Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: SAT: 11/03: R:48 O:48 Obama -8% : THREE Days Left!
Posted on 11/03/2012 6:36:26 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Saturday, November 03, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. See daily tracking history.
Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they will vote for Romney, while 45% are sure they will vote for the president.
For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Just thought about that a few minutes ago. If Christie is smart, come out blasting FEMA. In fact, I am giving it a 50/50 chance that he does.
I was prepared so I am really not angry . You miss my point. It is the victim class that is angry. The media is addicted to reporting on the victim class and will do so this time. In addition, the media’s rule is that “if it bleeds it leads” and it is starting to bleed (metaphorically speaking). I have already seen it being reported on the local news.
According to what is on his site the final number will be released on Monday but ONLY after careful examination of the results to determine their validity as it applies to the standards of the Gallup Organization.
The MSM are acting as if Mitt Romney does not exist.
Obama won’t have positive headlines on drive time radio this Monday and Tuesday as he did last week. AP may be able to bury how bad things are on Staten Island, but they won’t be able to manufacture “Savior of the World” headlines.
BTW, I would add that the early numbers from Ohio are looking very good for Romney. :)
OTOH, Barone made a manly predition.
Re: It will all come down to turnout
Re: I cant see anyone being swayed at this late hour.
We just may not see that sway until the final results of the election.
KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!
NBA Commissioner David Stern referred to it as “Katrina”.
I think the key thing is that these are randon samples, there is a margin of error, even in the internals, and the small fluctuations in the internals are simply random. It’s going to be close.
[ Just thought about that a few minutes ago. If Christie is smart, come out blasting FEMA. In fact, I am giving it a 50/50 chance that he does. ]
I wouldn’t be on it. Christie is for Christie. His interests are best served if Romney loses. Remember his convention speech that hardly mentioned Romney? Many thought it was his 2016 campaign launch speech. That seems even more obvious after his Obama ass kissing this past week. He went on every freaking talk show that would have him to sing Obama praises. Christie is a weasel.
It`s all about turnout. We have sufficient numbers to turn back the darkside if we want it badly enough to vote in record numbers.
So, conservatives, GOPers, patriots across America.. do we want freedom or Obama?
We've been told how the state polls lag behind the national polls. Well now the state polls are starting to peak and Romney looks great! Perhaps in another week or two Romney's state poll numbers will start to go down to reflect the "lag" but, gosh, the Election is TUESDAY!
Maybe Obama will win the popular and Romney will win the electoral college. Still, I'm convinced Obama will lose!
You have a point, but he also is a Republican. We'll find out soon enough. What all the mayhem in NJ, coming out now against Obama is in his best interests.
Yup, Obama is almost certainly seeing a Sandy bounce. It’s small, but in a race that is nearly tied it’s meaningful. We’ve had our Act of God/October Surprise this time around in hurricane Sandy and it seems to have helped Hussein quite a lot.
No way these numbers are accurate. Odumbo at minus 8??? Impossible.
What happened to the “Daily Swingstate Tracking Poll?” Is it still being published? It was the one that used a seven day rolling average.
Looking at the electoral map, the South is solidly in Romney’s column. It looks like to me that he’ll get more than half of the swing states this election. I don’t think it’s a stretch that he’ll win Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and he’ll probably pick up Colorado. I think Obama’s in big trouble.
A short story from a little country in the far north.
Some ten years ago the citizens in that small country were going to vote in a referendum. Their political leaders as well as the big industralists and the union bosses wanted them to change their old currency for the new shining Euro. For a number of reasons they felt that the people should make that decision themselves (as long as they said YES)!
But after a campaign that lasted almost a year, less than a week before the election day the NO had the lead in almost every poll with something between 10 - 15%.
Then tragedy struck. Four days before the referendum the Minister of Foreign Affairs who had been one of the leding voices for the YES campaign, was stabbed to death when out shopping for clothes to wear during the last TV debate.
The campaign was stalled. The debate was cancelled. Instead the media (including the state run TV) was filled with eulogies for the young woman and her political career, not least the wonderful job she had done during the referendum campaign. On Saturday there was a memorial cermony at one of the main squares in the capital, with the Prime Minister delivering and eulogy to his former FM. This was of course also broadcast.
During this period five national polls were conducted. Three of those showed a very sudden tightening of the race - actually those three, Gallup included, showed that the YES had caught up with the NO and it was a 50/50 race.
