Recalculating Electoral Votes: The GOP candidate in 2016 could win as many as 351

American Thinker ^ | 03/26/2015 | Bruce Walker

[SeekAndFind]

Beltway pundits routinely grant Democrats in 2016 an advantage in the Electoral College. The magic number is 270 electoral votes.

Twenty-four states are almost certain to go Republican: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming, with a combined total of 206* electoral votes. Any Republican candidate who fails to carry any of those states is going to lose the presidential election anyway.

Where will the 66 electoral votes needed to win the election come? The last four presidential elections have been relatively close in the popular vote nationally, and in four states not in the twenty-four already noted, the Democrat nominee has actually received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than the nominee received nationally over the last four presidential elections. These four states are Colorado (48.63%), Florida (49.18%), Ohio (49.28%), and Virginia (48.42%), compared to the average percentage of the popular vote nationally over the last four elections of 49.83%.

State government in Florida and Ohio is strongly Republican, with increased numbers of Republican states legislators after 2014 in both states. These states are not just winnable, but probable for any Republican nominee who splits the national popular vote evenly with the Democrat nominee. Add the 69 electoral votes of Colorado (9 votes), Florida (29 votes), Ohio (18 votes), and Virginia (13 votes) to the 204 electoral votes, and Republicans win the presidential race with 273 electoral votes.

The Democrat nominee’s percentage of the vote in Iowa (6 electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) has tracked very closely what the Democrat nominee received nationally in those last four elections,

[ilgipper]

Somehow Florida is top to bottom Republican...massive majorities in both houses and every statewide office (except Nelson in the Senate). We just need a candidate that gets the vote out during a national election. Romney losing here was a shock...and a true failure on his part.

[Tanniker Smith]

Or it could lose, depending on the candidate.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

Mary Fallin

I think a Conservative woman candidate is our best hope of getting a Conservative into the White House.

[rbbeachkid]

My guess would be that Cruz would kill it in FL and the Cuban vote, even the younger Dem Cubans.

[DoodleDawg]

BUT not many with her visibility and following that can think on their feet.. that are proven conservatives..

Palin is not running, and if she did then she wouldn't want the second spot.

[diogenes ghost]

"Do you know what you call a Republican who wins 40% of the vote in a national election, all else remaining the same?"

Uhhhh....let me guess....

A twenty point loser??

[2ndDivisionVet]

“that” not “the”

[Ultima]

Florida has been gerrymandered well by republicans which is why they do well in the state house and state senate. IIRC, Florida has been trending democrat at the presidential level.

[Rusty0604]

I grew up in Livermore, then lived in TX for many years, then moved back to bay area for many years, and now I’m back in TX. I hate that the liberals took over such a beautiful State (CA).

[Intolerant in NJ]

If Republicans get out and vote, that is.....

[Lisbon1940]

Has she said she is not interested since saying she would be interested?

[rollo tomasi]

Scott barely won (Over 70,000 ballots did not have a vote for governor) and gerrymandering has proved successful for Repubs. The I-4 corridor is morphing into South Florida concerning their voting habits. The young Cuban population is not listening to the stories/warnings of their grandparents.

Florida has a perverted love affair with Bill and Hillary. The old hag smoked Obama in the 2008 primary although FL delegates only had a half vote each at the Dem convention. FL is a toss-up at best tilting more in favor of the dems nationally. Fear turning on the TV and grab your barf bags in 2016 if you live in FL because the political ads are going merciless. Excuse my short sentences going mobile.

[nascarnation]

Good post.

The reality is that the only states that count in a POTUS election are Ohio and Florida.

With California, Illinois, and NY in the bag (104 evs) without spending a penny, all the action is in those two contests.

Unfortunately although they both have R gov and SoS, the Dems seem particulary good at vote fraud in Fl and Oh.

[Conservative_caterer]

No...just no. Having met governor Kasich and listened to him speak, he is a fine governor.As a president,I almost guarantee a rino sell out within a year.

[DoodleDawg]

Has she said she is not interested since saying she would be interested?

She said she'd be interested in running for the presidency. She isn't going to accept the second spot again. Regardless, there are far better choices for Cruz to pair up with.