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Nat Gas vs. Electric Vehicles: Which Will Drive U.S. Passenger Car Market?
Rig Zone ^ | April 09, 2012 | Karen Boman|

Posted on 04/09/2012 7:42:32 AM PDT by thackney

T. Boone Pickens and other energy industry executives have been promoting the increased use of natural gas in the U.S. as a means of developing a market for the abundant U.S. shale gas supply now available, as well as bolstering the U.S. economy and weaning the nation of its dependence on foreign oil.

While initial efforts have been focused on the heavy-duty vehicle market, increasing the number of light-duty passenger cars that run on compressed natural gas (CNG) is viewed as the next step towards achieving these goals.

In early March, Chesapeake Energy and GE unveiled plans to jointly develop infrastructure to promote the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel, including CNG and liquefied natural gas transportation and gas home-fueling solutions.

An estimated 112,000 natural gas vehicles are on U.S. roads today and over 13 million are being driven worldwide, according to the Natural Gas Vehicles for America (NGVA) trade association website. However, an estimated half a million light-duty, CNG powered passenger vehicles could be on U.S. roads by 2020, said NGVA President Richard Kolodziej.

Kolodziej commented that he is not surprised that the more aggressive natural gas producers are promoting use of natural gas in power generation and transportation.

"The petrochemical industry wants gas to stay below $2/Mcf forever, not realizing the correlation between higher prices and more supply," said Kolodziej, adding that little profit can be made in the residential and commercial market, and the industrial market is tied to the economy.

Gas-Powered Vehicles With gasoline prices approaching $4/gallon and the U.S. government's ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles driving on U.S. roads, the question of whether the use of alternative fuel vehicles will grow seems a logical one. Whether CNG vehicles will capture a significant market share of the U.S. passenger vehicle market, and how these vehicles will compete against electric vehicles (EVs), remains to be seen.

Natural gas could come from behind and overtake market share from EVs if original equipment manufacturers and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promote CNG vehicles and if the public can have more access to natural gas filling stations, said Larry Rinek, senior technology consultant with Frost & Sullivan's technical insights division.

Advocates of CNG vehicles point to the lower exhaust emissions from CNG versus gasoline-powered cars. However, CNG vehicles are not a panacea that will save everybody from dependence on foreign fuels, said Rinek.

Drawbacks to CNG vehicles include the availability of fueling stations. The natural gas filling stations that are available in the U.S. tend to be concentrated in areas where commercial fleets of CNG vehicles exist; buses and trucks are the biggest market for CNG today.

Additionally, CNG cars also have less power than gasoline-fueled cars, said Rinek, who road tested a 2012 Honda Civic CNG vehicle earlier this year and was underwhelmed by its performance. After-market enhancements to boost power on CNG cars are costly, and a fact with which most drivers will have to learn to live.

"These are not performance vehicles," commented Rinek. "These cars are for Joe and Jane Consumer who are going to the market and not going very fast."

CNG tanks eat up most of the trunk space in cars, creating a nuisance for drivers, Rinek noted.

Availability of cars is another issue. At present, the Honda Civic natural gas vehicle is the only light-duty natural gas vehicle available from an original U.S. equipment manufacturer. The available of CNG cars does appear to be changing.

In early March, Chrysler said it would begin selling a Ram 2500 Heavy Duty pickup that runs on CNG, the Associated Press reported. General Motors will also begin selling versions of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra 25500 HD that run on natural gas.

Last fall, Honda announced it would rapidly ramp up output of the 2012 Honda Civic Natural Gas car to meet anticipated demand for the vehicle.

Natural gas cars cost more than gasoline or diesel powered cars, according to NGVA, but a number of federal and state tax credits are available for the purchase of a CNG vehicle.

Kolodziej believes that consumer interest in purchasing a CNG vehicle or converting an existing vehicle for CNG use will grow as the availability of natural gas fueling stations do. The cost of these cars mean that people who purchase them will most-likely already own a vehicle or two, he added.

"The focus of developing a market for natural gas powered cars has not been to intentionally ignore the consumer market, but to focus initially on return to home vehicles, such as buses or trucks that move across the country," Kolodziej commented, saying that he believes that electric cars will be a niche application and that hydrogen-fueled vehicles are "great in theory" but face the challenge of high manufacturing costs.

Electric-Powered Vehicles Cars with electric-powered motors have been around for over a century, but the internal combustion engine and mass production of gasoline-fueled vehicles put electric-powered cars on the backburner. Currently, EVs are the darlings of environmental activities--with federal and state tax incentives, a number of electric cars available for purchase and the number of charging stations growing through public and private investment, Rinek commented.