The next day was polling day. The result stood clear early that evening. The NO:s had won an overwhelming victory, with the same figures the polls had predicted before the murder.
So, in this small country a catastrophic event did not affect the vote despite what some people told the pollsters.
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON!
The media is doing everything they can to hield Obama from his Katrina. The contrast with how they covered Katrina/Bush vs. Sandy/Obama is astounding. Obama’s situation is even worse because he basically did a photo op and moved on.
For it is the doom of man that he forgets...
- Merlin, from the movie Excalibur
You're right. But Christie gets his mug on TV any time he wants, and we never know what's going to fly out of his yapper. He's surprised us before.
What bugs me about this poll is that Ras has Barry with a 51% approval rating. Frankly, I find that unbelievable.
What bugs me about this poll is that Ras has Barry with a 51% approval rating. Frankly, I find that unbelievable.
Michael Barone also said he wondered how useful polling was going to be now that many many folks no longer have landlines and many many also just don’t answer the phone when they don’t recognize the number. We got rid of our landline a month or so ago. Before that, if I didn’t recognize a caller-ID number as a friend or family, I didn’t answer the phone. Too many telemarketers and other undesirables call. I am no different from most people in this regard. How can anyone get an accurate sample with so many like me? It then comes down to special sauce modeling. I have doubts that any of them are able to detect intensity. Internal campaign polls are the only ones worth it as they are paid for by the campaigns. Look at the two candidates, look at the media, they know which way this is tilting. It is odd to hear an expert like Barone make a pick four days out with such confidence. He knows something that majority of us don’t and is perhaps one of the top ten minds in the USA when it comes to precincts. I side with Barone. Nate Silver is Obama’s Love Monkey.
..Ras has been pretty close, but Barone’s analysis nails it IMO, except maybe NV...
Kinda my thought -- the woman in the shelter who needed diapers that Obama promised he would help probably hasn't gotten much. From what I've seen of FEMA's and Red Cross's effectiveness (appreciating it's a disaster of HUGE magnitude), the woman and her baby are probably covered in poo by now. This will NOT help Zero on Tuesday. We'll see what Christie says on the Sunday talk shows. I think Christie is articulate enough to twist the knife into Obama without sounding hugely partisan.
I think that the best polls are probably close to useless right now, and the worst ones are much less than useless. Given that Reagan won with 50.7% in 1980, I think it will be close to that for Romney.
R/R are drawing huge crowds, O/B not-so-big. Certainly not 2008-big. Morris keeps saying the almost all of the "undecided" voters will break for the challenger. So reading the tea leaves, I still think RR manage to pull it off.
If there was a D+4 from D+2 shift in the Rasmussen screen, then all of the change is explained. That would include the increase in approval.
It makes a bit of sense to change that screen in that blue voters are not being polled with their phones/power offline. That would be the rationale for the change.
Where does it say this D+2 —> D+4 shift did take place?
why are people so addicted to their daily rasmoosen like little baby birds waiting for a worm ?
its sad to watch
I believe the poll is being affected by one outlier day in the rolling average. Once that is put out of the group, the poll will make more sense. Rasmussen tends to be conservative. So tied or ahead for the Republicans should mean a win.
In an election this close is it better for Rasmussen to show Romney winning, pulling away, or to show anyone can win? Plus, don’t forget we typically poll worse during the weekend. I highly doubt this model is using a +1 Rep model....and I truly believe that will be the electorate. On Monday I expect Gallup to show Romney up 50-47 or 51-46. My original guess was that Romney would get 52-53% of the vote and around 300 EVs. The media wants to create an aura of an Obama bounce. Perhaps there is one, but I just can’t imgaine a hurricane - one in which millions are still without food, power, or gas - delivering that magic bullet. Obama is struggling to pull big crowds and that’s usually indicative of a campaign on the ropes.
You are wrong on #1, 2 and 3.
Doctor, patient’s acting up in the recovery room - may have to put her back into ICU. Patient’s chart shows a previous Rasmussen 50-45 Romney lead that was still around 48-45 Romney lead a couple of days ago. Doctor, what’s happening? What’s the prognosis?
That is what I am counting on.
If the Sandy bounce truly is temporary, like I think it is, then Romney should move back into the lead in tomorrow’s polls.
