Ebola Kills 2,288, Nearly Half in Past 21 Days

News24 ^ | sept 9, 2014

[Covenantor]

Ebola Kills 2,288, Nearly Half in Past 21 Days

Geneva - The Ebola epidemic in west Africa has claimed 2,288 lives, the World Health Organisation said on Tuesday, stressing that nearly half had died in less than a month.

As of 6 September 2,288 people had died in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Libera out of 4,269 cases, the UN's health agency said, pointing out that 47% of the deaths and 49% of the cases had come in the prior 21 days.

Another eight people have died in Nigeria out of 21 cases, while one case of Ebola has been confirmed in Senegal, WHO said.

[Covenantor]

Is it really getting worse, or are they counting better?

It really is getting worse and WHO's tally is strongly suspected of being understated.

See sten's post:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3202246/posts?page=34#34

[Shelayne]

Thanks for the ping. I haven’t looked at the data, yet, but read this does NOT include Liberia. Is that right?? The graph must be shooting straight up like a rocket!

Lord, have mercy!

[scouter]

Thanks, Black Agnes.

I'm not an epidemiologist, although I have been applying computers professionally to medicine and medical data for 30 years. So these comments, while not tremendously authoritative, are not crazy, either. Take them for what you think they're worth.

If you take the number of cases on August 6 and raise it to the 1.003924 power, you get exactly the number of cases on September 6. Using that exponent, and projecting out to the future, we would have:

Date	Cases	Deaths
9/13/14	5,402	3,628
10/6/14	11,492	7,718
11/6/14	31,792	21,352
12/6/14	85,106	57,158
1/6/15	235,432	158,119
2/6/15	651,282	437,409
3/6/15	1,632,704	1,096,545
4/6/15	4,516,594	3,033,402
5/6/15	12,090,930	8,120,423
6/6/15	33,447,469	22,463,747
7/6/15	89,538,923	60,135,485
8/6/15	247,693,969	166,354,435
9/6/15	685,202,594	460,190,818

Calculating the last 60 days, the exponent is 1.0038683.

Calclulating the last 90 days, the exponent is 1.00393.

So it seems like the exponent, over the last 90 days, has remained fairly constant, somewhere around 1.0039. Do your own projections.

If you calculate from the first day in the chart, the exponent is 1.006721, giving drastically higher numbers.

I would guess, though, that at some point there will be an epidemiological equivalent to the "law of diminishing returns", and the exponent will likely fall somewhat. How much? I don't know.

[mdmathis6]

October surprise before the elections? Obama and Dem’s start getting blamed for letting the disease into the country? Obama doubles down by attempting martial law to shut the elections down(for fear of spreading contagion by multiple persons handling the levers at the voting booths or even counting paper ballots)? Nahhhhh they wouldn’t even try it...would they?(look for trial balloons being floated via the media however)

[Covenantor]

No, it’s up to date 6-sept-14 including Liberia. Check the total on the spreadsheet with WHO report. But...Liberia is falling apart,so the accuracy is a bit suspect. Too many cases trying to find a clinic spot. It sounds like the Liberians are running helter-skelter seeking relief, not easy to find, much less count.

[Shelayne]

This is what I was referring to.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-10/ebola-death-toll-rises-/5732250

“The WHO said it had recorded 4,293 cases in five West African countries as of September 6.

It still did not have new figures for Liberia, the worst-affected country, suggesting the true toll is already much higher.”

[Dartman]

Nothing personal, but why would anyone voluntarily go to a 3rd world sh*thole like that?

[mdmathis6]

Your numbers are sobering...though I expect extreme measures to be undertaken in more the developed world to blunt the spread...even if your numbers are off by 90 per cent it would still be a horrible plague. If the disease gets loose in this country, you know where the disease will concentrate and then threaten to spread out...communities that practice sexual perversions and IV drug abuses...any place where the sharing of body fluids is as common as breathing.

Sex workers would be shunned. Many folks will self isolate and worry about lost jobs later on. It will safer to be in monogamous relationships. Media will proclaim that a new moral piety, enforced by plague realities, is being practiced and (temporarily at least for the sake of the emergency) endorsed by groups traditionally opposed to church doctrinal teachings.

If the disease gets loose in this country, folks will look at the politicians who were in charge of policies that may have facilitated this spread into our nation. Taxes and liberal policies are one thing, but a populace faced with death may not care so much about the perceived political injustices certain groups had complained about when Aids became a public health head-ache. The demand will be for severe quarantines and severe sanctioning of the behaviors that facilitate Ebola’s spread!

