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Why Republicans should have won the election (and why they didnít)
The Washington Post ^ | November 27, 2012 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 11/28/2012 4:57:47 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

Going into election day 2012, Republicans were very confident that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a 50-50 chance of winning the presidency. It didn’t turn out that way.

Answering the “why” posed by that discrepancy is of critical import for Republicans as they move forward to 2014 and 2016. And, a new piece by Glen Bolger, a GOP pollster and partner at Public Opinion Strategies, explains both why Republicans should have won — and why they didn’t — as succinctly as anything we have read since the election.

Here’s Bolger’s argument in a nutshell (and here’s Austin Powers in a nutshell): If the electorate had looked like 2004, Romney would have won — and perhaps won easily. But, it didn’t. And, it won’t in the future.

To wit:

* Romney won self-described independent voters by 5 points — 50 percent to 45 percent (George W. Bush lost independents to John Kerry by 1 point in 2004.)

* Romney won voters earning between $50,000 and $100,0000 by 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s less than what Bush got in 2004 (he won that group by 12) but they were 28 percent of the electorate in 2012 and just 18 percent electorate in 2004.

* Romney won white voters by 20 points, the largest margin ever for a Republican candidate.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; romney
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To: muawiyah

muawiyah you must be so pleased that that horrible Mormon didn’t win after all. now sit back and enjoy what you and those others here on FR have worked so hard for: 4 more years of the deconstruction of America by that nonmormon: Obama.

God Save Our once Free Republic.


41 posted on 11/28/2012 6:59:06 PM PST by IWONDR
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To: muawiyah

“Much grief will never occur if the voter rolls are clean ~”

you make a lot of sense in these 7 rules.


42 posted on 11/28/2012 7:02:53 PM PST by IWONDR
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To: LibLieSlayer

“...all of this combined allowed the election to be close enough that it allowed the dims to steal the election in about 7 swing states... through ballot stuffing and outright theft of votes.”

so true...so true.


43 posted on 11/28/2012 7:05:42 PM PST by IWONDR
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To: MinorityRepublican

Look what the horse left....apples!


44 posted on 11/28/2012 7:07:13 PM PST by Psycho_Bunny (Thought Puzzle: Describe Islam without using the phrase "mental disorder" more than four times.)
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To: AnonymousConservative

The huge problem we face is that Liberals assiduously demonize Republicans, while Republicans avoid this type of behavior. Demonization is a highly effective means of poisoning (ignorant) moderates against an opposition. If these poorly informed individuals constantly hear one side saying bad things about the other, but nothing similar going back the other way, it affects how they perceive the battle.
Republicans need to start attacking Liberals as cowardly, disloyal, ignorant, naïve, etc, now, and carry it through for four years, or they will be hopeless in 2016.

All of these groups can be harnessed through shame, if the Republicans would have the balls to put up a united front, and be impolite with the idiot Libs who are constantly hammering them......if you want to start an argument with me, you’re gonna have to change the subject...it’s such a target rich environment....tell them the stories, and send them to a website that has the details, with our charges being illustrated with words coming right out of democrat mouths.


45 posted on 11/28/2012 7:15:33 PM PST by stickywillie
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To: MinorityRepublican

Romney’s campaign failed to persuade the voters of the urgency of the times. Failed to remind them what a disaster Obamacare, that 67% of people opposed, is going to be. Failed to show the Middle East disaster leading us to another war. Failed to expose the Marxist. Failed!


46 posted on 11/28/2012 7:15:59 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Revolting cat!

IOW... romney FAILED!

LLS


47 posted on 11/28/2012 7:20:58 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: IWONDR
let's talk about how Utah financial and business interests took out Senator Lugar and once they'd done that they just walked away like they hadn't been involved.

So, three strikes against you ~ messing in another state's primaries, and messing in Virginia's primary, and handing us a loser candidate.

You can do better than that.

At the moment though there's too much at stake in this country to let Utah's financial and business interests fiddle around in Republican politics.

48 posted on 11/28/2012 7:21:31 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: MinorityRepublican

When Hillary runs in ‘16, she’ll get these same racist blocs to vote for her because she is Democrat and will promise them free stuff. They are really voting for Santa Claus.


49 posted on 11/28/2012 7:22:04 PM PST by txrefugee
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To: txrefugee
Santa Claus delivers coal ~ Democrats are against coal.

