Posted on 10/29/2012 2:04:08 AM PDT by MacMattico
For those DU lurkers reading this they'll probably squeal with delight at this thread, but is Nate Silver's record of political predictions really as great as is posted all over the Internet? I know he's with the NY slimes now, but he did predict the house going R in 2010, albeit only with 45 seats changing sides. (low prediction R) and 2008 he was really on, although that was much easier to call. It's killing me because I'm on pins and needles. I like to think with Gallup and Rasmussen actually in agreement Romney is up, but what am I to think when I hear of Silver's track record and that of some statistician named Wang? I like it that Kasich says we're taking Ohio, but I'm dying here!
Hell, maybe he'll win it for Romney because he's put me in attack and GOTV mode!
Pluck up your courage, as Margaret Thatcher would say.
He’s given himself an out by assigning a 25% chance to win for Romney.
That way he can say he has all his bases covered in the event something unforeseen happened, etc.
That DU nutjobs will be thrilled and Silver still gets to keep his day job with the NYT.
He predicted two of the easiest change elections because
1 : OfA gave him thousands of internal polls to him in 2008 for him to shill for them, we all knew what was happening in 2008.
2 : in 2010, just about everyone knew the house was gonna change hands but he deliberately lowered the expectations to try and kill GOP enthusiasm. He predicted way lower seat gains than we actually got
3 : In 2012, he is all in for his paymasters, its hold the numbers up at all costs by the britches.
Do not trust Nate silver with anything, he is a DKos kid prodigy who will do whatever is necessary to kill Mitt momentum.
In 2008, he was getting obama’s internal poll numbers. In 2010, he gave the GOP low odds of taking the House, and then kept revising his numbers upwards throughout the year. I don’t think he ever got higher than 70% odds for the takeover, and was off by 15 seats.
He’s no different than any other pundit, but uses statistical gobbledygook to make it seem like he’s doing something scientific.
I don’t know anything about Silver’s record. The election will turn on GOTV. Romney’s done his part; we have to do ours.
Nate is about to get his behind handed to him.
Spell check did not engage this early in the morning. new = knew
With Gas prices, food prices so high, housing so low, no real full time jobs, part time jobs that may go away in the next round of layoffs; CAN I AFFORD TO DO THIS FOR FOUR MORE YEARS??
If "always right" means "never wrong" then the answer to your question is a resounding "NO!". He's wrong this time.
And what's this "convince me that Silver has turned into a total hack." stuff
When was he not a total hack?
Romney’s GOTV machine is very very sophistocated from what i’ve learned, its all connected, poll workers just tap into ipads, ticking off voters as they vote, goes straight back to HQ, if you ain’t voted, Romney HQ phones you up to see why and asks if you need assistance to get there.
I think Romney’s GOTV machine is gonna shock the crap out of Obama’s this year.
Yes, he has always been a hack. But I keep reading how he predicted every state but Indiana in 2008 (the only one to do so) and was the closest in predicting the 2010 elections. I guess I’m being “glass half empty†as there are many other organizations saying Romney will win but I’m so scared for our country if we have four more years of Obama!! Of course I turned on Morning Joe just to get the moron point of view and they keep saying how it’s tied and Romney is doing better then expected. So it looks like they’re a little scared so that’s reassuring!
Pop a barrel of popcorn and enjoy the show Tues Nov 6
Show begins 8 pm EST on every liberal MSM network.
MSDNC will be a riot to watch. Spit boy Matthews will likely have a stroke on live TV, and their resident Dyke will swear like a drunk sailor.
I REALLY love what you’re saying! And I love Beagles!!
You mean Daily Koz former employee !
This clown is a Axelrod stooge .
The Scott recall he was running around peddling the big lie that Scott was going to lose in a upset !
He was dead wrong
Michael Barone said Romney will win. That’s all I need to know. Barone > Silver by a long shot
LLS
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