Posted on 11/07/2014 1:12:15 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
In Arizona’s 2nd District, the Republican, retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally, saw her lead over Democratic Rep. Ron Barber diminish after officials counted more ballots Thursday. She leads Barber by a 363-vote margin, with about 17,000 ballots outstanding. That lead shrunk from the 1,293-vote margin McSally had after Election Day.
In California, six races remain uncalled. Each county has their own process to count ballots, and it could be at least a week before winnere are declared.
Republicans lead in two of those contests: •In the Sacramento-based 7th District, former Rep. Doug Ose leads Democratic Rep. Ami Bera by 2,183 votes, with many ballots still outstanding. That lead diminished Thursday, when he had a 3,011-vote lead. Around 40,000 votes remain to be counted.
•Little-known Republican Johnny Tacherra leads Democratic Rep. Jim Costa by 736 votes in the 16th District — a race not on the radar of any party operatives. It’s unclear whether there are enough outstanding votes for Costa to overcome that margin.
Democrats lead in the other four contests: •In the San Diego-based 52nd District, Democratic Rep. Scott Peters retook the lead from Republican Carl DeMaio after mail-in ballots came in Thursday. Peters now leads by 861 votes. That is a big swing from after Election Day, when DeMaio led Peters by a 752-vote margin. More votes are expected to come in Monday.
•In the 9th District, Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney leads Republican Tony Amador by a 2,360-vote margin in another unexpectedly close race.
•Democratic Rep. Michael M. Honda leads Democratic attorney Ro Khanna in the Silicon Valley-based 17th District by more than 4,000 votes — a widening lead giving Khanna a slim path to victory. Honda is slated to make an announcement about the race at 1 p.m. EST.
(Excerpt) Read more at atr.rollcall.com ...
True, but Republicans had a very bad candidate (whom I volunteered for).
Cuomo should be humiliated. He’s had attack ads against Astorino since Spring, in addition to Start NY ads, paid for by NY taxpayers.
I think you meant to say Cuomo must have carried the 25th.
I continue to be blown away by Kakto’s margin of victory in the 24th, according to an article, Maffei carried only Syracuse itself (getting a slightly higher % there than Cuomo did) and it’s adjacent suburb, the town of DeWitt, Kakto took every other town.
I continue to not friggin believe that Mourdock made stupid rape comments AFTER Todd Akin did. Dumbest candidate of 2012, perhaps.
“Gloria Negrette McLeod “
Haha. She saw “permanent minority” writing on the wall and wanted to go local so should matter.
Those are downright sexual numbers in the IN legislature, I’m jealous.
Four fifths majority in the Senate is insane, and it looks like the rat pigs won’t be taking back the House that used to be so hard for us to win.
Wow ...one of the most astounding statistics in history is that almost every close uncalled race trends toward the dems. Amazing isn’t it? /s
She’s not young, either. 73, a freshman and a member of the minority in DC is not an enviable place to be. She’d be in her mid 80s before she’d be in any position of power on a committee. Her successor, Norma Torres, is 24 years younger.
One has to wonder why the hell she ran for Congress in the first place. I guess she just had no clue what she was in for.
Remember, here in TN, ours is higher. 85% of the Senate in January will be GOP, with 5D vs. 28R members. That’s literally about as many as we’ll ever be able to take in that body (with 3 VRA Black Dem districts (2 in Memphis, 1 in Nashville), which, alas, I’m in the latter one, and the other 2 urban White leftist, one in Memphis and one in Nashville, though the latter had an old-school moderate Dem until he decided to retire).
The GOP will have 73 (out of 99) seats in the House, a modest gain of 3 (in the 4th (turncoat ex-Spkr Kent Williams’ seat, he retired); 13th (defeated moonbat White Dem Gloria Johnson in Knoxville district) & 74th (defeated Dem in Clarksville area seat)). There were 4 other seats that the GOP failed to get that it should have (43rd (expansive rural Dem open seat, failed to win by 55 votes ! The occupant, centrist Dem Charles Curtiss nearly lost to the same man. A 3rd candidate, for whom I know nothing about, took 409 votes, which was enough to provide either with a victory); the 50th (a Nashville seat that is about half GOP, an ugly win for the Dem incumbent who took it by 430 votes); the 60th (actually a slightly GOP-leaning seat where a freshman Republican, Jim Gotto, was the sole loss in 2012 was seeking a rematch against liberal Dem Darren Jernigan. What was less than a hundred vote loss was turned into a 1,021-win this time for the Dem, 53.3%-46.7%. The former centrist Dem occupant of the seat endorsed Republican Gotto) and the 69th, also an embarrassing loss and brutal race for a rural area South & West of Nashville, where the incumbent Dem held on by all of sixteen (!) votes).