This makes me nervous. Obama has gotten a bit of a hurrican bounce, and the media is sitting on Libya, sans FOX. I will recall in 2008, Obama was leading in polls, and FReepers insisted we not listen to the polls. This is Rasmussen, not a NY Times poll, so I think we have reason to listen to it. That said, I still believe Romney can and probably will win this thing.
Right on. Romney’s event in Ohio last night drew 30,000+! Obama has an Ohio event today with “several thousand.” LOL. And Obama’s event is being held, ironically, in the very same high school gymnasium where the hapless Juan McCain held an event the weekend before the 2008 vote. Who would you rather be today, Romney or Obama?
As I’ve repeated ad nauseum, Obama is the unabashed college campus, Left Wing POTUS that Liberal Baby Boomers and GenXer’s have been waiting all their lives for. If he loses, they WANT to see violence in the streets.
Nate Silver is not a pollster, he’s an odds maker, the overwhelming odds of an Obama victory that he’s giving are an incitement to violence.
Just doing the math.
In this poll Romney has:
The difference with past week polls is the that Romney was at 92-93% among GOP and had a bigger lead among Indies (up to 9-10 points).
That’s a major change.
I’ll say more, these internals are so bad that they don’t event fit with the D39 R36 D25 sample
Romeny = 0.88*36 + 0.09*39 + 0.49*25 = 47.44
Obama = 0.09*36 + 0.89*39 + 0.44*25 = 48.95
In order to come up with a 48 to 48 with such bad internals he should have made the sample more republican than that.
I frankly can’t understand what Rasmussen is doing these days, but there are still 3 days to “adjust”.
Gasoline prices bottomed out in the Heartland. Intentionally.
The ORIGINAL "Broken Glass Republican", me, can not wait to vote on Tuesday.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Carville even said the incumbent does not improve from his final poll numbers. I still feel very confident.
And that may be why we have seen the “ tie” technique being used now.
Makes it look like O is coming back, but in reality it provides cover to let the race be determined by election day turnout, and a simple explanation with a Romney/Ryan win that they won based on a more energized base.
It’s all back on the candidates then, and off the pollsters who reasonably should be expected to make a winner projection
Not going to happen. Christie was on the radio having a press conference and continued his Obama bootlicking. He is doubling down and doesn’t look like he’ll change his position. He just earned himself a one-term legacy.
This looks like fatty’s payback for not getting the VP slot.
No way could Krispy Kreme Christi handle the rigors of a campaign.
For what it’s worth, I follow the social media tracker on the NBC elections site and like the trend. It took a dive for Romney during Sandy but now is back to pre-Sandy levels, with Romney ahead 4 points in declared support via Facebook and Twitter. Furthermore, after some change but not much, the comments online is back to roughly 60-40 negative for Obama and around half/half for Romney.
This may mean any Sandy bump is hopefully fading...it has been rather accurate so far this fall in terms of measuring drops/increases in support, though there were a few weird days with wild swings for no reason.
Romney was pulling 93% of R’s in October. Absolutely no reason for a drop in base support. I think there are some BS artists claiming to be Republicans for Obama. I mean, it only takes a small percentage of liars to move that needle.
Also, remember the LV is full of people who answered in the affirmative to the question “Have you voted yet? Be honest as we have no way of actually checking.You wouldn’t lie about doing your civic duty to a complete stranger, would you?” If you think even 90% of those yeses were honest, well bless your heart.
The pollsters have to, and then they take their answers to the second decimal place, all scientific like. And people act like it’s a done deal. Our omens used to be owls and black cats, now they are polls.
Poll my BUTT!
I’m so sick of BS oversampled dem polls based on 2008 turnout.
Read the other 6 reasons for optimism on Freep.
Plus, 4000 turned out to see 0bummer in Cleveland...2008 he drew 80,000. Why is 0bummer in Cleveland?
Crawl over broken glass??? We will
Here’s a poll: My Cincy library has 500 holds on 130 copies for Vince Flynn’s new book, “The Last Man”...that says something!!!
If you don’t get that, I’m sorry, I can’t explain it. It is anecdotal, just like the fact that not ONE lib has knocked on my door in my Cincinnati city limits democrat stronghold- and, as a small business man who knows money is green and I need libs to pay me just like conservatives, so I have no stickers on my company car or signs in my yard.