Skip to comments.Quinnipiac: Shutdown Hurt Virginia, But Not Republican In Gov Race (46%-39%-10%)
Posted on 10/23/2013 8:34:44 AM PDT by Maelstorm
While 47 percent of Virginia likely voters say the government shutdown hurt the Old Dominion "a great deal," it apparently has no impact on the governor's race, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli 46 - 39 percent, with 10 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to the results of an October 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 47 - 39 percent, with Sarvis at 8 percent.
In today's survey, McAuliffe leads 92 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 2 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 81 - 6 among Republicans, with 11 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are divided 39 - 39 percent, with 14 percent for Sarvis.
Women back the Democrat 49 - 35 percent, with 10 percent for Sarvis. Men are divided with 44 percent for Cuccinelli, 42 percent for McAuliffe and 10 percent for Sarvis.
Only 4 percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided and 7 percent say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by Nov. 5.
The federal government shutdown hurt Virginia "a great deal," 47 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say it hurt "somewhat." The shutdown helped, 3 percent say, while 17 percent say it had "no real effect."
Voters say 45 - 35 percent that McAuliffe's position on the shutdown is closer to their own position than Cuccinelli's.
"Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads in the race to be Virginia's next governor, but the double-digit presence of Libertarian Robert Sarvis on the ballot creates a major uncertainty," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute.
"The big question about Sarvis is whether his voters will stick with him to the end, or wind up voting for McAuliffe or Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli," Brown added.
"Generally over the past decades, especially in southern states like Virginia, Republicans win when they have strong party allegiance among their base. One reason McAuliffe is ahead is that he wins 92 percent of Democrats while Cuccinelli has only 81 percent of Republicans. If Cuccinelli can't bring more Republicans home, he is likely to be toast."
By a 58 - 36 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of this year's race for governor, with 34 percent saying "strongly unfavorable."
Voters don't think much of the candidates, either, giving McAuliffe a negative 39 - 43 percent favorability while Cuccinelli gets a negative 38 - 52 percent score. For Sarvis, 78 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.
A total of 92 percent of Virginia likely voters say honesty is "extremely important" or "very important," but they don't think either of the two leading candidates is a pillar of honesty: McAuliffe is honest and trustworthy, 40 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say he is not. Cuccinelli does no better as 43 percent say he is honest and 46 percent say he is not.
Voters split 42 - 41 percent on who would do a better job handling ethics in government.
Cuccinelli does not understand their problems, voters say 53 - 39 percent, compared to 46 percent who say McAuliffe understands while 43 percent say he does not.
Cuccinelli has the right experience to be governor, voters say 64 - 30 percent, compared to McAuliffe's 49 - 40 percent experience rating.
"In general voters think McAuliffe is better able to understand their problems and Cuccinelli has the right experience to be governor," said Brown. "They overwhelmingly cite honesty and trustworthiness as the characteristics they most want in a governor, and on that scale, the two are virtually even."
From October 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,085 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.
So you have 10% of folks out there who say they are going to vote Libertarian. I suspect that number to drop dramatically in the next two weeks.
This is a winnable race. Republicans need to get their base out for Cuccinelli, and Libertarians need to come home.
I dont think the shut-down will hurt us in the mid-terms. The polls are showing we got beat up over it, however the special election held last week in NJ yesterday was promising. Sure the D won, it is NJ after all. But they won by only 11 points over a hard core tea party candidate. This after weeks and weeks of the media bashing conservatives and the tea party. 11 points seems like a lot but is in line with the way NJ usually votes. In previous senate elections over the years the Ds have won by: 19 in 2012, 9 in 2006 and 10 in 2002. That leads me to believe that conservatives and the tea party will be strong in the coming elections, even with the biased media. I pray I am right!!!!
Yes exactly. Plus there are still 11% that are either undecided or say they could change their vote. Cuccinelli for some reason is having some trouble getting the maximum number of GOP. I think its related to Bill Bolling. I’m going to see if I can convince Bill to do the right thing. I don’t know him well personally but I do have a direct line to send him messages.
Republicans are mad at the Republican Party...and for good reason! But Ken is not part of the problem and any conservative who is mad at Ken because of Boehner's cave in are barking up the wrong tree. I hope these folks come around.
Sarvis is a stalking horse for Dermocrats.
