Skip to comments.Gallup: Catholic vote a tossup, 46/46
Posted on 05/03/2012 7:01:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Catholic vote by nine points, 54/45, over John McCain on his way to a seven-point victory in the national popular vote. Three months after announcing the HHS mandate that would force religious hospitals, schools, and charities to fund contraception, sterilization, and abortifacients, Obama has lost that edge among the tens of millions of Catholic voters. A new Gallup poll shows Obama in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, at just about the same level as McCain got in 2008:
Catholic voters in the United States are evenly split in their support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for president, mirroring the national trend. However, Hispanic Catholics --- about 18% of the total group of Catholic voters --- are overwhelmingly likely to support Obama over Romney, while a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics support Romney.
Obama led Romney by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, among the more than 8,000 registered voters interviewed as part of Gallup Daily tracking conducted April 11-30. Among the 1,915 Catholics interviewed during that time, support for Obama and Romney was almost the same, with 46% support for Obama and 46% for Romney.
Catholics’ divided preferences at this point contrast with those of the largest religious group in the country, Protestants, whose support swings to Romney by 51% to 41%. The split in Catholics’ preferences also differs from the choice among those who identify with another religion or no religion at all, a group that clearly supports Obama, by 58% to 33%.
The Protestant vote is going to be a problem for Obama, too. He lost Protestants to McCain by the same numbers, 45/54. However, the difference in both numbers is that Obama is a known quantity this time, unlike in 2008. Those who remain undecided now are much less likely to break towards the incumbent. Romney already has a ten-point lead among Protestants, and could easily stretch it out to the mid-teens by Election Day. Protestants made up 54% of the electorate in 2008, and it’s probably a safe bet that they’ll turn out even stronger in 2012.
Obama won despite the disadvantage mainly because of his strength among Catholics. Gallup tries to soften the blow by noting that Obama does very well among Hispanic Catholics, 70/20, but they are only about 18% of the bloc. Obama is deeply unpopular among non-Hispanic Catholics, 38/55. Whatever else happens, the Catholic vote won’t come to Obama’s rescue in 2012 as it did in 2008.
The US Conference of Catholic Bishops have not relented one iota on the issue of the HHS mandate, which means these numbers won’t be improving any time soon. That may even start having an impact on Obama’s lead among Hispanic Catholics. Obama will have to defend this intrusion on religious expression, thanks to the USCCB’s energetic attacks, but the administration will have to do better than this:
In sworn testimony before the House Education and Workforce Committee, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said that her general counsel did not write a legal memo explaining the religious freedom issues in the birth control mandate. During the same line of questioning, Sebelius also admitted to being unfamiliar with several important Supreme Court religious freedom cases.
Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) said that he knew of only three tests that the Supreme Court has used to balance a constitutionally protected freedom against a policy goal. He described those three tests and then asked Sebelius last Thursday, “Which of those three constitutional balancing tests were you making reference to when you said you ‘balanced’ things?”
“Congressman, I’m not a lawyer and I don’t pretend to understand the nuances of the constitutional balancing tests,” Sebelius answered.
“Before this rule was promulgated, did you read any of the Supreme Court cases on religious liberty?” Gowdy later asked.
Sebelius answered that she did not.
Chris Cillizza and Rachel Weiner underscore the importance of this bloc:
As Gallups Frank Newport notes in a memo on the findings, Catholics have historically been a Democratic-leaning constituency the party can thank John F. Kennedy for that one but in recent decades have become more of a toss-up voting bloc.
The eight presidential elections reveal how up for grabs Catholics truly. The Republican nominee has carried Catholics four times, the Democratic nominee has carried Catholics four times. …
Keep an eye on the Catholic vote between now and November. How it goes will tell you a lot about who is going to be the next president.
And as long as the bishops maintain the fight against the Obama administration — and they defend the mandate so badly — it won’t be Obama who wins this bloc.
Way too early to compare the 2008 campaign to the 2012 campaign.....
but you will find lots of ‘so called Catholics’, who cover their eyes and ears when it comes to church doctrine, but listen to their UNIONS religiously.
