Early Look At 2016 GOP Field Shows 5-Way Horse Race (Rubio takes early lead)

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five- way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

"Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate. But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one's presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen."

Republican voters say 59 - 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party's nominee.

"History indicates that Republicans who win the White House tend to be former governors and there are several thinking about running for the White House in 2016," said Brown. "New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is obviously the best known at this point, and Jeb Bush makes the top five, but Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell barely register in this survey."

Among all American voters, the Democratic Party is less disliked than the GOP: the Democrats get a negative 38 - 44 percent favorability, compared to a negative 28 - 52 percent for the Republicans. The Tea Party gets a negative 24 - 43 percent.

Voters also give Republicans in Congress a negative 19 - 71 percent job approval, compared to a negative 34 - 59 percent for the Democrats in Congress.

"The Republican brand is essentially in the toilet these days, but it's worth remembering the Democrats faced a similar situation in the late 1980s and got their house in order and returned to power in short order," said Brown.

The Republican Party can do a better job handling the federal deficit, American voters say 43 - 36 percent, while the Democrats will do a better job 49 - 37 percent on health care, 49 - 28 percent on same-sex marriage, and 42 - 38 percent on immigration. Voters are divided almost evenly on which party can do a better job on the economy, taxes and gun control.

Among the most important issues in deciding how they will vote for Congress, 40 percent of American voters list the economy/jobs, with 20 percent listing the budget or budget deficit, 20 percent listing health care, 9 percent citing gun issues and 8 percent listing taxes.

"President Barack Obama got a post-election bounce to 53 - 40 percent in a December Quinnipiac University poll. Then he dropped into mid-40s splits as the budget battle with Congress took its toll," Brown said. "Now he may be inching up again."

From March 26 - April 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,711 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 712 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

