Posted on 04/22/2014 10:29:44 AM PDT by blam
Get Ready For One Of The Worst El Niños Ever
Eric Holthaus
April 22, 2014, 11:52 AM
With apologies to Game of Thrones fans, there’s a new climate menace on the prowl: El Niño is coming.
New data released late last week added to the mounting evidence.
To be declared an official El Niño, surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean must warm by half a degree Celsius averaged over three months and maintain that level for five consecutive three-month periods. That’s an arbitrary definition, sure, but it gives us the ability to crunch the numbers on weather patterns that tend to associate with El Niños on a global scale.
Statistically, this time of year has the least predictability at any time all year. But peering below the ocean’s surface, water temperatures are already off-the-charts-hot. If that warm water makes it to the surface, the planet could be in line for one of the most intense El Niños ever recorded.
That would be enough to shift weather patterns worldwide and make the next couple of years among the hottest we’ve ever known. Earlier this month I wrote that taking into account current forecasts, El Niño could be the biggest global weather story of 2014. The new data shows that forecast is still on track. And that means El Niño could officially begin in a matter of weeks.
Recently people have been tweeting me questions like: “Will El Niño destroy my family’s avocado plantation in Sweden?” or “Will El Niño finally banish the Eye of Sauron from the drought-stricken Mordor formerly known as Sacramento?”
While the answer to both of those questions is a qualified no, there are some parts of the world that have a relatively predictable weather signal when El Niño rolls around.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The whole "Erf's temp" meme is ill defined - land surface temps? Total heat in the oceans? total heat in the Atmosphere? Cloud cover? Top of the atmosphere temps?
Lots of babble, but El Nino years are rarely hot. They are known for increased precipitation, which is always good news for skiers, and bad news for mountain climbers.
California needs a good el nino to fill some reservoirs.
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After this past frigid "Polar Vortex," I'll take it.
Last year in Central NH it rained through July, similar to the 1311 famine, the year before similar.
This year seems to be normal, the snow has melted the weather is warming, the ticks are out, my plants are reaching for the sun,
Hansen himself claimed the El Nino in 2012 would be the greatest in history. It did not even beat the El Nino of 2009/2010.
Re: “But peering below the ocean’s surface, water temperatures are already off-the-charts-hot.”
I wish the author had provided data on that claim.
The Climate Nazis now claim that the reason Earth has experienced a 15 year “pause” in warming is because all that heat is “hiding” in the deep ocean.
I’d like to know if his claim about a “hot” Pacific Ocean is just more propaganda, or if it’s based on actual measurements.
The sport fishing fleet in San Diego is looking forward to it. El Nin~o brings tuna. Lots of Albacore on the way.
Bigger than the Polar Vortex of 2013-2014?</sarc>
Gee!I guess Joe Bastard was right afterall.
The author of the Business Insider article, Eric Holthaus, is a complete global warming/climate change/global climate disruption coolaid drinker. Check out his blog for more samples of the drivel he spews ...
http://qz.com/163636/how-global-warming-can-make-cold-snaps-even-worse/
In that case I'm going to go ahead and plant rhubarb this summer. A friend of mine said that it doesn't do well in heat, but I believe we are going to have another cool wet summer.
"Battened"?
"BATTENED" ?
Two gallons of pancake batter, wasted.
Who died in NH in the 1311 famine?
The proper way to state what the AGW zealots are claiming - The cold point volume of the deep oceans is shrinking.
My 2cents anyway.
Like 5 million degrees hot?
/algore
Hang around the GGG posts, might expand your horizon.
“five consecutive three month periods”
Wouldn’t it be easier to say: 15 months? What am I missing
Good, maybe the ice will be gone from Lake Superior before it starts to freeze again in November.
Enlighten me. New Hampshire did not exist in 1311. And I assume NH was New Hampshire. But I could be wrong.
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