Posted on 11/03/2014 7:59:40 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
Surrounded by Braley campaign posters, she kept calling him "Bailey." If he loses, the long knives will be out for Michelle---and her royal ambitions go down in flames. Obama will be forced to eat boiled , unsalted kale stems for weeks on end.
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.....the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been gathering information concerning polling places, recount provisions and voting rules in 11 of its top battleground states. The Republican National Lawyers Association is training an army of 1,000 lawyers nationwide to tackle potential legal issues on Election Day and beyond.....
In Al Gore's book about the FLA debacle---he whined that Bush's lawyer's were always 10 steps ahead of him when they fought it out in court.
That early Roberts USSC saw through the Democrat ruse---and ordered them to stop the count---thus giving Bush the victory.
>> I knew that the earlier Des Moines Regsiter poll was an outlier
So, left-wing outfit Quinnipiac agrees with you and you think that makes you and them gospel?
I disagree, concern troll.
Anyway, you specifically ASKED for my opinion. So I gave it to you. But you can’t handle the truth!
>> This is the last time today that I am going to warn them about this or other polls that I am privy to.
PRAISE THE LORD!
I hope you mean it.
>> You try to warn people to get out and vote for Ernst and you get hammered like I have.
Maybe that’s because you’re a liar.
NOWHERE in your concern-troll OP did you ONCE suggest Iowans get out and vote for Ernst!
The only poll that matters at this point is the one tommorrow, quit worrying and go vote, it’s all you can really do that will make a difference with 24 hours to go anyway....
No one poll should be taken too seriously.
However, the fact that OVERWHELMING majority of polls taken in this particular race since September show Ernst leading Braley I think is probably an accurate reading.
Further, the Des Moines Register is the largest newspaper in IA and endorsed Braley, so there is no reason to believe that it would put out a skewered poll.
I don’t make predictions anymore, but I would truly be surprised if Joni loses tomorrow night.
Don’t let the negative posts of one or two people stop you from posting what you see fit. You are stronger than that.
SILVER: Yes, we saw some new polls this morning in states like Georgia, Kentucky, that have further good news for the GOP.
Looks, it’s still a close election. You have six or seven or eight races that can go either way. ******But like that poll in Iowa last night, which, as you mentioned, is one of the most reliable polls in the country.******* All these races are being held in purple or red states too. So the bar isn’t that high. The polls are clearer now that the GOP will — will probably win the Senate. We can bet a 73, 74 percent chance right now.
Straight from Silver’s mouth. I can’t wait for tomorrow when all the doom&gloomers drop out/off FR.
The Register poll probably undesampled the illegal alien vote.
I think I’d believe the people who actually live in Iowa over a bunch of academics in Connecticut.
things you will not see in the media today: any mention of Ebola, ISIS, Immigration crimes, Obamacare or for that matter the liar in chief himself. No sense reminding the voters why they should avoid the dems as if they were radioactive.
Same thing that happened after the Wisconsin recall will happen here.
They think they are providing a helpful service by having a daily meltdown here.
Both of the polls have a fairly small sample size approaching 4, so for Ernst the best poll ranges from about 54 down to 48. The tied poll has her ranging from 51 to 43. Likewise, Braley ranges from 48 to 41 and from 51 to 43.
Ernest line goes from 54 down to 43. Her midpoint would be 49. Braley’s line from 51 to 41. His midpoint is 46. This looks like a 2.5 to 3 point race now with Ernst closing in on 50%.
Barring vote fraud, this looks like an Ernst victory.
Public polls serve two purposes, to sell advertising and to advance agendas. Newspaper and network polls are designed to do both, but just before the election they tend to get more serious as their clients will look at results the next time around. Selzer has more credibility than most of the others because they appear to be a more serious organization without much of the above mentioned baggage.
Unfortunately, people pay attention to what they want to hear and dismiss all the rest. That’s why public polls must be treated with caution, for the most part they are just part of the effort to sway the vote.
The demographics on the Quinnipiac poll are interesting. Slight advantage on sampling of Democrats and women, unlikely to represent results tomorrow, but 40% reported that they had already voted.
I think Republicans counting victories too soon is a disaster. I don’t trust the polls and I especially don’t trust the Dem voting machine apparatus. Look at what James O’Keefe has pulled off with a phone camera? Look how Franken won Minnesota with 320 votes? Look how they go absolutely berserk on voter ID, when it is the best way to protect against this?
There is far too much room for nonsense, and I think there will be a lot more Dem votes than currently being counted. Because they are being manufactured without real people behind them.
Quinnipiac nearly always skews towards the Dems. Closer than +7, but still Ernst is ahead.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Ernst (R) | Braley (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/23 - 11/2 | -- | -- | 46.7 | 45.3 | Ernst +1.4 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/28 - 11/2 | 778 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Des Moines Register | 10/28 - 10/31 | 701 LV | 3.7 | 51 | 44 | Ernst +7 |
| FOX News | 10/28 - 10/30 | 911 LV | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | Ernst +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 - 10/30 | 990 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 47 | Ernst +1 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 10/27 - 10/30 | 647 LV | 4.0 | 49 | 47 | Ernst +2 |
| YouGov | 10/25 - 10/31 | 1112 LV | 4.4 | 42 | 43 | Braley +1 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/23 - 10/29 | 1129 LV | 3.3 | 45 | 45 | Tie |
Quinnipiac has been one of the most statistically inaccurate poll of the last five elction cycles.
I’ll take Ernst and spot you 2%. If Ernst doesn’t win by more than 2.000% - a SOLID, beyond recount victory, I win - otherwise, you win.
Let’s make a $500 bet right here on Free Republic for all to see. Real money, real skin in the game.
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