One last time, use somebody else's demigod in the slogan.

50 posted on 11/28/2012 7:25:20 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: MinorityRepublican

First off the Mourdock and Aikin loss.When it comes to defending a fundamental concept the godless ones have been pretty good at attacking an article of faith and reducing it to ridicule.Then so called conservatives talkers ans the camp followers in the white house press corpse, as well as whores in the media began piling it on and the stampede was on.
The question becomes could should they have handled it ?
Here is a suggested response...

“I happen to believe bla bla bla which will has nothing to do with any legislation that may cross my desk and never will....At least I believe in God ...as a political party God is someone they booed...use the convention clip ...and I don’t believe that an election to office is a license to steal...

ABOUT THE TOP OF THE TICKET LOSS
THE BLAME GOES TO THE PEOPLE WHO RAN THESE CAMPAIGNS
INCLUDING THE CANDIDATES

Expecting voters to know what’s going on and their reliance on MSM is just part of why our great loss. While there are examples of fraud which may close up the gap, the gap is too big to blame the loss on fraud ...Expecting GOP E’s to address media bias or Romney to call Obama a congenital liar or even point out that the fact and figures released by the white house were allways questionable is another Let alone call him a “socialist”..

But the fault lies really in the messaging the Republican campaign came up with. Choking on political correctness parameters or triping over past positions on global warming and Romneycare both of which were bread and butter issues. .Then busy responding to pseudo positions devised by the demo-com party and echoed by their hand maiden camp followers in the media allowing them to set the agenda ..

Romney ran a “Johnny One Note Campaign”. Used a poison dart blow gun when he should have used a cannon loaded with grape shot because he had pleanty of stuff he could fill that cannon barrel with..

They failed to hammer away on what will happen when Obama gets returned; The Obama past due 2013/14 Tax Increases.

Attacks on government policies which affect every “demographic” which I call bread and buttter issues affecting everybodys pocket book WERE NEVER MADE OR JUST MUTTERED ..Particularly this one
The impact of Obama’s gagging energy resources.(a socialist construct never branded as such) with policies requiring reliance on intermittent sources wind and solar and that resulting in massive corruption .,restricted allowance of of drilling, and banning use of coal ,freezes on fracking, and resulting prices doubling on everything.. This was a bread and butter issue which reached into every “demographics” pocketbook including accepting the demo-com definition of hyphenated African-Hispanic -Americans .

The impact of Supreme Court Appointments..Obamabcare taxes need to pay 18,000 new IRS agents and on and on. . Some were very briefly touched most weren’t and Benghazi/ foreign policy was left to languish.

Then there is Obama’s personal extravagance and behavior refusing to visit Nashville after its disaster showing up at New Orleans after Mitt visited it. Even after the Christi thing if that was brought up it would have blunted the impact.

Instead we got a sales pitch on executive ability but not the reason why one should toss the old model and buy his. That print and tv pitch , 20 million new jobs, was given a discrarded dose of skepticism .

In addition Rove who I understand was handling the Charter PAC senate campaign played games. His material never warned voters that IF OBAMA GETS RE-ELECTED AND SENATE CONTROL REMAINED . .. OBAMACARE AND ALL THE TAX INCREASES THAT GO WITH IT WILL NEVER GET REPEALED Let alone tie into or cover the formentioned grape shot which would have perhaps changed that body. I don’t recall any of that material directed toward that fact.

Finally they didn’t believe the polls which turned out were dead on. Even going as far as setting up focus groups which could have looked into what’s going on . Even to the point of going out to local eateries and bars and eavesdrop into conversations and pick up on topics being discussed.(chat rooms twitter too contrived) They would have learned their turnout projections were off and the sence of urgency to get out the vote was diminished by their glowing projections and disbelief never mind ORCA which should have been tested. COMPLACENCY WAS ENCOURAGED BY THE MEDIA AND NOT COUNTER ACTED UPON

Our local small population (-8000) rural blue county GOP had at the outset good and growing attendence at their meetings 50 plus. At the meeting the Thursday before the election only about a dozen people showed up and I knew we were in trouble .

Nuts...This loss is inexcuseable, while I trully don’t believe Mitt Romney would ever continence losing, I’m begining to believe that most GOPE’s really didn’t want to see AHCA, (affordable health care act) otherwise known as ZerO care go ..


