Rasmussen Daily: SAT: 11/03: R:48 O:48 Obama -8% : THREE Days Left!

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/03/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

Saturday, November 03, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. See daily tracking history.

Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they will vote for Romney, while 45% are sure they will vote for the president.

For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night.

[Cheerio]

The Daily Job Approval ratings are not going in the right direction

11/3/2012 -8
11/2/2012 -11
10/31/2012 -11
10/31/2012 -11
10/30/2012 -13
10/29/2012 -12
10/28/2012 -12
10/27/2012 -10
10/26/2012 -12
10/25/2012 -12
10/24/2012 -12
10/23/2012 -16
10/22/2012 -16
10/21/2012 -16
10/20/2012 -16

[Revolutionary]

I believe the poll is being affected by one outlier day in the rolling average. Once that is put out of the group, the poll will make more sense. Rasmussen tends to be conservative. So tied or ahead for the Republicans should mean a win.

[xuberalles]

In an election this close is it better for Rasmussen to show Romney winning, pulling away, or to show anyone can win? Plus, don’t forget we typically poll worse during the weekend. I highly doubt this model is using a +1 Rep model....and I truly believe that will be the electorate. On Monday I expect Gallup to show Romney up 50-47 or 51-46. My original guess was that Romney would get 52-53% of the vote and around 300 EVs. The media wants to create an aura of an Obama bounce. Perhaps there is one, but I just can’t imgaine a hurricane - one in which millions are still without food, power, or gas - delivering that magic bullet. Obama is struggling to pull big crowds and that’s usually indicative of a campaign on the ropes.

[Jake8898]

You are wrong on #1, 2 and 3.

[PapaNew]

Doctor, patient’s acting up in the recovery room - may have to put her back into ICU. Patient’s chart shows a previous Rasmussen 50-45 Romney lead that was still around 48-45 Romney lead a couple of days ago. Doctor, what’s happening? What’s the prognosis?

[comebacknewt]

That is what I am counting on.

If the Sandy bounce truly is temporary, like I think it is, then Romney should move back into the lead in tomorrow’s polls.

[Pinkbell]

This makes me nervous. Obama has gotten a bit of a hurrican bounce, and the media is sitting on Libya, sans FOX. I will recall in 2008, Obama was leading in polls, and FReepers insisted we not listen to the polls. This is Rasmussen, not a NY Times poll, so I think we have reason to listen to it. That said, I still believe Romney can and probably will win this thing.

[kevao]

Right on. Romney’s event in Ohio last night drew 30,000+! Obama has an Ohio event today with “several thousand.” LOL. And Obama’s event is being held, ironically, in the very same high school gymnasium where the hapless Juan McCain held an event the weekend before the 2008 vote. Who would you rather be today, Romney or Obama?

[The Fop]

As I’ve repeated ad nauseum, Obama is the unabashed college campus, Left Wing POTUS that Liberal Baby Boomers and GenXer’s have been waiting all their lives for. If he loses, they WANT to see violence in the streets.

Nate Silver is not a pollster, he’s an odds maker, the overwhelming odds of an Obama victory that he’s giving are an incitement to violence.

[Massimo75]

Just doing the math.

In this poll Romney has:
GOP 88%
Dem 9%
Ind 49%

Obama has;
GOP 9%
Dem 89%
Ind 44%

The difference with past week polls is the that Romney was at 92-93% among GOP and had a bigger lead among Indies (up to 9-10 points).
That’s a major change.

I’ll say more, these internals are so bad that they don’t event fit with the D39 R36 D25 sample

Romeny = 0.88*36 + 0.09*39 + 0.49*25 = 47.44
Obama = 0.09*36 + 0.89*39 + 0.44*25 = 48.95

In order to come up with a 48 to 48 with such bad internals he should have made the sample more republican than that.

I frankly can’t understand what Rasmussen is doing these days, but there are still 3 days to “adjust”.

[StAnDeliver]

"Obamugabe at -8¿ Did America suddenly decide it wants Obamacare??"

Gasoline prices bottomed out in the Heartland. Intentionally.

[LonePalm]

Thank you for remembering.

The ORIGINAL "Broken Glass Republican", me, can not wait to vote on Tuesday.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[patriotspride]

Carville even said the incumbent does not improve from his final poll numbers. I still feel very confident.

---

And that may be why we have seen the “ tie” technique being used now.

Makes it look like O is coming back, but in reality it provides cover to let the race be determined by election day turnout, and a simple explanation with a Romney/Ryan win that they won based on a more energized base.

It’s all back on the candidates then, and off the pollsters who reasonably should be expected to make a winner projection

[ConservativeInPA]

I'm a little late today.

[ObozoMustGo2012]

Not going to happen. Christie was on the radio having a press conference and continued his Obama bootlicking. He is doubling down and doesn’t look like he’ll change his position. He just earned himself a one-term legacy.

[Arthurio]

This looks like fatty’s payback for not getting the VP slot.

[txhurl]

No way could Krispy Kreme Christi handle the rigors of a campaign.

[rwfromkansas]

For what it’s worth, I follow the social media tracker on the NBC elections site and like the trend. It took a dive for Romney during Sandy but now is back to pre-Sandy levels, with Romney ahead 4 points in declared support via Facebook and Twitter. Furthermore, after some change but not much, the comments online is back to roughly 60-40 negative for Obama and around half/half for Romney.

This may mean any Sandy bump is hopefully fading...it has been rather accurate so far this fall in terms of measuring drops/increases in support, though there were a few weird days with wild swings for no reason.

[UltraV]

Romney was pulling 93% of R’s in October. Absolutely no reason for a drop in base support. I think there are some BS artists claiming to be Republicans for Obama. I mean, it only takes a small percentage of liars to move that needle.

Also, remember the LV is full of people who answered in the affirmative to the question “Have you voted yet? Be honest as we have no way of actually checking.You wouldn’t lie about doing your civic duty to a complete stranger, would you?” If you think even 90% of those yeses were honest, well bless your heart.
The pollsters have to, and then they take their answers to the second decimal place, all scientific like. And people act like it’s a done deal. Our omens used to be owls and black cats, now they are polls.

[CincyRichieRich]

Poll my BUTT!

I’m so sick of BS oversampled dem polls based on 2008 turnout.

Read the other 6 reasons for optimism on Freep.

Plus, 4000 turned out to see 0bummer in Cleveland...2008 he drew 80,000. Why is 0bummer in Cleveland?

Crawl over broken glass??? We will

Here’s a poll: My Cincy library has 500 holds on 130 copies for Vince Flynn’s new book, “The Last Man”...that says something!!!

If you don’t get that, I’m sorry, I can’t explain it. It is anecdotal, just like the fact that not ONE lib has knocked on my door in my Cincinnati city limits democrat stronghold- and, as a small business man who knows money is green and I need libs to pay me just like conservatives, so I have no stickers on my company car or signs in my yard.