Skip to comments.Polls and the "Credibility Scam"
Posted on 05/09/2012 8:11:18 AM PDT by LazamatazEdited on 05/09/2012 8:20:22 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
Polls have many purposes. To the chattering political classes in Washington, D.C., they are purposed to get a gauge of public opinion. To the political operative, they are utilized to mold public opinion, by the infamous push poll (in which campaign claims are imbedded in the poll questions themselves), or by portraying a candidate as more popular than they are, or even by painting a demographic as unreasonable or absurd (such as the PPP poll that was only run in the southern states that asked if interracial marriage was wrong, and if Obama was a Muslim). To the public, they are read and used, by some, to jump on the bandwagon of a winner -- after all, nobody likes to vote for a loser.
Many times, polls seem to contradict common sense: A grossly-unpopular politician appears to poll above a much more popular opponent. When these polls unfold, a look to the makeup of the sample is in order. Oftentimes, a poll that favors the Democrats by a certain percent, will have the Democrats oversampled by that exact same percent.
Yet, the polling organizations that are most egregious in the manipulation of their samples, to create a result they favor, will point to the polls just prior to the elections. "Why," they shrilly yell, "We were within 2 points of the actual election results! Thusly we are credible!"
And herein lies the scam.
Throughout the entire season preceding an election, a less-ethical and more-partisan polling organization can oversample Democrats or Republicans as much as they wish, and apply all sorts of statistical and mathmatical trickery. They can word their questions in a biased manner. They can try to set a tone for 'their candidate'. They can 'push poll'.
And then, when the election is a week, or less, away, they can revert to more honest polling techniques and samples.
And then they can falsely claim credibility, and misleadingly state how they were 'never partisan' and 'always fair'.
This may be the real reason that elections 'tighten up' at the end of every voting season.
Please substitute the following for the mangled first paragraph. I must have screwed up in my word processor!
“Polls have many purposes. To the chattering political classes in Washington, D.C., they are purposed to get a gauge of public opinion. To the political operative, they are utilized to mold public opinion, by the infamous ‘push poll (in which campaign claims are imbedded in the poll questions themselves), or by portraying a candidate as more popular than they are, or even by painting a demographic as unreasonable or absurd”
Welcome to the world of online publishing. Unless we have a fleet of editors backing us up, we’re doomed to err occasionally, and it’s exposed to all...
I know. It’s okay. Admin Mod will help me out. :)
Thank you Mister Sidebar. :)
I didn’t know your brother Raz was an Ad Mod...
You shoulda known that already, Uncle Bcscomataz!
You’re most welcome!
I took a poll at my house and found that 100% of repondents don’t put much stock in polls.
You make good points about polling facts and fallacies. The other factor that plays in, is that the MSM then takes the poll results and reports them or does not report them, or emphasizes their potential inaccuracy or not, depending on the slant the media outlet chooses to employ. This adds to the likelihood that what the majority of the public hears about polls and their results is further skewed to support an agenda that is not the least bit “fair and accurate”.
Good points, about how the media plays the poll! It’s almost orchestral, how they play every instrument to create the song.
I think you are oversampling MileHi by 100%. :)
I still think you are a ploptimist...
Birdie, birdie in the sky
Let a turdie in my eye
I’m a big boy, I won’t cry
Boy, I’m sure glad cows don’t fly...
(Cows don’t fly... Right!)
Please add me to your TOLSFSD ping list.
Are you claiming trademark to customers or satisfied customers?
Like the one I'm starting to use whenever anyone asks to be added.
"Another Satisfied CustomerTM!"
Oh, and yes you are added and thanks for the request!
Here are some pole questions I’d like to ask liberls:
1. Do you favor hot poles are cold poles?
2. Do you favor straight poles or gay poles?
3. Do you favor wood poles or metal poles?
4. Do you prefer smoking poles or riding poles?
5. Should poles be banned in commercial tent structures?
6. Do you favor legislation that would tax poles based on size?
More liberal pole questions you never see:
1. Which do you believe to be true: Obama is 1) a Muslim or 2) a natural born Kenyan?
2. I believe Obama is: 1) Unqualified for the job or 2) Destroying America with his socialist policies
3. I believe the consitution is: 1) An old document that is outdated and irrelevant or 2) Does not have anything to do with how a president governs.
THOSE ARE GREAT. LOL