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Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!)
DC Examiner ^ | 11/02/12 | Michael Barone (The Godfather)

Posted on 11/02/2012 2:34:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio

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Michael Barone knows more about elections than any human alive, I'd guess, right down to the precinct level. This is a bold prediction, but I don't think he'd make it unless he was confident in the outcome.
1 posted on 11/02/2012 2:35:00 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
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To: TonyInOhio

Just heard Barone on Hannity. Says there is still a concern that O could win this thing given all the flaws in polling - could be masking patterns.....

But, he sounded pretty confident on RR win.


2 posted on 11/02/2012 2:40:13 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: TonyInOhio

I agree with Michael Barone.

He knows American politics far better than any one alive and I respect his judgment.

I think its a good call. Romney won’t win more than 322 electoral votes max. He can afford to lose a few states and still win the presidency.


3 posted on 11/02/2012 2:40:57 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: TonyInOhio

What kind of prediction record does Barone have? Just curious.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 2:42:50 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: TonyInOhio

True.

If I wanted to hear from anyone predicting a Romney victory it would be him.


5 posted on 11/02/2012 2:43:38 PM PDT by traderrob6
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To: TonyInOhio; Nachum; Ernest_at_the_Beach; maggief; penelopesire; SE Mom; RedMDer; DJ MacWoW; ...

Keep praying and VOTE!


6 posted on 11/02/2012 2:43:54 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: TonyInOhio

That is what I was thinking. He is a walking talking voting by precinct all over the USA genius. I’m buying be a bottle of wine for election night. To celebrate. & hopefully starting early. All these threads and polls today have me a little uptight so I’ll need that wine by Tuesday.


7 posted on 11/02/2012 2:44:32 PM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: TonyInOhio

This is big time good news! Barone is the most respected in the business when it comes to analyzing this thing all the way down to the CD. Someone said one time that you can ask him about virtually any CD and he can talk for hours about its makeup, its history, touchpoint issues, demographics, etc. He knows US elections like the back of his hand.


8 posted on 11/02/2012 2:46:49 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Barone has to be pretty confident, normally holds his cards closer to his vest than this, good sign.


9 posted on 11/02/2012 2:46:49 PM PDT by The Cajun (Sarah Palin, Mark Levin......Nuff said.)
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To: Qwackertoo

Barone can analyse an election down to a block-by-block basis (almost). He must see big stuff for Romney to predict this 4 days out.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 2:49:54 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: TonyInOhio

Thanks Michael.

Confirming your feel for a Mitt win. You know your stuff and I trust your read more than the pollsters who ask for money and then call it too close to call in the end.


11 posted on 11/02/2012 2:50:05 PM PDT by patriotspride
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To: Qwackertoo

I’m going to be cruising on the Disney Wonder. The only TV channels they get for news are ABC and CNN. I’m pretty nervous, but reading this article may keep me from jumping overboard.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 2:51:09 PM PDT by sissyjane (Obama lied, our HEROES died!)
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To: The Cajun

How do you post more than 300 words????


13 posted on 11/02/2012 2:51:13 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: TonyInOhio

I now feel about 99% better. Barone’s one of the very few pundits who aren’t named Rush Limbaugh I respect.


14 posted on 11/02/2012 2:53:19 PM PDT by Snake65
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To: goldstategop

I’ve been thinking 322, but Barone has a point about the casino turnout machine, so I might be wrong on Nevada.


15 posted on 11/02/2012 2:56:21 PM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: wolf24
Says there is still a concern that O could win steal this thing given all the flaws in polling fraud in voting.

There...fixed it.
16 posted on 11/02/2012 2:56:25 PM PDT by Lucky9teen (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading.~Thomas Jeffer)
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To: Hojczyk
How do you post more than 300 words????

Huh, whut???????

17 posted on 11/02/2012 3:01:40 PM PDT by The Cajun (Sarah Palin, Mark Levin......Nuff said.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Barone is brilliant, but what was his prediction in 2008?

Karl Rove was almost on the money in ‘08 and predicted Romney, albeit by a smaller margin than Barone is saying.


18 posted on 11/02/2012 3:04:42 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: TonyInOhio

The most important fact that I take away from Barone is that less and less voters answer their phones to participate in polls. With caller ID most screen their incoming calls. Personally, I have been not answered numerous calls from IPSOS, Survey USA and various front groups. Michael feels that pollsters are very worried about future techniques they can use to keep their profession viable and cost effective.