As of now, unfortunately, the GOP still holds but ONE seat in the House from Davidson County (out of 10), that being the Speaker’s district. The GOP has only held 2 districts at maximum (Gotto’s seat from 2011-13, on the extreme eastern side of Nashville up against heavily GOP Wilson County, and prior to that, 2 decades ago when West Nashville sent the GOP Minority Leader, a district that was merged with now Speaker Beth Harwell’s).
Curiously, my former district, the 53rd (I was moved to the 59th), which is the most racially diverse in the state (1/3rd White, 1/3rd Black, 1/3rd Hispanic), the Dem incumbent, Jason Powell, got a subpar 53.2%, which was virtually identical to what the aforementioned Jernigan got in a GOP-leaning district. He was challenged by an Asian candidate, who got 43%. A 3rd party candidate got the remaining 4%, but she is a Republican who ran Independent (and formerly ran in my district as the GOP nominee in 2010). This was less than what Powell got in 2012 (54.4%).
The GOP didn’t put up a candidate this year against my execrable Dem incumbent (I wrote in the 2012 nominee, a Metro Councilman, Robert Duvall - no relation to the actor).
Curiously, the GOP didn’t run candidates in 3 winnable races held by White Dems. The rural 41st with John Mark Windle. 20-30 years ago, he’d have been the kind of candidate the TN Dems would’ve groomed for statewide office, but he’s now the odd man out surrounded by Republicans. He’d probably be better off switching parties.
Another seat the GOP oddly didn’t contest was the West Nashville 55th seat. This was the one that a Republican partly occupied 20+ years ago. Gary Odom, the former Democrat Majority Leader, held the seat since 1987 and was on course to becoming Speaker (whenever Boss Hogg Naifeh ever decided to quit, which he wouldn’t have until he was feeble). He had been a thorn in Sundquist’s ass (which in hindsight wasn’t necessarily a bad thing - but he was the Dem kneecapper in those days). Odom finally reached the Majority Leader post in 2007. He was present for when Naifeh orchestrated the coronation of Kent Williams as a puppet speaker, although he technically moved to Minority Leader in that 2009 session.
When the Dems failed to win back the House outright in 2010, he was bumped from leadership. In probably the single ugliest Dem primary in TN, he got a challenger from the moonbat left who effectively ran at Odom like he was a Tea Partier. Odom ended up losing renomination. The GOP didn’t even put up an opponent (they didn’t in 2012, either, though a Green party candidate ran). The kook that won unopposed, John Ray Clemmons, should be a top target in 2016.
Also, oddly, the GOP didn’t challenge the Minority Leader, a White Democrat from a rural West TN district (which could conceivably elect a Republican), Craig Fitzhugh. The Dems didn’t hesitate to run one of theirs against Speaker Harwell, who got 37% of the vote.
The big problem I had (and still have) with Spkr. Harwell and the GOP is that they decided not to be ruthless with redistricting in Nashville/Davidson Co. and went easy on some of the incumbents (rather than do unto them as Naifeh did to the GOP for decades). Given that being nice has netted the GOP side absolutely not one seat (remember, Gotto won in 2010 under Dem gerrymandered lines !), it is outrageous that in a county that votes GOP by 40%+ gets 10% of the seats. The GOP should have 4 out of 10, all of the peripheral areas (which coincides with the lone state Senate GOP seat, which is like a doughnut around the county). There’s no excuse next time around.
She apparently ran because the new district drawn (which was still partly Rep. Joe Baca’s) effectively coincided with her State Senate seat (and Baca’s home was in another district), albeit smaller in area (since CA State Senate districts are larger than the Congressional seats). She still had 2 years left on her Senate seat. Figured if she was going to go to DC, this was the only time to go. If I were Joe Baca, having the 13 years of seniority, I’d have been majorly pissed. He lost in the runoff to her.
