Posted on 11/03/2014 7:59:40 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
Maybe her teleprompter was set to cursive?
D plus 3 sample.
Doesn’t it suggest to you, that if the Register is accurate and Joni’s up 7, that all the polls that have her up only 1 are 5-6 points off on ALL the Republicans’ actual lead?
Quite possibly.
Also this has early voting as plus 15 D. But the Real hard numbers released say plus 2 democrat. We will win this one baring voter fraud. And that’s the stuff wars are made of.
Nate Silver thinks so.
Various Talking heads on Fox News last night also said that the Des Moines poll has a track record for accuracy. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow night.
Was Lefty DM Register poll having Joni Ernst up 8% ginned up to motivate Democrats to get out & vote?
Who contracted the survey or was it 100% funded & administered by the Register? A surrogate of the Dem party, there is no way, given how crucial this race is to the balance of power in Washington DC, that the Register can be trusted to conduct a legitimate unbiased poll.
You also have to look at the polls in the context of how the campaigns are acting.
Particularly right now, as GOTV mechanisms are spun up to drive and track turnout.
Campaigns will have turnout goals for each stage in the voting (early, absentee, election day), with mechanisms to track whether those goals are being met and provide short-turnaound (sometimes even realtime) feedback so the campaigns can try to implement corrective action.
Right now it seems like the Republicans are determined and confident, while the Dems are panicking. The GOP may just be clueless/oblivious (as they were with Romney in 2012), but there’s not a good reason for some of the things the Dems are doing other than they are seeing themselves already falling short of not only their goals but also their minimums.
So I’m cautiously optimistic about tomorrow.
I’m optimistic too. I’m only worried about three US Senate races: (1) KS (2) NH (3) NC.
If I were a Democrat, I would be pooping bricks over the US Senate races in the following states:
1) MT
2) WV
3) SD
4) AK
5) AR
6) LA
7) GA
8) KY
9) CO
10) IA
Yeah, a GOP pickup of 10-13 seats almost guarantees that the Dems can’t gain enough seats back in 2016 to retake the Senate.
The Senate map does favor the Dems in 2016 as the GOP will have to defend twice as many Senate seats that year.
But I am focused on Tuesday. 2016 is light years away in political time. Much will depend on who the presidential candidates are and what coattails they have. I learned long ago to just take one election at a time. A lot can happen in between.
D oversample of 4. Des Moines R oversample 3 Net Ernst ahead by 2.5 to 3...
The issue being that for decades now the Dems have been looking elections ahead and approaching the attainment of political power as a variation on the Long March.
The truth is with the exception of MS (where a message definitely needs to be sent) we need every seat we can get. We can’t, respectfully, just think about taking the Senate, we need to act in a way that allows us to hold it.
I agree.
Every political race is important.
This year focus is on the US Senate.
POTUS not up for election.
Control of the House is not in much doubt this year.
I’m seriously beginning to wish there was just no such thing as public polls.
They serve no good or productive purpose, if you really think about it.
Most of the time they’re just used for propaganda anyway. Some media outfit with an agenda rigs a poll to show the results they’re looking for, then do biased news stories regarding the poll to sway public opinion.
Happens ALL the time.....
I only care what Dick Morris has to say, and then expect the opposite.
Agree entirely.
Anybody who believes what Morris has to say doesn't know Dick.
Maybe the reaction is because you seem to believe that there are people at FR who live in that state who were stupid enough to not go to vote because they saw some poll.
Most of us understand that polls are not the actual election, and that we have to actually go to vote.
What is odd is that your message seems to be that if this new poll had said 7% it would have been FINE for us to not vote.
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