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Posted on 07/02/2012 5:48:26 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
June 22, 2012
If the U.S. presidential election were held today, President Obama could count on 221 electoral votes, while presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney could count on 170. With 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency and 538 up for grabs, 147 electoral votes currently fall into the tossup category.
This data comes from the excellent website Real Clear Politics, which keeps a running record of recent state polling by several reputable firms and how their findings translate into the projection of electoral votes. With the president only 49 votes short of the number he needs to win re-election, it’s worth noting that in 2008, he won all but 10 of the 12 states currently classified as tossups.
(Excerpt) Read more at allvoices.com ...
The problem with RCP is that RCP relies on state polls of dubious values and agendas.
The thing about Romney is that he’s doing a decent job of campaigning but that decent isn’t going to cut it. He’s really going to have to get out there and fight.
Obama still has the inside track, but he won’t win by as much as he did in 2008.
Where is Rove, Coulter, McCain, Grahamnesty and all the other Romney-bots? I thought they said Romney had it in the bag if he got the nomination.
Rove is claiming that Obama is burning up his campaign funds at an extreme rate such that he will be low by late summer.
Why would anyone reelect this incompetent doofus????
Sad, disappointing, and disgusting to say the least, at least for me!
I hope the polls are wrong.
Romney is in great position to win. Obama is running in the 40s in these swing states, and undecided historically break for the challenger 2-1.
I can’t wait until November!
There are “conservatives” here on FR who would be willing to accept 4 more years of 0bama over 0bama. Remember ‘0bama is not a magic underwear wearing mormon’. /sar
Then why not just use his executive powers and hold the election right now then.
With his executive powers, why hold an election at all? President for Life.
Romeny might win Wisconsin and Michigan. If 0bama cannot win Michigan or Wisconsin he is not going to win Ohio and Florida. Romney is going to win Virginia, North Carolina, and all of Nebraska.
RCP allows bogus polls to be placed into its sampling which skews them greatly. The pollsters know this. A few weeks ago Romney was like .4 away from Obama and then Bloomberg came out with a poll showing Obama up 13 (by polling 52% Dems). RCP allowed this poll into its sample.
My honest guess is that the economy will really be in the crapper by Novemeber, which means Romney will be adequate. I swore I wouldn’t vote for Mitt, but Obama is so bad that I will have to.
Even though Obama has the advantage at present, still need to remember Romney hasn’t even been formally nominated, nor has he selected a running mate.
But Romney and EVERYONE running against the dems have to start pounding away on the Obamacare issue. The regime can’t be allowed to have a one-sided conversation.
No judgment, there! The problem with RCP methodology at this stage of the game is that for many states the most recent polling was either performed by a dubious group or was last taken months ago. All I can do is look at the overall numbers, the state demographics and economies and make my own guesses. (Nevada isn't going for Zero. Please!) My guess is that if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would lose in a landslide. If the 'rats weren't in deep trouble, would Zero be making panicked calls to big donors from Air Force One?
Two weeks later, we see the same percentage in Arkansas. The same day in Kentucky, Obama’s on the ballot by himself, but in Kentucky you can vote “uncommitted,” and 42 percent of the Democrats in Kentucky voted for “uncommitted” over the incumbent president of their own party. We saw the same thing in Wisconsin, where things were supposed to be neck-and-neck, and it turns out that Walker wins by at least 7 points. So there’s something going on out there that the polls are not picking up.
Two term California house member Tom McClintock
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