19 posted on 11/02/2012 3:05:08 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: TonyInOhio
I agree with Baron- but wouldn't adding these long shots be sweet:

Michigan a stretch for sure, but with a declining Detroit population and low turnout....

The surprise could be Nevada based on Mormon turnout. I just don't know if the population in the rural areas is enough to overcome the Union thugs in Clark County.

Final spiking of the football would be one electoral vote in Maine.....

20 posted on 11/02/2012 3:12:26 PM PDT by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: TonyInOhio

Whatever Michael Barone says WRT elections, I take to the bank.

President Romney.


21 posted on 11/02/2012 3:14:53 PM PDT by savedbygrace (But God.)
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To: Kahuna

I never answer them either or if they want to ask questions, I hang up.


22 posted on 11/02/2012 3:15:48 PM PDT by janipa
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To: TonyInOhio

Will Barone be working for Fox News on election night? I’ve always looked forward to his analysis as the election unfolds. I didn’t watch much in 2008, so I’m hoping he’s still working as an analyst for them.


23 posted on 11/02/2012 3:18:25 PM PDT by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: Kahuna

“The most important fact that I take away from Barone is that less and less voters answer their phones to participate in polls”

I am thinking the same thing. I think pollsters after this election will have to adjust their polling methods. Very few people are answering their land lines for the pollsters as an example. Some pollsters are still using the 2008 turnout which IMHO is wrong for 1012. I think all of this bodes well for Mitt.


24 posted on 11/02/2012 3:19:11 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: onyx
DITTO!!!!!!

Keep praying and VOTE!

25 posted on 11/02/2012 3:20:24 PM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: TonyInOhio
Barone is a walking encyclopedia when it comes to voters, districts and issues. He is also not given to flamboyance and braggadocio. Caution is his MO and I highly value his opinions on this election.
26 posted on 11/02/2012 3:22:12 PM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: TonyInOhio

Four days until we find out if Mr. Barone’s limb held or if he is doing his Rocky the Flying Squirrel impression.

How I wish I could be as confident as he seemed to be that the accursed obomination is going to be exorcised from the White House.


27 posted on 11/02/2012 3:22:23 PM PDT by Dr.Zoidberg (With (R)epublicans like these, who needs (D)emocrats?)
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To: Arthurio

This shows he thought Obama was likely to win.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/10/30/election-prediction-democrats-wont-get-a-filibuster-proof-senate


28 posted on 11/02/2012 3:23:37 PM PDT by Double Tap
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To: pollywog

God bless and keep, sweet you.


29 posted on 11/02/2012 3:23:54 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: TonyInOhio

I’ll settle for 269-269...270-268 would be better....330-208 would better still.


30 posted on 11/02/2012 3:24:37 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Arthurio

I remember that. Rove was on the money in 08


31 posted on 11/02/2012 3:24:57 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: pollywog

Barone called Obama a week out not sure he had electoral as big as it was. Barone is conservative and not in to making partisan calls. In fact I believe in 2000. He was the one that called the early Gore call a mistake based on who had reported votes


32 posted on 11/02/2012 3:26:51 PM PDT by shoedog
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To: Clintonfatigued; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; no dems; Kaslin; perfect_rovian_storm; ...

ping


33 posted on 11/02/2012 3:30:42 PM PDT by randita
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To: TonyInOhio

Please make it be so


34 posted on 11/02/2012 3:38:50 PM PDT by nuconvert ( Khomeini promised change too // Hail, Chairman O)
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To: TonyInOhio

We want more than a landslide—we want criminal prosecutions followed by death sentences where warranted.


35 posted on 11/02/2012 3:41:14 PM PDT by patriotsblood
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To: TonyInOhio
This is significant. Barone typically holds his cards until the end.
36 posted on 11/02/2012 3:43:36 PM PDT by JIM O
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To: randita

Despite Rasmussen, it’s been a pretty good day. Barone is the best.


37 posted on 11/02/2012 3:45:25 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Dr.Zoidberg

my thoughts exactly...


38 posted on 11/02/2012 3:51:48 PM PDT by georgia peach (georgia peach)
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To: Double Tap

He was pretty much on target with the 2008 predictions too, though unfortunately he was wrong about Norm Coleman getting reelected.