51 posted on 11/28/2012 7:26:45 PM PST by mosesdapoet ("A voice crying in the wilderness make streight for the way of the Lord")
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To: muawiyah

” you need to come up with millions of votes ~ i’m seeing thousands ~ doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, but scale must be considered ~ over 160 million voters voted. “

You are WRONG there, of course - as you intended to be.

Check all that information available that I referred to and find that the number of additional votes Romney would need to win is very miniscule - something like 100,000 or so. Very carefully calculated by soros - or not since it seems to have gotten out of hand when they went with those 100% of votes for bronco, or even 140% wow !

Also very obvious Romney strangly *lost* a lot of votes - like those who voted for Romney but the machine *switched* the vote to bronco.

Note ALL THE LINES OF VOTERS on election day - around and around the block even. Great hoardes of voters came out. You can be sure they were not for bronco.


52 posted on 11/28/2012 7:31:21 PM PST by PraiseTheLord (economic civil war ?)
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To: PraiseTheLord
smallest number i saw was that Romney would have needed over 300,000 in some specific states ~ he lost as many in Virginia last March when his agents screwed up our primary.

Unfortunately I"ve seen folks refer to the general election here as having been subject to a great deal of corruption ~ which it wasn't. But the primary was ~ but at a higher level than who got to vote ~ rather all about 'who got to run'

53 posted on 11/28/2012 7:53:37 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: PraiseTheLord
BTW, every 20 years, in the first Presidential election after a census and redistricting there are always lines. There are also places where there were no lines. Lines are news. No lines are not news.

In and of themselves lines don't mean anything other than the failure of the county to properly deploy facilities and staff to support the changes occuring in redistricting by the legislature.

54 posted on 11/28/2012 7:55:44 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: MinorityRepublican; LucyT
I respectfully disagree with that argument.

I believe Romney lost because approximately 10% of the voters almost all included in the core Republican Constituency stayed home because Romney was a Liberal who supported a number of policies with which they did not agree.

55 posted on 11/28/2012 8:00:47 PM PST by David
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To: MinorityRepublican
Going into election day 2012, Republicans were very confident that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a 50-50 chance of winning the presidency. It didn’t turn out that way.

Uh, it did? If he had a 50/50 chance of winning, he had a 50/50 chance of losing. It was just as likely that he would lose, as that he would win. He lost -- which was one of the possible outcomes. So it did "turn out that way".

56 posted on 11/28/2012 8:22:35 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: MinorityRepublican

The only way the Republican Party has a chance is the DemonRATs will do what they are expected to do and take this country into ruin. Then, those who put their faith in the DemonRATs will hear the “We told you so!” and find a new faith.

Those who believe in the Progressive Communists will only learn from the school of hard knocks. They are that hard headed.


57 posted on 11/28/2012 8:40:00 PM PST by jonrick46 (The opium of other people's money.)
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To: MinorityRepublican
The math, according to Bolger, is determinative. There are simply more Democrats than Republicans in the country...so how come people like Rasmussen were telling us that party identification now favored Republicans at a higher percentage than ever before??? - assuming today's "math" actually provides the true picture, which isn't obvious, but assuming it does, it was faulty info like that given by Rasmussen which made it seem Romney couldn't lose......
58 posted on 11/28/2012 9:10:35 PM PST by Intolerant in NJ
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To: a fool in paradise

If journalists don’t investigate it, it didn’t happen right? Maybe they’re busy looking into the 0bama regime’s actions (or lack thereof) before, during and after Benghazi? No wait.. Those racist Republicans out to get a black female or maybe their unwillingness to ‘COMPROMISE’ on the Fiscal Cliff, yeah that’s it!! Who could imagine the next four years being worse than the last four? IT WILL BE. 0bama’s failure to announce ANY plans prior to the election were a warning of how bad it’s going to be.


59 posted on 11/28/2012 9:21:14 PM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America (IMPEACH OBAMA)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Latinos are natural Democrats. They come from socialist countries. Not one in one hundred could tell you anything about free market economics. 65% of immigrants are on the dole.

The answer is to get them out of our country, not turn iut b over to them.


60 posted on 11/28/2012 10:17:19 PM PST by Jack Black ( Whatever is left of American patriotism is now identical with counter-revolution.)
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