My personal feeling, as I’ve stated before, is that I think Marylanders have a bit of an aversion to electing a Black to a key top office (Governor or Senator). Well, you could say they voted heavily for Zero, but that wasn’t for a statewide office. I think there are enough White Democrats in the state that they do NOT want to elect a Black, especially one from PG County, which is now even more Black and more Dem than the city of Baltimore.
That was my gut feeling when I predicted early on that Lt Gov. Anthony Brown would lose to Larry Hogan, Jr. for Governor. If B’more Mayor Rawlings-Blake gets in, it would be simply to stop Edwards (I think if she did that, there would be a major uproar amongst Black MD Dems), and as you said, that would enable a split and a White Dem to win the nomination (and then it would be back to Van Hollen or KKT).
I expect there’s already enough feeling amongst MD Black Dems that they are OWED a top office, given that they are at present lowballed on what they contribute in votes vs. the offices they hold (especially at the higher levels). As it is, and likely to their chagrin, the weak MD GOP has already put in 2 Black Lt Governors (Steele & current Boyd Rutherford), while they’ve gotten just Anthony Brown, for whom will likely get the consolation prize of Donna Edwards’ seat in the House.
Where I think Edwards will have a problem in the general goes back to the fact that (as with Anthony Brown), these were candidates that did not rise from mixed-race constituencies, but from a virtually all-Black enclave (PG County). “Representing Whites” is not something they’ve had to deal with or concern themselves with, and White MD Dems know this (they won’t SAY it, but they know it — and they provided the victory for Hogan).
I believe it remains a critical problem for almost every Black pol representing a VRA district at the Congressional level. Nearly all of them will never be able to win a statewide office, because they’re so exclusively focused on race. Maryland should be a state where they ought to be given the political dynamics, but it has yet to happen (and again, I discount Zero, since that was a fluke unlikely to occur again for a long time to come).
If Anthony Brown had broken through, it would be easier to say Edwards would have a better time of it, but I think she will be the most divisive nominee the MD Dems could put up, and especially coming out of that free-for-all primary where racism charges are likely to fly fast and furious.
I don’t which on the GOP side is necessarily the best to put up. Andy Harris seems ideologically preferable, but his CD hasn’t gotten a statewide winner in a century. Dan Bongino is a curious possibility (he did almost beat Delaney in a Dem-gerrymandered seat) and hails from the CD that has elected 3 of the last 4 Republican Senators (both Bealls and Mathias), but he had to deal with a disastrous mess running statewide when 2 candidates split the center-right vote.
That leaves us with Bob Ehrlich. Despite problems with him, he may have the best shot having won statewide. However, as was pointed out, he ran so poorly in 2010 in his rematch against O’Malley to be accused of “throwing the race.” So here, this is a black mark against him (and would be his 4th consecutive race he’s run in 14 years, having lost all but the first). Other nominees, such as Lollar, are too desultory to consider. We’ve got to run a first-tier challenger.
Its way too painful for me to try to follow this by myself.
After 2012 when Ehrlich was slaughtered by O Malley, with giving next to no fight back to him,
and after gay marriage passed in 2010 referendum, the year of the national GOP wave,
I told myself I wouldn't probably wont vote again here in Maryland.
But as I saw 2014 shape up as another 2002 in the backlash against Dems here(Ehrlich /Steele got the governorship ), I had to vote. I was glad I did.
But this was a 12 year Dem winning spree here.
KKT has decided against running, endorses Van Hollen.