Michael is indeed a walking encyclopedia of politics and elections. Every time I met him he recognized my last name as being the same as a former mayor of my town (and distant relative) who served in the 1950s! So he seems to know about every precinct in the country.

With that in mind I am encouraged by his prediction. He and Dick Morris are about the only ones saying Romney wins by a large margin. I respect Barone’s opinion but I still am skeptical. If it turns out he is right though, he will be one of the most sought after pundits in every future election.


39 posted on 11/02/2012 3:58:21 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: TonyInOhio

Wow, this is pretty encouraging. I think i’ll shut er down
now and not read anything else!!

Went to vote today in akron, but line was out the door
with obamma voters,so i left. It was kind of a downer.

Any one in ohio going to the I-X center on Sunday for the
big Rally??


40 posted on 11/02/2012 4:00:56 PM PDT by americas.best.days...
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To: TNCMAXQ

He probably didn’t know about the felons being allowed to vote or the found ballots in trunks. That should have NEVER happened. Coleman should have fought longer then we might have discovered those felons voting sooner, when it mattered.


41 posted on 11/02/2012 4:01:58 PM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: TNCMAXQ

He probably didn’t know about the felons being allowed to vote or the found ballots in trunks. That should have NEVER happened. Coleman should have fought longer then we might have discovered those felons voting sooner, when it mattered.


42 posted on 11/02/2012 4:02:05 PM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: Gay State Conservative

269 is too close - Obummer could bribe/blackmail a Romney elector


43 posted on 11/02/2012 4:05:22 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Mase

Megyn Kelly had him on her show either Wednesday or Thursday and said, “see you on Tuesday.” She is having her regular 1-3 show and will host election coverage. I don’t know whether she was referring to her own show or election coverage but I guess there’s a 50-50 chance she will be seeing him when she hosts election coverage.


44 posted on 11/02/2012 4:07:10 PM PDT by HateBill (Too productive for Obama's America)
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To: TonyInOhio

The difference between Republicans and Democrats is that Republicans live in the real world - we face reality, even when it’s harsh. In 2008, we didn’t see these predictions...Republicans knew Obama would win and they didn’t try to hide that fact - they just called it like they saw it.

In 2012, the opposite is happening. Barone and Rove, as well as many other respected pundits are calling it for Romney. Liberals are affirming that Obama will win - but I expect that. No matter how bad it looks, liberals never face reality and will maintain that Obama is winning until about 11pm on November 6th when Mitt and Paul reach 270. Actually they probably won’t admit it even then.

Bottom line: These pundits know their stuff. They aren’t basing it on some fatally flawed monte carlo simulator that I could have built in 10th grade (read: Nate Silver) - they are basing it on years of field experience. I trust them.


45 posted on 11/02/2012 4:07:21 PM PDT by IsaacDian
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To: TNCMAXQ
though unfortunately he was wrong about Norm Coleman getting reelected.

No he was right, but Frankin, Rats, MSM and unfortunately Coleman himself let Frankin steal it in plain sight.
Coleman really won, but Barone didn't consider Rats being crooked, that was his only fault on his prediction.

46 posted on 11/02/2012 4:07:43 PM PDT by The Cajun (Sarah Palin, Mark Levin......Nuff said.)
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To: patriotsblood

“we want criminal prosecutions followed by death sentences where warranted.”

It’ll never happen. Obama, et al., will skate, no matter who wins on Tuesday.


47 posted on 11/02/2012 4:07:49 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: patriotsblood

Froth at the mouth much???


48 posted on 11/02/2012 4:08:02 PM PDT by karnage
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To: Double Tap

Barone pretty much predicted Obama at 353 electoral votes (see final paragraph). He just didn’t come right out and say it was his prediction, probably so as to not deflate everyone.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/11/03/optimistic-election-night-scenarios-for-barack-obama-and-john-mccain


49 posted on 11/02/2012 4:08:05 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: InterceptPoint

Barone is an astonishing source of detailed data. He can name the preceincts (not the region or state or city, the precincts) in every state and their voting history. When the obama fraud is played this time, I would hope that Barone will nail the bastards based upon his detailed knowledge of voting trends at precinct levels. ... But then I was counting on Breitbart to continue exposing the little bastard commie degenrate rug-addled barry and we see what happened there.


50 posted on 11/02/2012 4:13:02 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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