Palpable evidence that the Church heirarchy is not emphasizing Church dogma and core beliefs with enough tenacity and rigor, accompanied by clear illustrations of the very real consequences for non-adherence.
Pray for our Bishops.
We need some "No Fetus Can Beat US" bumper stickers to slap on next to any Obama stickers found in the parking lots at mass.
This country is finished. If after everything we have gone through does not make 75 percent want this thug gone from office, what can you say?
RE: Wow - there must be as many stupid Catholics as there are stupid Jews.
There is a difference between being BAPTIZED a Catholic at birth and REALLY BEING a believing and faithful Catholic as an adult.
There are just too many of the former in this country.
This is like the poll of “Evangelicals” showing a doubling of support for Barry since 2008.
You can call yourself a “car” if you want, but no matter how much you make “vroom vroom” sounds, you’re not a car.
AMEN to that! 30+ years ago this buffoon would have been lucky to have 20% support.Hell McGovern was Ronald Reagan compared to this Marxist a-hole.
I have been “Prepping” for the past 6 months. Every time I start to doubt myself, I am hit between the eyes with something like this. I was convinced America was filled with uneducated people. People who would maybe finally “Get It”. No more...Most Americans are just plain dumb as a box of rocks. I will take care of my own and the rest of these Jack@$$es can suck eggs. If they can find any.
The unfortunate thing is that the Catholic Church was a leading force in the union movement. Little did they know that it would develope into a communist movement.
That is a reasonable result, given the essential sameness of these two death culture persons.
I listened to him during the summer of 07, he scared the heck outta me then and scares me even more now. That’s why I will hold my nose and vote Romney.
Don't get me wrong, I'm no angel by any stretch. There are many times I've dragged myself to the alter needing pardon and spiritual refreshment. I like to think though that I see my sin and struggle against it, not embrace it.
Just as homosexuals have permeated the church and wounded so many young people with their perversion. It seems the church finds pardon for the abuser but not the young adult that launched off into a life of immorality as a direct result of the acts perpetrated upon them as a child...ie, adultery, divorce, alcoholism/drug dependence and other such destructive behaviors.
Any thoughts y'all?
This is actually a good number. As the article states, Obama won this group overwhelmingly 4 years ago, and it is split right now. This is before the campaign even begins, so the undecideds are likely to go to the challenger. If Romney splits or wins the Catholic vote, he wins, IMO.
It is interesting that the even split is primarily due to the unbalance of support from Hispanic Catholics who favor Obama. I suspect it is because they are not yet engaged in the Presidential campaign.
I hope that the 2 weeks of protests, fasting, and prayer against the HHS mandate (late June until July 4th) plus this administration’s policies which interfere with religious expression, will wake up more of the Catholics, especially the Hispanics. The article did allude to this possibility.
This is an “encouraging word”. Hope these numbers hold up because 75% of the undecideds go for the challenger on Election Day.
The Pew survey says Obama is trailing 57/37 so whom do you believe? As an active Catholic I believe there is no question Obama is way behind with Catholics and will actually lose with a record low number. Does anyone seriously believe this psy-ops release? Where Gallup got this number is a mystery, but the convenient assistance it provides Obama is very suspect. Those who think Catholics will support Obama are deluding themselves.
How any practicing Catholic who understands their faiths teaching could vote for a Democrat is beyond me...
However, Obama won by basically disgust at Bush, than anything else... Conservatives stayed home. At least in my state... had PA Voter turn out been the same across the state as it was in ‘04, Obama likely would not have won, even with the higher votes he got in Pittsburgh and Philly.
Fact is, the BUSH administration, IMHO was horrible at PR. They rarely got out their message or even tried to.. They let the opposition brow beat them daily, usually with lies and half truths, and instead of vehemently defending themselves daily they just quietly kept on keeping on. And while they were largely doing the right things, they never effectively countered the crap, so the crap in the general consciousness became fact.
This set the stage for depressed voter turnout, and silliness that was the 08 election.
If the Bush presidency teaches any lessons it should be, NEVER EVER let an allegation go unchallenged. Respond hard, fast and to EVERY single attack that is made.