460 million deaths in the Dark Ages due to the black plague would have been an extinction level event for humans....today that would be nearly 5 percent of the worlds population. If confined mostly to Africa, then some whole countries would have been wiped out. Some NWO advocates and Pete Singer types will be jubilant with the population...”corrections”

[Shelayne]

Never mind. I saw the PDF and the footnote about Liberia. The Liberia numbers are as of September 5, instead of Sept 6 as the other countries, so they expect the numbers are actually larger.

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/132834/1/roadmapupdate8sept14_eng.pdf

[Gay State Conservative]

Have you ever seen a giraffe drinking at a watering hole? I have,about 30 years ago on the Serengeti.My bucket list (I'm gettin’ old) includes one last visit to see it again.

[ClearCase_guy]

Media will proclaim that a new moral piety

One would hope so.

But, during the Black Death in Europe, a lot of people partied hard -- what did it matter?? -- death was coming soon enough, so you might as well have fun, fun, fun!

[mdmathis6]

I suppose I should have included a /s tag or some sort of “tongue in cheek” comment. There are some who would rather die and take society with them as opposed to giving up a utopian PC meme they have lived by all of their adult lives. A modern viral plague takes both the pious and the impertinent to the place where God will judge all. There will always be tares with wheat...but unless there is an intervening harvest, both suffer when the locusts come!

[mdmathis6]

“But, during the Black Death in Europe, a lot of people partied hard — what did it matter”

Science describes the mechanics of the plague spread, the Bible describes the judgments that fall upon the libertines who disregard God’s grace.

Seeing the world wide fall into sin and sexual depravity enmass, is kind of like watching how the weather systems began converging 10 days before Hurricane Sandra...you had a sickening feeling and you could follow the paths of the fronts and the jet streams...like watching a car crash and you can’t even stop it...you just want the crash to hurry up and happen so you can begin cleaning up the aftermath! You even have guilt feelings about wanting the crash to hurry up and happen, but you also knew of a dead certainty that it was going to happen, despite your feelings on the matter!

There are some dirty secrets not being widely told about Ebola such as how some folks may not be as catastrophically sick at first or they may not ever get severe illness at all but they may be shedding virus for a time and not know it. These are the most dangerous carriers who may spread it into sexually libertine populations...and this is how it may get loose into this nation.

[ClearCase_guy]

One of my thoughts is that a jihadi might go to San Francisco and just have a real good time for a few weeks.

It's far more transmissible than AIDS, and no one in the government would ever take steps to limit movement or activities within the homosexual community. It would spread like wildfire.

[exDemMom]

Thanks for sharing... scariest thing I'm heard about Ebola in a while... could this have jumped from 'fruit bat' to mosquito...?

Ebola cannot survive in insects. The only way an insect could transmit is if it landed on someone with Ebola, picked up some on its feet, and landed on an open cut on someone else.

[null and void]

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Black Agnes]

Or landed on their food or drink.

One of the things I remember about Africa was all the flies. They were everywhere. Clouds of them. If there are that many ebola victims walking around in Monrovia there are bound to be puddles of this or that contaminated body fluid lying about. Likely covered with flies of some sort. That then fly off to the market and walk on the veg and fruit there. And buzz around people and walk on them...etc.

Walking, flying fomites!

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

And yes, Ebola’s presence outside of controlled environments will be inevitable in this country.

PING!

[Intolerant in NJ]

Ebola Kills 2,288, Nearly Half in Past 21 Days...Not surprising - very good "Frontline" PBS program on Ebola this week - a few factoids:
Up until recently sanitary conditions in much of the area were atrocious - eg one medical clinic had a total of five syringes to use for injections - they were used repeatedly, without being sterilized between uses - conditions are being improved.
In many villages still aid workers trying to track the infection and provide treatment have to wear plain street clothes because villagers thought they were foreign troops and would even attack them if they showed up in regular protective clothing.
Infected individuals often hide from those trying to help them because they fear going to the hospital, where many go but few return. Those fleeing often head to bordering countries where it will be easier to avoid the authorities.
In some cases the population has been so afraid of what the medicals might do to them that they have attacked and burned hospitals, believing the doctors are really after their blood rather than trying to help them.

With circumstances like these, it's maybe surprising the totals aren't higher by now.....

[PghBaldy]

Thank you. I’ll take a look.