How 'The Shy Republican' Could Be Masking a Landslide

American Thinker ^ | August 30, 2012 | Adam Shaw

[AU72]

To many, especially those of us on the right, it seems peculiar that Obama is still remotely in the race. I propose that all polls, not just left-leaning polls, may be being strongly misled by their data, and Romney/Ryan may actually have a huge lead not seen in polls. It is my contention that this is due to a mix of the infamous Bradley effect and what is known in Britain as "the Shy Tory Factor," with both coming together to exaggerate just how popular Obama is in America. Yet there is another factor that, mixed with Bradley, could radically distort the numbers -- and it is a concept not known in America, but known very well in the United Kingdom. Called "The Shy Tory Effect,". The concept was coined after the British general election of 1992, the final result was a total shock -- a comfortable win for the Tories,. According to the mainstream media, the Republicans want to deny people health care, throw Granny off a cliff, and generally reduce the country to a Dickensian nightmare when the rich get richer, and it is not difficult to see why those intending to vote Republican may not wish to publicly identify as so, even to a pollster promising anonymity, in fear of being judged as the new Jim Crow. The Bradley effect has been influential, if at all, only by a few overall percentage points. But if it is wrapped up with an American version of the much more powerful "Shy Tory Factor," we conservatives may be in for a treat in the form of a massive landslide come the first Tuesday in November.

[Evil Slayer]

I wouldn’t put it past Obamanazi to declare martial law just before the election. Reason? He knows he will lose. Result? One hell of a revolution.

[ClarenceThomasfan]

I am one of those “shy” Republican voters. I don’t discuss politics with family and friends. When the phone rings and the caller ID says “acme polling company” I ignore it.

I can imagine if a loud mouthed rabid liberal got the same call they would immediately pick it up and register their radical views. I don’t need to do this. I know what I value and who I will vote for and I don’t need to broadcast it or validate it. I show my views at the voting booth.

[Cen-Tejas]

........LOL, sir, you struck a cord with me! That day in November 2008 that Obama won, I made a decision. On a bumper sticker it was SELL, SELL, SELL,.........so I did. Fortunately, I beat the odds on my good assets and lost bad on some others. Net effect was NET though and I have been living in the Caribbean ever since. In fact, I am 189’ from it as I type.

My admonition to All though, and basically it’s the same admonition as 90% plus of freepers pound on everyday is... “in what part of your anatomy was your head man (back in 2008)....because many of us knew everything back then that we do today about the man”.

I am just one very small developer but I have several projects I will get out, dust off and start thinking seriously about on the morning of Nov. 7 IF the socialists and marxists currently holding power are fired decisively by the American people!

Excuse me for now, the beach is calling!

[ryan71]

I'm betting more obama supporters will stay home than will go to the polls.

[Signalman]

Carter won one state, ashamed to say Massachusetts.

Carter won 6 states in 1980. MA, GA, WV, MD, HI and RI plus D.C. Mondale, however, won only 1 state in 1984. Minnesota (and of course, D.C.)

[Signalman]

Carter won 6 states in 1980. MA, GA, WV, MD, HI and RI plus D.C. Mondale, however, won only 1 state in 1984. Minnesota (and of course, D.C.)

Correction. Carter did not win MA in 1980. The MA should have read, MN (Minnesota).

[PapaNew]

I should be so lucky. I've always said that tax hikes are a leading indicator (as well as a POTUS you know will raise taxes). Obviously Obama himself was a leading indicator. Good for you.

Whereabouts in the Caribbean? Were you in Isaac's path? I'd love to be there in the winter but seems like it would be awfully humid in the summer as well as a sitting duck for all the Irene's and Isaac's of the world.

[PapaNew]

I should be so lucky. I've always said that tax hikes are a leading indicator (as well as a POTUS you know will raise taxes). Obviously Obama himself was a leading indicator. Good for you.

Whereabouts in the Caribbean? Were you in Isaac's path? I'd love to be there in the winter but seems like it would be awfully humid in the summer as well as a sitting duck for all the Irene's and Isaac's of the world.

[dps.inspect]

Ya, not ever hispanics can say anything bad about Obama for fear of being called a "White-Hispanic"... All this effort to marginalize the white voter and white society in general is doing one UNSPEAKABLE thing; they"re creating a "White Caucus" in America. What they will not admit, too, is that this "White Caucus" would happily vote for a red blooded black American. Next presidential election, I hope to see a viable Black Conservative Candidate go against Romney if he doesn't govern more toward the right after winning this election.