However, the limited driving range of electric powered cars – with drivers lucky to get 100 miles between stops at charging stations -- has been a deterrent to their widespread adoption in the U.S. market. As a result, EVs ended up being relegated to a second or third urban vehicle used for short trips, Rinek commented.

The limited range of electric vehicles and the lengthy time required to recharge an electric car's batteries are two big Achilles heels for EV vehicles, said Michael Gorton, an engineer, physicist, lawyer and power systems engineer who writes and speaks on topics related to energy, alternative vehicles and solar power finance.

"If you're driving from Houston to Dallas and have to stop for eight hours to recharge you're car, it's not so fun [to drive an electric vehicle]." Using solar cells to recharge an EV also is not the way to go right now, with further advances in solar technology needed before solar cells become a more feasible option for EVs.

To avoid high costs, EV drivers must be conscious of where they can charge their cars and what time of day they can do so. Otherwise, they may find themselves stranded without an electric outlet and end up being "charged through the nose" by utilities to recharge their vehicles.

"Utilities have mixed feelings about EVs," said Rinek. "They are promoting the use of and operate large EV fleets, but they would prefer drivers of EVs only charge at night when surplus capacity is available," as the charging draws significant power grid.

The cost of EV vehicles compared to gasoline-fueled vehicles is a drawback to purchasing an EV, mostly due to the lithium ion battery packs within the cars. To compensate for the weight of the battery, the EVs currently being manufactured are mostly smaller cars.

"If the cost, weight and issue of charging time can be addressed, the cost of EVs will be brought down dramatically," said Gorton.

There's a good chance of a breakthrough in battery technology that will allow for a wide use of EVs, but Gorton said he doesn't see significant breakthroughs in CNG motors on the horizon.

First U.S. Coast to Coast EV Fueling Station Planned Bruce Brimacombe, founder and CEO of Arizona-based GoE3, an economic change engine involved in deploying the first coast-to-coast EV infrastructure project in the U.S., noted that CNG can play a role in the EV market as a fueling source for recharging EV batteries outside the main power grid.

GoE3 on April 21 will launch the new infrastructure project at Biosphere 2 in Tucscon, Ariz. These charging stations will be Level Two, 70 Amp or higher to support all modern EVs and make interstate travel for EVs and plug-in EVs.

Over the next three years, charging stations will be installed along the major interstate highways 1-40, 1-10, 1-20 and 1-70, with stations located every 50 to 75 miles. This infrastructure system, which will be constructed through private funding, will allow drivers to travel in EVs from New York to Los Angeles.

The stations will feature fast chargers that can recharge an EV battery anywhere between 15 and 45 minutes. "We're trying to support all the [EV] cars to the best of their ability," said Brimacombe. "We're not trying to take a side in the fight."

The system is being constructed in anticipation of the number of EVs that manufacturers will be bringing on the U.S. market, Brimacombe noted, citing a 2010 study by Baum and Associates that an estimated 32 models of EVs are expected to be available by 2015, with over 2 million EVs expected to be on U.S. roads in that year.

Both CNG and electric powered vehicles will be equally compatible in the U.S. auto market in the next 20 to 30 years, said Keith Woods, director of the board for the Salt River Project, which services 960,000 utility customers in Phoenix, Ariz.

"Much like the utility industry, it's best to have a diverse portfolio of fuels to have some price certainty and security, like having a mutual fund instead of buying a stock," Woods commented.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: efv; energy; naturalgas
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1 posted on 04/09/2012 7:42:37 AM PDT by thackney
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To: thackney

CNBC has Santelli doing pieces all day today on NG conversion for vehicles that can be fueled in your own garage. Sadly they will go nowhere until the politicians figure out how to tax them.


2 posted on 04/09/2012 7:45:50 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: thackney
Additionally, CNG cars also have less power than gasoline-fueled cars,

That makes no sense. You might be able to say that they have less power for a given cylinder size. You might say that a "gallon" of compressed natural gas has less energy than a gallon of gasoline. But you can run locomotives on natural gas, so power isn't a problem.

3 posted on 04/09/2012 7:51:22 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (You only have three billion heartbeats in a lifetime.How many does the government claim as its own?)
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To: Roccus
Sadly they will go nowhere until the politicians figure out how to tax them.

It isn't rocket science. Refueling stations for natural gas are few and far between. Tax them at the source as we do with traditional gasoline now. Home garage based refueling stations can easily be regulated just as natural gas lines are now-- by requiring a meter.

I believe the bigger issue which is far harder to overcome is politicians and powerful environmental extremist groups who do not want America to be energy independent because they are financed by OPEC interests.

4 posted on 04/09/2012 7:52:10 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: thackney

Sounds like some rather spectacular vehicle crashes are just around the corner.


