Cheers!
Posted on 10/31/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by Arthurio
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters.
Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9).
Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall.
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.
There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.
The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30.
Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/31/fox-news-poll-race-for-white-house-dead-heat/#ixzz2AuxJtsiO
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Exactly.
The only way that math works is if the RATs have a minimum of a five point turnout edge.
I just don’t see it happening.
Liberals and leftists are endlessly trying to fuel the class-sex-race warfare . In their lunatic but cynical minds they try to impose the rough and poor pattern of labelled natural victims against natural oppressors.
In that simplistic pattern women , as a whole , are among the groups of endless and per se “victims”.
And the leftist fake religion pretends to take care of the “victims”
OK, but Fox News isn’t affiliate with Fox Polling.
Plus, the only change from last time to this time was Obama gained one point from 45 to 46 — still a lousy place for an incumbent to be less than a week before election day.
This poll is one of the most encouraging ones that came out today, IMO.
Well for starters, a large number of them genuinely believe Republicans are against their personal privacy rights and want to control their reproductive organs. They believe that affordable abortions and birth control and making sure women don’t earn 75 cents for every dollar men earn are the biggest priorities. Obama’s team has been remarkably effective in convincing them of that.
According the the economist it is looking fairly awful for Romney as well.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/us-election-2012
I fear that Hurricane Sandy may have brought additional bad press onto Romney because of his past comments on FEMA which lead many people to believe that if Romney were President FEMA would be completely defunded and private charities would not be able to replace FEMA’s role and people would just starve and perish. That is the message the American public seems to be getting, and so it is another blow to Romney on top of the momentum he lost during his campaign.
And look at most of the comments as well. Noone should be saying these things of Conservative enthusiasm was what people say it is. Again, I had thought that in 1980 and 1984, by now it was so obvious Reagan was gonna win that even the polls were universally showing Reagan was gonna be the winner and no Democrats were giving his opponents any confidence at this stage of the election. And it doesn’t look like that is happening now.
And also, what is the probability that the Republicans can win enough Senate seats in MI, WI, IA, the Midwest in general and the Northeast to secure a Senate majority ? I feel at the very least, Republicans will still have the House after this election, what about the Senate ?
if Republicans can win the Senate majority and win control of enough state governments, than that means they can keep some semblance of America alive over the next 4 years regardless of who wins the presidential elections. That is why i wish we had more information and more data on trends in the Senate election and hope to God conservatives are also campaigning their asses off to get a Republican majority in the Senate. Remember that Obama’s team may be so desperate to get him reelected that they overlook the Senate - and won’t be as persistent in winning the Senate by all means possible, legal or otherwise - and so in theory the Senate should be wide open for a Republican and even somewhat genuine Conservative takeover. IF, that is, the statements about increased Conservative enthusiasm are true.
Rasmussen was not the most accurate in the last Presidential election.
Obama won by a 7.2 margin, 52.9 to 45.7 percent.
Rasmussen underestimated Obama with a 6-point margin, 52/46.
CNN & Ipsos were more accurate with a 7-point margin, 53/46.
>>What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?<<
First of all, do you really think Obama thinks they’re true? I don’t. He wouldn’t be spending money where he is if he did. Second, you’re missing at least part of the issue: the polling that is over sampling D’s isn’t trying to be accurate; they’re trying to create the impression that the election really is close so 1) their voters will go to the polls and 2) they can scream “stolen” when they lose.
In 2009, I found that in order for Obama to win reelection, he would have to at the very least maintain the number of votes he got in 2008. There is NO WAY that happens. Had we ran an actual conservative candidate in 2008, Rs would have barely won or been barely defeated (possible 2000 like electoral victory either way). 2008 was the story of McCain, not Obama and this year there is no hiding that.
>>What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?<<
First of all, do you really think Obama thinks they’re true? I don’t. He wouldn’t be spending money where he is if he did. Second, you’re missing at least part of the issue: the polling that is over sampling D’s isn’t trying to be accurate; they’re trying to create the impression that the election really is close so 1) their voters will go to the polls and 2) they can scream “stolen” when they lose.