[stickywillie]

I don’t discuss politics with family and friends.......then why are you telling us?

[Always A Marine]

Rasmussen just did a poll. As of August 2012 approx 37% of voters considered themselves Republicans, 34% Democrats and the rest independents. How many polls do you see reflecting those internals. Most of the polls have the democrats sampled at a higher percentage than the republicans and in some case by a wide margin.

Bingo! Here's my take, regardless of the shifting "polls" that are designed to manipulate behavior... Show me ONE 2008 McCain voter who now supports Obama in 2012 - just one. And then start counting the large numbers of 2008 Obama voters who now confess their regret and/or disillusionment, and who say they'll either vote GOP or perhaps not vote at all.

Let's vote!

[Slyfox]

Do you remember the Star Trek episode where Spock was taking his old boss back to that planet which would transform him into a whole person?

Do you remember that old captain shooting his phaser at the rock and it "appeared" to not have any effect? But, actually he had burnt a hole clean through the rock.

That is what the lamestream left is doing right now to our effort - making us think that whatever we do is having absolutely no effect whatsoever, however we are blowing holes clean through the walls.

They think we are a bunch of chumps.

At some point, the veil will be lifted for all to see just how puny these rats really are.

[Joe Boucher]

Yes PapaNew,
but obammy is an clean articulate negro with a nice smile.
Least that’s how joe the drunk described him and he still is a clean articulate negro with a nice smile.
Nothing more but that nice smile.

[DuncanWaring]

If this is true, then the actual vote in 2008 should have been closer than the polling suggested/predicted (lots of people saying “I’m going to vote for Obama”, and then voting for McCain).

Does anyone recall if this was actually the case?

[melancholy]

As it is good news for America, this may trigger plan “B” of the communist regime, violence.

We The People have to be ready to defend ourselves, our families and our property. We should punish public enemy #1, the MSM, with the same severity of our suffering. It’s the only way to protect our beloved Republic from its DOMESTIC TERRORIST ENEMIES who are armed with pens and cameras and spreading communist ideology.

If it weren’t for the communist media, we wouldn’t be talking about saving the Republic and having to fight for our lives.

Academia will take the brunt of the second wave to free our children from the communist claws.

If the communists know what’s good for them, they’d better forget about their plan “B.”

[Gorzaloon]

I am one of those “shy” Republican voters. I don’t discuss politics with family and friends. When the phone rings and the caller ID says “acme polling company” I ignore it.

We were discussing this at dinner the other night.There is an interesting effect going on, but I have no idea how significant it might become..

Most likely:

If I were black and intended to vote for R-R, I would NEVER let my peers find out about it.

The same is true if I were Union, or had a heavily Socialist family.

I do not want to hear them. I do not want to argue with them.

And in simple fact I do not want to know them.

I want them gone.

[Alas Babylon!]

Huh? I was stationed on Cape Cod during the 1980 Election, and I very well remember Reagan winning Mass, much to my very happy conservative a$$!

He didn’t win by much, but win REAGAN DID!

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=25&year=1980&f=0&off=0

[Cen-Tejas]

“Whereabouts in the Caribbean? Were you in Isaac’s path? I’d love to be there in the winter but seems like it would be awfully humid in the summer as well as a sitting duck for all the Irene’s and Isaac’s of the world.”

No Sir, Issac, here on St. Croix was much ado about nothing. I was amazed at how much strength it gained after passing us by. Our temp fluctuates between mid to low seventies at night with a cool breeze off the water 90% of the time and maybe as high as 90 during the day 365 days a year. There really are no discernible seasons other than typed on the calendars. If there is one reason to be here, I would say it would be “weather”. In Texas, I was used to a 100 degree temp swing. Here I love the 15-20 max swing and feel much better each day because of it. That said, I do miss Texas and will be going back “again” in a few weeks to “Hook Em”............but both my kids graduated from A & M, so flamers!, I am a Gig Em father too !!!.........all but one day!!!

[Jabba the Nutt]

"At time of writing, polls show the race for the presidency to be tight."

Dick Morris says that 45-46% race is not tight. The incumbent will not pick up the undecided vote. So, we're looking at 54% to 46%.

Then if we add the Bradley effect and Shy Republican votes plus the disappointment affect among Democrats, Obama will be lucky to get 40%.

I'm on record with this from weeks and weeks ago.

[PapaNew]

Obama will be lucky to get 40%

Please...Please...