McAuliffe is running an ad where Bolling blasts Cuccinelli's tax plan. That is very damaging. If Bolling has any integrity he will not let these ads continue without him saying something in support of Cuccinelli. His silence is tantamount to a McAuliffe endorsement.
Save your breath on Bolling, he is enjoying watching the inter party fighting. He and his (few big donor) allies are instigating most if it. He dropped out and has been toying with endorsing Tmac. Bolling is not trustworthy.
And, ONCE AGAIN, Republicans demostrate they are the party of “STUPID”, but its not limited to the leadership.
If McAullif get elected, expect it to BUOY the pretensions of Hillary CLinton to be the next Emperor of the United States.
A lot of that is media driven, but regardless how can conservatives make the case that they understand the problems people face?
HE should have zero credibility as a republican ever again if he endorses that clinton shill. I had no feeling about him one way or the other, prior to this, but the way he handled this race and his failure to endorse cuccinelli has me disliking him intensely.
The idea that terry the PUNK could be Governor of ANYWHERE is LAUGHABLE!!!! I thought Virginians were supposed to be so SMART!! HAHAHAHAHAHHAH...The PUNK as GOVERNOR....HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA....actually sad.
It’s not called the STUPID PARTY for nothing!! We MUST be PURISTS,doncha know.
I wrote him a letter anyway. He can ignore it or not.
VA has gone blue and there is no stopping it outside of spitting the state again. A lot of government workers live off of I95 north of spotsvania.
Good. He needs to hear from conservative Virginians.
The RATS will win with their fraudulent vote getting while the Grand Old Party plays by the book.
You are correct...after years as Lieutenant Governor, Bolling thought the nomination was his by acclamation. But Cuccinelli out-maneuvered him and won the nod. So, Bolling is content to sit on the sidelines and snipe at the GOP nominee.
His claim about Cuccinelli’s fiscal proposals blowing a $1.4 billion hole in the state budget was made in an interview with a radio station I’ve never heard of, but naturally, the Dim op-research team found it. Naturally, the MSM in the Old Dominion has never bothered to ask Bolling about McAuliffe’s budgetary proposals and their impact on the state.
If Virginia residents want to see their taxes begin to look like Maryland, put the Clinton’s favorite fund-raiser in office. Put another way: the Republican who wins the governor’s race in 2017 will have an even bigger fiscal mess that Bob McDonnell inherited from Tim Kaine.
What about that ex-spouse of the late Elizabeth Taylor? Is he for McAuliffe too?
A LOT better than Ras numbers but Ras ran that poll on a Sunday only which automatically deflates GOP numbers.
So the Rasmussen poll was pure BULLS8IT!! Those lying, filthy shills.
Bolling is a piece of crap
Retired Senator John Warner so far has been a gentleman.
I’m hoping and praying for you guys.... Lord please let Ken capture the Libertarians... please intervene.
I suspected that immediately but it probably had something to do with the polling being conducted on a Sunday. Then again I’ve caught Rasmussen fudging numbers before. I used to have access to the internals and in one race I was following that had screwed up the GOP numbers and they ended up fixing them.
Thanks! We need prayers and any spare change. :-)
Just had a knee replacement but sent Ken moola this morning...
Hope he uses it wisely to stomp on the weasel...
Wake up, VA!!!
You are wrong. We can win in Virginia. McDonnell won with 60% of the vote. GW Bush won it twice. The state hasn’t changed that much. What hurts is the way GOP campaigns state wide and the way Democrats campaign by dumping tons of outside dollars. Republicans control the vast majority of House seats in Virginia. Dems have 3 to GOP with 8. We don’t need to be defeatist. The GOP is still very strong in Virginia. What is hurting Cuccinelli is that he’s not getting the level of outside help that McAuliffe is. Its not that Virginia is blue its that the Democrats have the money advantage.
Thanks! I’m going to send another donation today and I’m going out door to door for him.
Right, and will black voters come out and support a rich, white, smarmy, sh*t bird of a lib dim? It will be interesting to see....
Guns— Guns— the Second Amendment. McA is a gun banner, as well as a crook.
This needs to be shouted everywhere.
NRA— where are you? GOA- where are you?
Especially in Virginia. What is the record for a Libertarian candidate in Virginia?
There are some government workers who think the government is too big.
The NRA is running ads in the state but even so McAuliffe has far more third party help. Its a disgrace.