Posted on 09/18/2012 6:15:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The sample: 42D/37R/16I, or D+5. That’s not bad for an outfit that's had some truly dreadful samples so far this year, but it's still a few points bluer than election day is likely to be. The poll was conducted from September 12 to 16, too, which means it's missed the last few days of Obama's disappearing bounce. No telling what'll happen once the "47 percent" comments are priced in, but these numbers aren't remotely as bad as you'd expect from all the media shrieking over Romney's Libya comments last week. In fact, it's O who's taken a hit on foreign policy: He's down 12 points, to just 41 percent, on that question among independents since last month’s poll.
So what’s keeping him afloat? The, er … economy:
According to the survey, 39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.
That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009.
Forty-two percent of voters also believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is a 6-point jump from August, and a 15-point rise from July.
What’s more, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy – up 3 points from last month. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent for the first time since March.
He’s now tied with Romney on the economy at 43. Note the trendline here too:
I have no idea how to explain that surge in optimism except to treat it as a gift to O from Bill Clinton, whose speech in defense of Dem-onomics is probably the single biggest thing driving Obama’s convention bounce. As we know from Gallup, though, the bounce is already fading, so unless we get a surprisingly rosy jobs report next month, expect this number to deflate by the time of the next (and final) WSJ/NBC poll. Exit quotation from the WSJ write-up: “At the same time, Mr. Romney leads the president by 3 percentage points among voters who rate themselves highly interested in the race, an advantage that could make a difference in who casts ballots on Election Day.”
Update: Almost forgot: A few readers e-mailed about this WaPo poll of Virginia today showing Obama up by eight(!) among likely voters — based on a sample of D+9. In 2008 on election day, it was only D+6; Obama ended up winning the state by six points. He’s ahead there right now, but most other recent polls have him up five points, not eight.
They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August
That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year. So why the heck are they sampling a D+5 in their poll? Makes no sense at all....
Wouldn’t it be a better poll if they used the same percentage for both parties. At least if one side is not polling to their liking. With this lopsided percentages, it does not do any good for either side. Very weird.
Because they are running what is called a “push poll” which is a form of psyops designed to discourage their opposition from voting.
Because they are running what is called a “push poll” which is a form of psyops designed to discourage their opposition from voting.
If You Live in a Blue State, Here Is What You Can Do To Help Romney Beat Obama
I've made 1600 phone calls from home to NH in the last six days using the system set up by the campaign. Even 100 calls will make a difference. Who will join me?
Have to admit, 0 up 5 in a D+5 survey is a little nerve-racking. Usually, he’s up 3 in a D+12 survey.
The sample is dem ~+7 the voter latest voter ID is R +1.23 to dems are oversampled By over 8% and it is a registered voter poll IOW crap.
P Hart used to be a dem pollster.
All of the internals are RV — worthless.
When the Bancroft family owned the Wall Street Journal, it was a publication without peer in terms of journalistic integrity. The sale to NewsCorp started its slow slide to mediocrity, which has accelerated in recent months. If this poll is as inaccurate as I suspect it is and Romney wins the election handily—as I expect—I will conclude my 27 years of paid subscription to the WSJ. There are plenty of others like me.
Let’s see. The poll has a D+5 advantage.
Meanwhile, in Realville, the GOP has a 4.3% advantage nationally.
Further, while this poll has the GOP at about their real national level (37%), nationally, the Dems are only at 33%, not 42%. Further, Indies are WAY undersampled in this one (16% versus the REAL 29% that they have).
So, to adjust the poll, drop the Dems by 9% immediately, and then add 7% to Romney and 5% to Obama, to reflect the way the extra 13% Indies would breakdown, figuring in that a 5-7% chunk of Indies (the remaining 1%) are Libertarians/Greens/Constitution Party/etc. whom neither candidate will get.
Result: Romney 52%, Obama 46%, Other 2%
LS - this seem reasonable?
I wonder if some of those who are thinking the country is headed in the right direction think that way because they believe the Republicans are going to take back the White House, and the Senate. ;o)
Lastest voter ID is GOP +4.3 nationally now.
Read the comments and you see that NBC pollster was playing tricks with the weight and its a +7 Dem and way off independent ratio .
More fun and games from the National Barack Channel .
Sad to see WSJ has fallen to the left too.
RE: Read the comments and you see that NBC pollster was playing tricks with the weight and its a +7 Dem and way off independent ratio .
You must be referring to this comment ( might as well post it here for everyone else to see ):
_____________________________
Okay, this is a crap poll, and I’m going to explain why.
In this case, the magic number is 42%
Look at the party breakdown at the poll, look at it holistically. The fact that it’s D+5 is pointless, because democrats make up 42% of the sample. This is a much larger portion of the electorate than in 2008, and its made at the expense of independents.
This is latest trick pollsters have been using to fluff Obama’s numbers, without making the overall poll look infeasible. In short, Romney could have a 20% lead among independents, and Obama still might lead narrowly. When only 16% of a poll is made up of independents, winning independents amount to very very little.
Case in point.
According to this poll, 43% of respondents approve of Obama’s handling of the Economy. However, 42% of the respondents are democrats, and you can assume that at least 90% will say they approve of Obama’s handling no matter what. If you look at the numbers with that in mind, it’s quite clear that Obama’s getting MURDERED on his handling of the economy. It means that almost no independents or republicans approved of Obama’s economic stewardship, cause if they had his numbers would’ve been a lot higher than that.
This is why you cannot pay very close attention to polls right now. There is no way, whatsoever, that only 16% of voters are going to independents, nor is there anyway that democrats are going to make up 42% of the vote.
Yes, at a glance it may only look like it’s D+5, but in reality that number is entirely misleading.
Not only oversampled on Dems, undersampled on Indies. And every poll, even the ones with Romney behind, shows him winning Indies by a two-digit margin.
There's your answer, Smitty.
There's your answer, Smitty. It's also got a percentage of indies that is around half what Rasmussen uses.
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