Skip to comments.Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!)
Posted on 11/02/2012 2:34:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
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I agree with Michael Barone.
He knows American politics far better than any one alive and I respect his judgment.
I think its a good call. Romney won’t win more than 322 electoral votes max. He can afford to lose a few states and still win the presidency.
What kind of prediction record does Barone have? Just curious.
If I wanted to hear from anyone predicting a Romney victory it would be him.
Keep praying and VOTE!
That is what I was thinking. He is a walking talking voting by precinct all over the USA genius. I’m buying be a bottle of wine for election night. To celebrate. & hopefully starting early. All these threads and polls today have me a little uptight so I’ll need that wine by Tuesday.
This is big time good news! Barone is the most respected in the business when it comes to analyzing this thing all the way down to the CD. Someone said one time that you can ask him about virtually any CD and he can talk for hours about its makeup, its history, touchpoint issues, demographics, etc. He knows US elections like the back of his hand.
Barone has to be pretty confident, normally holds his cards closer to his vest than this, good sign.
Barone can analyse an election down to a block-by-block basis (almost). He must see big stuff for Romney to predict this 4 days out.
Confirming your feel for a Mitt win. You know your stuff and I trust your read more than the pollsters who ask for money and then call it too close to call in the end.
I’m going to be cruising on the Disney Wonder. The only TV channels they get for news are ABC and CNN. I’m pretty nervous, but reading this article may keep me from jumping overboard.
How do you post more than 300 words????
I now feel about 99% better. Barone’s one of the very few pundits who aren’t named Rush Limbaugh I respect.
I’ve been thinking 322, but Barone has a point about the casino turnout machine, so I might be wrong on Nevada.
Barone is brilliant, but what was his prediction in 2008?
Karl Rove was almost on the money in ‘08 and predicted Romney, albeit by a smaller margin than Barone is saying.
The most important fact that I take away from Barone is that less and less voters answer their phones to participate in polls. With caller ID most screen their incoming calls. Personally, I have been not answered numerous calls from IPSOS, Survey USA and various front groups. Michael feels that pollsters are very worried about future techniques they can use to keep their profession viable and cost effective.
Michigan a stretch for sure, but with a declining Detroit population and low turnout....
The surprise could be Nevada based on Mormon turnout. I just don't know if the population in the rural areas is enough to overcome the Union thugs in Clark County.
Final spiking of the football would be one electoral vote in Maine.....