Of course, it’s funny now. We look at people running for Congress today, and it’s all with an eye to longevity and becoming (hopefully) a Committee Chair in 6 to 12 years. Used to be in the distant past that serving a single term (or two) were the norm, and you’d go back home. Ultimately, her deciding to go back and run for local office (which often also wasn’t unusual in the distant past) turned out to be her sole mistake. I wonder how much of a surprise it was that she lost to Assemblyman Curt Hagman. The retiring incumbent in the San Bernardino Co. Supervisor district, Gary Ovitt, is a Republican. If she had stayed put in the House, she might’ve lasted a few more terms, though obviously she must’ve felt Norma Torres breathing down her neck.
“I think you meant to say Cuomo must have carried the 25th.”
Oops, of course. Astorino carried Monroe County, but not by enough for him to have been able to carry the CD once the GOP exurbs were sloughed off.
I would love to see redistricters combine Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca and Binghampton into an über-Democrat octopus (connected with Democrat Finger Lakes towns such as Auburn; it would leave adjacent CDs comfortably Republican. Stupid urban voters.
BTW, do you have a link to the 2014 election data by town for Upstate NY?
I just checked out the Monroe County towns left out of the NY-25, and they aren’t as strongly GOP as I thought I remembered (heavily GOP Riga, Ogden and Parma are in the NY-25), so Cuomo carried the NY-25 more narrowly than I had assumed.
The NY-25 includes all of Monroe County except for Wheatland, Rush and Mendon in the south and Hamlin and a very small portion of Clarkson in the NW. See http://nationalmap.gov/small_scale/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd113_ny.pdf for a map of the NY-25 and http://www2.census.gov/plmap/pl_blk/st36_NewYork/c36055_Monroe/PB36055_000.pdf for a township map of Monroe County.
In 2004, Romney got 51.61% in Wheatland (2,449 total votes cast), 52.98% in Rush (2,063 votes), 54.82% in Mendon (5,181 votes), and 58.87% in Hamlin (3,798 votes); Romney got 56.56% in Clarkson as a whole, but few of those votes were cast in the NY-25. That gives Romney a tad above 555 in the Monroe towns that are not in the NY-25. Astorino’s vote percentage in Monroe County was around 8.2% higher than Romney’s, so let’s assume that he got 63.5% in the excluded towns. If those towns cast around 4.2% of the county vote, then Astorino probably got a bit under 47% in the NY-25, meaning that Cuomo likely carried the NY-25 by around 1%.
BTW, did you know that Astorino probably carried the Albany-based NY-20 (Tonko’s CD)? Cuomo only carried Albany County by 2,000 votes! (Sure, the Green had a lot to do with that, but still.)
I got the NY-24 town info from this article
Which in turn got it from
“I would love to see redistricters combine Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca and Binghampton into an über-Democrat octopus”
The Supreme Court should appoint you Special Master in charge of all redistricting. :D
“BTW, did you know that Astorino probably carried the Albany-based NY-20 (Tonko’s CD)? Cuomo only carried Albany County by 2,000 votes! (Sure, the Green had a lot to do with that, but still.)”
Wow. Plurality or not, that’s pretty neat.
A shame, Astorino overall got only like 40.6%
Interesting, he ran behind Paladino’s 2010 numbers in the 4 western most counties, I had forgotten Paladino kicked Jr’s *ss in Erie county.
GOP supermaj and poor DJ is still in a rat district.
“As of now, unfortunately, the GOP still holds but ONE seat in the House from Davidson County “
Lame, out of how many seats?
I’m very surprised to hear the GOP didn’t contest so many winnable State house districts and yet still have 73.
BTW, I’ve have never had a GOP candidate for state leg run since I’ve been voting (and probably long before that).
Important IL result I forgot to mention, Southern IL Supreme Court Justice Lloyd Karmeier (elected in 2004 in formerly rat seat) narrowly got the 60% necessary for retention, beating back a big money effort by scumsucking lawyers to defeat him.
If only still had the GOP seat taken by rat Thomas Kilbride in 2000 we’d have a majority that could have struck down the rat gerrymanders.
“If only still had the GOP seat taken by rat Thomas Kilbride in 2000 we’d have a majority that could have struck down the rat gerrymanders.”
Realpolitik? Republicans in this state need to start doing things the CHICAGO WAY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPZ6eaL3S2E
“Remember, only Democrat judges decide cases based on what they would have done had they been in the legislature instead of what the law says.”
Yeah, rats would have stuck down the 1992 GOP maps, but one of the 3 Cook Justices voted to uphold them. The late liberal Sun Times political columnist Steve Neal described that guy as a GOP plant or something,
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