Posted on 03/06/2012 8:32:14 PM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
Pretty much all the results in, and Schmidt is behind Brad Wenstrup 43%-49%.
Anyone see this coming?
Well, the difference between Miami and Cincinnati is that because of the VRA requirements for the former, you have all those crazy lines criss-crossing everywhere. Unlike Miami, Cincy has had deteriorating to stagnant growth over the past several decades, hence my comment that for a city (not under the VRA requirements) of less than 300k having two city-based members is unusual. I’m rather surprised the urban-based Wenstrup was able to win when you consider Schmidt hailed from the suburban section of the district (I’ve not seen the new lines, so I don’t know how much of urban Cincy is in the redrawn 2nd). Of course, when Cincy was a much larger city of over 500k, it used to have 2 members entirely within the city boundaries.
I think that OH-02 now has more of Cinci than it used to (so as to shore up the OH-01 a bit), but Schmidt usually ran well in the Hamilton County portion of the CD (her home is just across the Cleburne County line). Schmidt was usually weakest in the rural counties closer to Portsmouth than Cinci, and Wenstrup probably did well there despite being from Cinci. In the end, though, Wenstrum won on the issues (cutting government, etc.), not due to geography.
Well, my intuition was off by 180 degrees. Wenstrup won huge in Cinci and carried Clermont, but Schmidt actually won all of those rural counties that normally gave her trouble. I guess that Wenstrup didn’t advertise outside of the Cinci market. http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=130:15:0:
Actually, the Huckabee role is being filled by Santorum this year.
Well based on his platform Wenstrup looks solid.
I’m pleased, it looks like they replaced a lady on constant upset alert with a guy who might be statewide material.
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