Posted on 09/19/2012 10:10:58 AM PDT by Ravi
above
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Actually this result shows that Romney is winning by a substantial margin.
Given the likely oversampling of democrats and using registered voters Gallup can barely muster up a lead.
Keep hammering The Disaster.
Registered Voters! Excellent. Likely Voters trend to Romney harder.
Better yet, the Swing States are within 2% in a Registered Voter poll. And the Trend is not 0bummer’s friend.
“Registered voters in key 2012 election swing states remain closely divided in their presidential vote preferences, with 48% supporting President Barack Obama and 46% Mitt Romney.”
For both Rasmussen and Gallup, today includes the first full day of measurement after the manufactured brouhaha re: the “47%” comment by Romney.
Please post for us the D/R/I breakdown of this poll. Thanks.
If You Live in a Blue State, Here Is What You Can Do To Help Romney Beat Obama
I've made 1600 phone calls from home to New Hampshire in the last six days using the system set up by the campaign. Even 100 calls will make a difference. Who will join me?
The internals are silent on the party breakdown. Gallup usually screws those numbers hard in 0bummer’s favor.
Rasmussen said yesterday that if you break this down to likely voters Romney is up between 3-4 points
I’ve managed to rework the other RCP polls using a 32D-32R-36I breakdown, but the Gallup numbers are not present for me to do the same. Using the weighting of different polls that has worked for me in the past, Romney is up .35 or .5 (without Gallup) compared to a 1 - 2 point Obama lead before the conventions.
Seven day average means a very good Obama day (9/11) fell off, probably replaced by a bad Obama day.
We’ll see the delayed result of the Mideast/Libya situation from now.
Gallup always lags relative to Rasmussen because of its longer period.
Listening to my am commute talk radio in DFW, cbs news ran info that obummer is leading Romney in the “kinniac” poll, in all states. Not sure on spelling and had never heard of that “poll”. Lies, damn lies, and more lies.
Oh brother, the alphabet media are truly american pravda.
When you go to the web site for the poll there is NO breakdown given. Wonder why? Could it be even more egregious than the typical 5-8% over sampling of the Ds?
I suspect that Romney has at least a 5% lead and a poll which used likely voters and a correct sampling would show this.
Once again the convergence of approval rating and voting percentage. If he stays below 50% approval he loses. Period.
Bush won with 49.5% Job Approval. I’m glad to see it move down. I felt better when it was around 47%.
Other than the Job Approval number, other things in the polls look OK.
For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.
Simply put this is a lie.
Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.
They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August
That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”
That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?
Lets take a look:
2004 George Bush wins re-election
The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.
2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:
In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.
2008 The coming of Barack Obama
The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.
2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party
2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.
Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.
Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.
These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011
This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.
Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:
At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb
What does this mean for November? It means a lot.
The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.
There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.
The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.
Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.
Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.
I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.
Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.
As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.
Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.
Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:
In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.
All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.
Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.
I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me
The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.
Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?
Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:
@datechguyblog I love it..most polls skew conservative but to hear GOP bigots cry over polls is hilarious. #tcot #Wow
— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012
Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting
@datechguyblog Proving the sky is blue, to a bigot, isn’t worth a cold fart in hell. #tcot
— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012
Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?
@datechguyblog I’ve said it. The end. #tcot
— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012
Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.
Talk about hide the decline.
Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem
Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3
Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.
Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.
Update 6: Linked by Hillbuzz, Ace, Neoneocon, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipundit, Evil Blogger Lady and I’m told mentioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.
Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.
Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.
Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated
Look at the thread I put it in, somebody else posted a link to it, and claimed that the graphics were not copiable.
I just applied my HTML-fu to prove them wrong.
Here is the original article.
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