occurred. . . Some have attempted to explain this anomaly by an aging workforce, but labor force participation rates have fallen for all age groups except workers age 65 and over.

That's more shenanigans.. possibly. The Current Population Survey determined somehow that there were far more people in the over-55 category than heretofore thought. So an adjustment was made for the beginning of 2012. Some one-million-plus were moved to the over-55 category and since the over-55 category has a larger "not in the labor force" rate many of those one-million-plus were dropped from the "looking for work" category thus lowering the unemployment rate.

BTW, that 2012 adjustment was the largest ever.. the second largest was in election year 2000 also a time when the incumbent administration was Democrat and the economy was in sharp decline.

22 posted on 03/05/2012 4:37:07 AM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: WilliamofCarmichael

During the Clinton administration, the survey excluded inner cities populations, thereby lowering the unemployment counts. At the end of his term, Clinton then had inner city populations thrown back in, which made Bush look bad.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Obama were doing the same thing.


23 posted on 03/05/2012 6:49:26 AM PST by aimhigh
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To: hspirit

God bless you,

OV


24 posted on 03/05/2012 9:33:35 AM PST by OneVike ((Just a Christian waiting to go home) internet ID:: impeachobamanow)
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