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Blizzard 2015:How did the forecasts get it so wrong? (Gruber Modeling?)
CBS News ^ | 01/27/2015 | staff

Posted on 01/27/2015 3:11:05 PM PST by Kid Shelleen

It was supposed to be the storm of the century, a blizzard like no other that would dump two feet of snow on New York City and shut the Big Apple down for days.

Instead, New Yorkers awoke Tuesday to several inches of snow on the ground. Roads were mostly clear and the only headache was the fact the city had shut down the subways over fears of the impending snowstorm.

So what happened? How could the weatherman have gotten it so wrong? --snip-- Meteorologists are often at the mercy of imperfect computer models that aren't always reliable at this time of the year.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
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1 posted on 01/27/2015 3:11:05 PM PST by Kid Shelleen
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To: Kid Shelleen

Lol, they can’t predict the weather 1 day in advance right, yet we’re supposed to believe in global warming?


2 posted on 01/27/2015 3:12:32 PM PST by Usagi_yo (It's not possible to give success. Only opportunity. Success is earned on it's own right.)
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To: Kid Shelleen

weather forecasters are like economists.


3 posted on 01/27/2015 3:12:59 PM PST by brivette
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To: Kid Shelleen; Excellence

Uh-huh. Yep. Sure. Whatever.

What a bunch of clowns. They’ve been manipulating data for so long, they’re trippin’ themselves up now, LOL!

Joe Bastardi is the only way to go. :)


4 posted on 01/27/2015 3:12:59 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: Kid Shelleen

For South Jersey the thing that saved us from a foot of snow was that troth that held back the snow.


5 posted on 01/27/2015 3:13:29 PM PST by mware
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To: Kid Shelleen

If I’m not mistaken, the king of modeling, Joe Bastardi, also forcasted snowmagedon.

PoPo happens!


6 posted on 01/27/2015 3:13:39 PM PST by corbe (mystified)
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To: Kid Shelleen

“Meteorologists are often at the mercy of imperfect computer models that aren’t always reliable”

But they are 100% certain on global warming forecasts.


7 posted on 01/27/2015 3:14:35 PM PST by Darksheare (Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
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To: Kid Shelleen
Classic, "If you tell the story, it will come"

News outlets these days don't do any news. They entertain and neatly color inside the lines laid out for them. A snow storm is so exciting for their pent up reporter enthusiasm that they just can't help themselves. A story to be covered where they can actually say whatever they want to, it's so thrilling!

8 posted on 01/27/2015 3:16:07 PM PST by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: Kid Shelleen

6 hours before, one could look at publicly available RADAR images of the snow and easily discern that the big snow would miss the Eastern seaboard.

12 hours before your could begin to believe it would.

No excuse.

STOP looking at monitors and models, and do your d@mn observational job as a meteorologist.


9 posted on 01/27/2015 3:16:18 PM PST by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur: non vehere est inermus)
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To: Kid Shelleen

In the country we do not need permission to get outside. What in the frack is wrong with places like Boston and NYC for letting them handle like cattles or army privates?


10 posted on 01/27/2015 3:17:21 PM PST by lavaroise (A well regulated gun being necessary to the state, the rights of the militia shall not be infringed)
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To: Kid Shelleen
I'm not sure why they built it up like they did. It turned and went out to sea....typical of those windy hurricanes....which they ignored.

In other words, their model stunk.

11 posted on 01/27/2015 3:17:48 PM PST by Sacajaweau
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To: Darksheare

That is why they changed the name to “Climate Change”. It allows more wiggle room to fabricate weather science fiction.


12 posted on 01/27/2015 3:18:01 PM PST by Kid Shelleen (Beat your plowshares into swords. Let the weak say I am strong)
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To: Kid Shelleen

They weren’t very wrong. The heavy snow only started a few miles east of NYC.


13 posted on 01/27/2015 3:18:10 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: corbe

We’re not out of the woods yet Joe is calling for a series of snow storms ( I believe he said an average of two per week) for the next couple weeks.


14 posted on 01/27/2015 3:18:52 PM PST by mware
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To: blackdog

Idiot alphabet news media shows screaching like monkeys in a treeis entertainment enough


15 posted on 01/27/2015 3:19:06 PM PST by ronnie raygun (Empty head empty suit = arrogant little bastard)
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To: Kid Shelleen
They weren't really wrong - just 30 miles off.

While NYC was spared the worst, eastern L.I.; eastern CT; Rhode Island, and eastern MA, received 1.5 to 3 feet.

30 mile shift to the west and Manhattan would be sitting under at least two feet.

Try this experiment: Draw a three foot by three foot square at the bottom of the Empire State Building. Then go to the 86th floor observation deck and drop a golf ball and try to put it in that square.

That is about the level of difficulty in predicting exactly where a particular storm is going to drop it's snow.

16 posted on 01/27/2015 3:19:11 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: Kid Shelleen

Maybe, despite all of our technology, weather is still for the most part unpredictable.

But we can be sure that global warming is real, no matter how much proof to the contrary.


17 posted on 01/27/2015 3:19:18 PM PST by KosmicKitty (Liberals claim to want to hear other views, but then are shocked to discover there are other views)
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To: Blueflag

The scenario that would’ve produced a lot of snow was that a low-pressure system would camp itself right outside of Sandy Hook and pump moisture inland for days. If that had happened, it would’ve been a huge storm. But the chance of that happening was always small.

The proper forecast would’ve been for a middle size snowstorm, with the small probability of a huge snowstorm. But that isn’t a very good story.


18 posted on 01/27/2015 3:20:44 PM PST by Haiku Guy (Every driver with a "Ready For Hillary" bumper sticker had to scrape off a "Obama 12" bumper sticker)
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To: Kid Shelleen

In one interview the forecasters stated that the storm didn’t track the way they “hoped” it would. Not “expected” but “hoped”.

They wanted this to happen just as the local and state officials “hoped” it would happen.

They whip up the fear and expectations to create a disaster and you just know it is because they “hope” to use it as evidence of GW.


19 posted on 01/27/2015 3:23:45 PM PST by RJS1950 (The democrats are the "enemies foreign and domestic" cited in the federal oath)
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To: Blueflag
STOP looking at monitors and models, and do your d@mn observational job as a meteorologist.

Or just try looking out the window for once.

20 posted on 01/27/2015 3:27:51 PM PST by Inyo-Mono (Just say to NO Rhinos in 2016.)
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