5 posted on 04/09/2012 7:52:30 AM PDT by WinMod70
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To: Roccus
I long for the days when innovation and ambition gave people opportunity and made America great.
6 posted on 04/09/2012 7:52:36 AM PDT by Baynative (Please check this out - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFIcZkEzc8I)
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To: Roccus

I saw Santelli this morning—he did a great job. The company is CNG Interstate in Edmund, OK.

Joe Kernan on Squak Box showed he is a knuckle dragger, saying that we need to get rid of all hydrocarbon infrastructure. He sounded like an Obamanoid.

Kernan says solar and wind and other “renewables” (there is no such thing as “renewable energy”; once energy is used, it is gone)

Santelli was incredulous.

CNG for fleets of trucks, buses, even cars has much more promise than coal powered Volts, etc. Economies of scale would bring it down. And gas stations, which already have a highly flammable and volatile fuel can have tanks of CNG in the ground for refueling.

We have enough natural gas for another 120 years. We thought we were going to exhaust the supply by 1980.

And we haven’t even found it all yet.


7 posted on 04/09/2012 7:53:06 AM PDT by exit82 (Democrats are the enemies of freedom. Be Andrew Breitbart.)
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To: thackney

NG powered vehicles are a proven technology that has been around for decades and even refueling could be easily accomplished with existing infrastructure. The big advantage is NG powered vehicles don’t have the very limited range that will always plague electric vehicles.


8 posted on 04/09/2012 7:53:16 AM PDT by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that pretty soon you run out of other people's money" M. Thatcher)
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To: thackney
I am not sure the following article is relevant, but it has some interesting insight into CNG: Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence
9 posted on 04/09/2012 7:54:26 AM PDT by epithermal
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To: thackney

Electric is oil since that is where the electricity comes from that you plug into your home to get.
Natural gas is an interesting option, but of course what happens if a car rolls over in an accident is the big worry.


10 posted on 04/09/2012 7:54:30 AM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: WinMod70

Propane has been used in vehicles for many years. Mostly for large fleets of commercial vehicles used within a relatively small local area.


11 posted on 04/09/2012 7:55:15 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: KarlInOhio

My thoughts as well.

It would apply more to converting a gasoline car into a CNG. It is not going to run the same on methane as gasoline.


12 posted on 04/09/2012 7:57:33 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: KarlInOhio

Just heard a podcast on this very thing -

NG, even compressed, is “fluffier” than vaporized gasoline.
It has about 80% of the energy per volume entering the combustion chamber.

But, folks, at 75 cents per gasoline gallon equivalent, gimme a break! I’ll take the “gotta push my foot down 20% more” problem.

On topic, though - since NG will work, and electric cars will not, look for the left to support electrics over NG.


13 posted on 04/09/2012 7:58:42 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: exit82

I think Kernan was being sarcastic. He was saying that it’s the GOV’T that wants to get away from carbon and that everything it is doing is going that way.....BICBW


14 posted on 04/09/2012 8:00:02 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: WinMod70

“Sounds like some rather spectacular vehicle crashes are just around the corner.” -WM7

The safety of CNG and Gasoline powered engines / fuel systems is about the same. Are you really concerned about this, or are you just imagining a problem with CNG?

If you are concerned, do you have *any* data to support that concern?


15 posted on 04/09/2012 8:00:26 AM PDT by Triple (Socialism denies people the right to the fruits of their labor, and is as abhorrent as slavery)
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To: thackney

More from Santelli

http://www.businessinsider.com/video-rick-santelli-natural-gas-2012-4


16 posted on 04/09/2012 8:01:40 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: A CA Guy
Electric is oil since that is where the electricity comes from that you plug into your home to get.

No, very, very little electricity is produced from oil. Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclear are the primary sources.


17 posted on 04/09/2012 8:02:20 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: driftdiver

Converted my gasoline generator to run on prop/NG/gas....bolt on....under $200

http://www.propane-generators.com/


18 posted on 04/09/2012 8:04:34 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: thackney
Natural gas cars cost more than gasoline or diesel powered cars, according to NGVA, but a number of federal and state tax credits are available for the purchase of a CNG vehicle.

What a shame, I mean sham.

19 posted on 04/09/2012 8:04:34 AM PDT by upchuck (Need is not an acceptable lifestyle choice; dependent is not a career. ~ Dr. Tim Nerenz)
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To: thackney
Check this out. I live in the People's Republik of Bethesda Merryland and this popped
up in the parking lot of my bank. This recharging station is FREE! Who built it I don't
know but I'm sure my tax dollars did.

20 posted on 04/09/2012 8:05:45 AM PDT by Clint N. Suhks
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