Posted on 11/07/2012 7:02:07 AM PST by MNDude
Ive got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker. The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to normal levels. Didnt happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nations politics. In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In 04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In 04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obamas three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory. I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
“You’re still wrong, MNDude. Read closely: “
Hey, I’m quoting Dick Morris! Not my words!
Exactly...and I stayed up all last night, contemplating that and praying to God that it won’t come to that....
With white births now the minority we’re going to see more and more of this crap.
I totally agree!
This thread is one big bowl full of wrong.
Those ultra-conservatives who didn't vote were foolish, but as I said, here in NY (purely anecdotal), this uber-liberals were not happy with Obama and they either voted for Ron Paul, or stayed home.
Happens here in Tennessee, too. I talked to a young lady last month about registering to vote and she said DHS had registered her.
Don’t feel bad. I was the one who predicted a landslide 54%-45% for Romney based on the internals. But the Indies did not show up in enough numbers or GOP’ers for that matter for Romney. Plus enough Democrats were enthused enough to carry Obama over the finish line. I’m through with predicting elections!
And as bad as Romney was as a candidate, I don’t think a Ronald Reagan if he were alive would have won. The “demographics is destiny” meme would have applied in this election. When you have to rely on 62% or more of the White vote to win an election, that is not a good situation to be in.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.