1. If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate in your district?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Republican 35% 82% 2% 33% 40% 32% 43% 5% 24% Democratic 43 3 87 33 38 47 35 78 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 2 - 3 DK/NA 18 14 10 27 18 18 18 16 18 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Republican 36% 47% 53% 47% 46% 41% 61% 44% 45% Democratic 40 33 25 32 32 39 17 33 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 21 17 19 17 19 18 17 20 17 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Republican 31% 37% 30% 39% 42% 26% 39% 39% Democratic 44 42 49 40 40 54 38 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 21 17 18 18 14 16 19 18
TREND: If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate, or for the Democratic candidate in your district? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election", *High also 40% Mar 2011, Feb 2012)
REPUBLICAN.... High Low Apr 03 Jul 11 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 23 Jul 11 Nov 02 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012* 2011 Republican 35 40 39 40 36 40 34 Democratic 43 43 40 38 40 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 18 15 17 18 20 15 19
2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, and Bob McDonnell for whom would you vote?
REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS Tot Men Wom Bush 10% 9% 12% Rubio 19 19 19 Ryan 17 16 17 Walker 2 2 2 Christie 14 17 11 Jindal 3 3 3 Paul 15 18 11 McDonnell 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 18 14 23
3. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If you had to choose, would you prefer that the Republican party nominate for President a candidate with experience as a governor or experience as a United States Senator?
REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS Tot Men Wom Governor 59% 60% 57% Senator 23 21 25 DK/NA 18 19 18
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 49% 8% 89% 44% 42% 56% 40% 90% 65% Disapprove 45 88 8 46 51 39 54 6 28 DK/NA 6 4 3 9 6 5 6 4 7 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Approve 47% 37% 29% 39% 36% 44% 20% 40% 42% Disapprove 50 56 66 56 58 50 75 54 54 DK/NA 4 7 5 4 6 6 5 6 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 52% 48% 55% 46% 48% 61% 46% 46% Disapprove 43 45 39 51 49 34 49 48 DK/NA 4 7 7 3 4 5 5 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 59% Mar 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 03 Mar 07 Feb 08 Dec 06 Jul 11 Jun 04 Oct 06 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2009* 2011 Approve 49 45 46 53 45 59 41 Disapprove 45 46 45 40 49 31 55 DK/NA 6 9 9 8 6 10 4
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 19% 34% 9% 19% 18% 20% 18% 14% 28% Disapprove 71 57 83 70 74 69 73 75 58 DK/NA 10 10 8 11 8 12 9 11 14 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Approve 14% 21% 24% 22% 18% 19% 24% 21% 18% Disapprove 80 69 66 71 74 72 63 71 74 DK/NA 7 10 11 7 8 9 13 8 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 16% 20% 19% 23% 16% 22% 18% 17% Disapprove 78 68 69 70 81 65 74 73 DK/NA 5 12 13 7 3 12 8 10
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? (High also 34% Mar 3, 2011 & Mar 2010, *Low also 19% Nov 2011, Feb 2013)
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 03 Mar 07 Feb 08 Dec 06 Jul 11 Mar 31 Apr 03 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011* 2013** Approve 19 20 19 23 24 34 19 Disapprove 71 71 72 69 68 55 71 DK/NA 10 9 8 8 8 11 10
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 34% 4% 68% 26% 28% 39% 26% 67% 45% Disapprove 59 90 27 65 67 52 67 24 46 DK/NA 7 6 6 9 5 9 7 9 8 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Approve 26% 26% 19% 29% 21% 31% 16% 26% 30% Disapprove 68 67 74 66 74 61 77 68 65 DK/NA 6 7 7 5 5 8 7 6 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 31% 35% 40% 31% 28% 46% 31% 30% Disapprove 62 57 51 64 67 47 63 62 DK/NA 6 7 8 5 4 7 6 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? (*Low also 24% Sep 2011, Oct 2011)
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 03 Mar 07 Feb 08 Dec 06 Jul 11 Mar 4 Nov 23 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2009 2011* Approve 34 32 33 37 29 45 24 Disapprove 59 60 59 54 62 45 69 DK/NA 7 8 9 9 8 10 7
7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 2% 1% 6% 1% 3% 2% 2% 6% 3% Smwht satisfied 28 11 47 26 24 31 22 51 42 Smwht dissatisfied 31 27 31 33 30 31 31 30 29 Very dissatisfied 38 61 15 40 41 35 44 11 25 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 2 - 1 1 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Very satisfied 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Smwht satisfied 26 20 16 20 19 24 14 22 26 Smwht dissatisfied 34 30 30 34 32 31 22 36 24 Very dissatisfied 38 47 51 42 45 44 63 40 48 DK/NA - 1 1 1 2 - - 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Very satisfied 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 30 27 30 28 27 39 25 25 Smwht dissatisfied 34 29 30 28 38 30 34 28 Very dissatisfied 34 40 36 42 32 29 37 44 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Apr 03 Mar 07 Feb 08 Dec 06 Jul 11 Dec 11 Nov 13 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2001 2008 Very satisfied 2 2 3 3 4 21 2 Smwht satisfied 28 23 28 32 25 47 14 Smwht dissatisfied 31 28 28 26 29 19 38 Very dissatisfied 38 46 40 38 41 10 44 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 3 2
8. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 28% 63% 7% 23% 33% 25% 33% 12% 26% Unfavorable 52 23 73 54 51 53 51 53 51 Hvn't hrd enough 17 12 18 19 13 20 13 31 22 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Favorable 27% 36% 42% 33% 36% 30% 47% 34% 37% Unfavorable 63 46 44 48 50 53 36 50 49 Hvn't hrd enough 8 16 12 17 11 15 14 14 12 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 25% 30% 26% 30% 31% 28% 29% 28% Unfavorable 63 47 49 56 59 46 55 54 Hvn't hrd enough 9 20 23 12 7 27 13 14 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 - 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? (*Low also 25% Jul 2009)
FAVORABLE.... High Low Apr 03 Jul 11 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 23 Nov 22 Oct 8 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2010 2009* Favorable 28 33 33 32 31 40 25 Unfavorable 52 50 49 53 54 45 53 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 16 12 13 13 18 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
9. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 38% 6% 73% 31% 33% 42% 33% 63% 39% Unfavorable 44 81 10 47 52 38 52 12 33 Hvn't hrd enough 15 12 15 17 12 17 12 22 24 REFUSED 3 1 2 5 3 3 3 3 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Favorable 41% 29% 24% 31% 29% 37% 17% 32% 31% Unfavorable 49 54 63 53 58 47 68 53 56 Hvn't hrd enough 7 14 10 13 11 13 11 12 10 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 46% 34% 38% 41% 40% 45% 35% 36% Unfavorable 44 45 37 50 51 31 48 49 Hvn't hrd enough 6 18 23 6 6 22 13 12 REFUSED 4 3 3 3 3 1 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 03 Jul 11 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 23 Nov 12 Apr 21 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2008 2010 Favorable 38 37 37 37 35 55 32 Unfavorable 44 50 46 49 51 35 52 Hvn't hrd enough 15 11 15 11 11 6 12 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 3 4 3
10. Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 24% 44% 7% 22% 29% 19% 27% 7% 24% Unfavorable 43 18 64 44 43 43 42 52 32 Hvn't hrd enough 32 35 28 33 27 36 30 40 43 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Favorable 25% 27% 35% 26% 30% 23% 44% 25% 29% Unfavorable 59 34 33 39 42 42 24 42 41 Hvn't hrd enough 14 37 31 33 26 33 30 32 29 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 23% 24% 21% 25% 25% 20% 25% 25% Unfavorable 60 35 36 49 55 38 45 44 Hvn't hrd enough 16 39 41 25 19 41 29 28 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 03 Nov 23 Nov 03 Sep 01 Nov 17 Nov 17 Apr 03 2013 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2013 Favorable 24 29 31 29 34 34 24 Unfavorable 43 42 45 42 38 38 43 Hvn't hrd enough 32 28 24 29 26 26 32 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 1 2
11. Do you think the Democratic party cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes 53% 24% 86% 47% 48% 59% 47% 82% 65% No 44 74 13 49 50 38 50 15 31 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 2 3 3 3 5 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Yes 56% 43% 40% 49% 42% 52% 32% 49% 46% No 42 54 58 47 56 45 64 49 52 DK/NA 2 3 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 59% 51% 56% 51% 57% 66% 51% 48% No 39 46 41 46 42 33 46 48 DK/NA 2 4 3 2 2 1 2 4
12. Do you think the Republican party cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes 37% 73% 11% 35% 40% 35% 43% 16% 32% No 59 24 86 60 57 60 54 78 61 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 3 5 3 7 7 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Yes 44% 43% 51% 47% 45% 41% 55% 45% 43% No 54 54 45 50 53 55 43 51 54 DK/NA 2 4 4 3 2 3 2 4 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 41% 36% 31% 40% 50% 37% 40% 36% No 58 59 65 58 47 60 57 59 DK/NA 1 5 4 2 3 3 3 5
13a. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for Congress? COMBINED WITH: 13b. And what is the next most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for Congress? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
Tot Economy total 40% Economy 24 Jobs/Unemployment 14 Cost of living 1 Poverty 1 Budget total 20% Budget/Deficit 16 Budget (spending) 4 Healthcare total 20% Healthcare(general) 15 Healthcare(ObamaCare-drop) 2 Medicare 3 Gun Issues 9% Taxes total 8% Taxes(general) 7 Taxes(other/specific) 1 Education total 7% Education(general) 6 Education(other/specific) 1 Constitution/Rights total 5% Civil liberties/Equal rights 3 Constitution 2 Immigration 5 Foreign affairs 3 Gay issues/Gay marriage 3 Abortion/Contraception 2 Environment 2 Military Issues/Benefits 2 Social security 2 Terrorism/National security 2 War 2 Economic Inequality 1 Elderly issues 1 Entitlements 1 Government too big 1 Gas prices 1 Moral issues 1 Middle class 1 Women's issues 1 Social Issues(general) 1 Social services(general) 1 Bipartisan/Willing to compromise 4 Party/Political Philosophy 3 Cares about the people/The country 3 Honesty/Integrity/Keeps promises 2 Gets things done 1 Experience/Record 1 New/Not political insider 1 Other 10 DK/NA 10

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