In 2009, I found that in order for Obama to win reelection, he would have to at the very least maintain the number of votes he got in 2008. There is NO WAY that happens. Had we ran an actual conservative candidate in 2008, Rs would have barely won or been barely defeated (possible 2000 like electoral victory either way). 2008 was the story of McCain, not Obama and this year there is no hiding that.
The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.
My tagline since September. You must look at the basis for the polls.
The numbers are not there for Obama this time.
HI, CA, IL, DC, PA(maybe), MD, DE, and NM(maybe) are going to go Obama.
That will be about it.
Thanks. The Hugh Hewitt interviews w/ the Quinnipac & Marist pollsters were interesting and confirms a few of my suspicions.
I do think they’re being forthright when they say they simply report whatever party ID the caller claims to be. But I could speculate many reasons that the population databases of phone#s that the pollsters pull their random samples from might be ill-representative of the actual electorate likely to vote. There could even be issues w/ the question phrasing itself that causes R-leaning voters to not respond.
I have heard good things about the Romney campaign’s GOTV infrastructure.
No one posts stuff like this over & over & over again without some kind of agenda. It’s the same crap day after day week after week. I call BS on this.
Fox News polls have always had a Dem bias. They outright predicted a Kerry victory! So your little act of pretending like Fox produced GOP friendly polling is disingenuous.
46-46 is devastating for an incumbent 1 week out.
Rasmussen was the most consistently accurate. Other polls went back and forth with wild swings often to double digit leads for Obama. Ras has it pegged as a 4 to 6 point race pretty much from mid September onwards.
Needy Abused Girlfriend Syndrome (NAGS).
Fair and balance
Cheers!
Even if the Fox poll wasn’t skewed, a 46-46 tie usually translates into a 52-48 victory for the challenger as the undecided usually break to the challenger by a huge margin. Given the sampling bias, and the fact that we have overwhelmingly won every single election (from Mass to NJ to the 2010 midterm, to Scott Walker) that has been held since Obama took office, I am very optimistic about this election.
Upmost I am willing to bet a dime to a dozen doughnuts has an IP on DU, playing concern troll on there also, like the whipped Republican trying to make nice with the idiots. Upmost you are not trying to be honestly skeptical, you are just being a contrarian, flicking your intellectual ashes on the rest of us. All due respect to your horrid grammar and your use of 50 cent words, you sound like you have your mind made up. You want to seem smarter more nuanced than the rest of us koolaid drinkers huh? You or the other concern trolls and surrender monkeys have yet to address one point that has been hammered here. Answer it before you emote again. Let me ask you or the other tools in this thread who just want to create disharmony. I’ll go slow because you nuanced , intellectuals need things clear...DO...YOU ...THINK...DEMOCRAT ..TURNOUT..WILL..BE ...AT ...OR ...ABOVE ...2008…. LEVELS? Don’t emote, complain, wax poetic here unless you can answer that. Since you want to be honest and not follow the herd, if you answer that question honestly can’t you see what people have been saying ,…you are being irrational.
The poll is crap...BTW I predicted that Fox particularly would do this very thing with their last poll.
They have a big swing with independents for Obama. Fox should give up polling..We had to listen to the lies of OPINION DYNAMICS for years, now they have found another group of liberal pollsters.
Sure they claim one guy is a Republican that does the poll, probably a RINO. NBC/WSJ has a token Republican with their poll as well, but is run by the dem guy
Shawn Hannity agrees with me, though he never mentioned the Fox Poll last night, the silence was deafening, he mentioned Ras and another. Not a word about the bogus Fox poll.
And Bret Baer on Special report, says....New Fox Poll shows that the advantage Romney had after first debate is now gone, the race is now dead even
He had to listen to Jaun tell him that Obama had big gains with independents in poll...Obama picks up 10 points with Indys in handling of economy, and overall picks up 7 points with indys, while Romney only moves up 2
Garbage lies
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