Lindsey Graham could be the South Carolina spoiler

Washington Examiner ^ | June 2, 2015 | Ryan Lovelace

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., may hope his presidential campaign spoils Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's chances of holding higher office, but he could unintentionally disrupt former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's performance in the Palmetto State.

To listen to Graham tell it, the person most surprised by his decision to run for president may have been Lindsey Graham. While he appears to relish his status as an underdog, his penchant for challenging the libertarian wing of his own party and omnipresence on political talk shows could magnify his campaign. It's still early, but Graham's success could spell bad news for Bush.

Graham will likely lock down voters who would otherwise support Bush, according to Dave Woodard, a South Carolina GOP consultant who counts Graham as a former client alongside fellow South Carolinians such as Rep. Trey Gowdy and former Sen. Jim DeMint.

"I think it's hard to say right now, but he's probably pulling from Jeb Bush the most," Woodard said. "If he were to drop out today, I think most of the voters go to Jeb Bush."

It's too soon to tell if Graham voters could alter the outcome of the South Carolina primary, but Woodard said being a native son would certainly help his chances among voters at home.

Speaking in his hometown of Central on Monday, Graham followed his sister onstage and talked about how his community helped him achieve success.

"There are a lot of so-called 'self-made' people in this world; I am not one of them," Graham said. "I'm a man with many debts to my family, to you, to South Carolina, and to the country. I'm running for president to repay those debts, to fight as hard as you fought for me."

Local polling of South Carolina Republican voters from earlier this spring shows Graham coming in behind Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. RealClearPolitics' average of polls in South Carolina shows the two governors nearly tied at approximately 16 percentage points, while Graham registered 10.5 percentage points.

Graham was also not included in a poll that contributed to Bush and Walker's stronger showing in the average of South Carolina polls. Woodard, also a political science professor at Clemson University, said a poll he recently conducted showed that 17 percent of South Carolinians indicated that they would be willing to vote for Graham simply because he is from their home state.

Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Chris Connelly said voters who supported Graham in the past would not give him a free pass when it comes to the 2016 presidential race.

"He's certainly got a lot of loyal people; I think the thing that's interesting about presidential politics is, I learned in 2012, our people expect a lot of retail politics," Connelly said. "No question Sen. Graham is a favorite son, but he's thrown himself into the fray of presidential politics now, and they still want to see him go around the state too, so it's going to be an interesting dynamic."

Graham's campaign appears poised to focus largely on national security. Woodard said Graham might have visions of another national security hawks's path to securing the GOP presidential nomination: Arizona Sen. John McCain. McCain, a close friend of Graham's, has said he believes Graham will perform better than expected.

"He's a dark horse — keep an eye on him," McCain told reporters earlier this year. "In debates, he'll shred 'em. Have you ever seen Sen. Graham in a debate, on the floor of the Senate? He will do wonderful. I don't want to raise expectations, but I'm confident."

While the only competitor Graham mentioned by name in his announcement was Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, the senator also focused on challenging the non-interventionist wing of the GOP led by Paul.

"The next president must be an informed and decisive commander in chief," Graham said. "I'm running for president because I am ready to be commander in chief on day one...Those who believe we can disengage from the world at large and stay safe by leading from behind, vote for someone else. I'm not your man."

In a fundraising pitch sent out moments after Graham formally announced his candidacy, his campaign highlighted his 33-year career in the military in the Air Force, National Guard and Reserves. Graham recently retired from the U.S. Air Force Reserves.

While the conventional wisdom says Graham is a second or third-tier candidate, Woodard said, if something were to happen that gravely impacted U.S. national defense, then Graham could emerge as a front-running contender.

"Things can turn around quickly," Woodard said. "He has a lot of problems here in South Carolina given his past record, but nonetheless stranger things have happened."

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Every U.S. Senator looks into the mirror and sees a POTUS. And campaign consultants get rich taking it to the bank.

However.

I wonder who's backing a Graham campaign?

Last night on Fox News it was reported that Graham said if he doesn't do well in the early primaries, that he will bow out of the SC race and throw his support behind another candidate.

Gosh - who could that be?

Bush?

Ya think?

[clearcarbon]

"I wonder who's backing a Graham campaign? "

Democrats, so he can usurp the conservative candidates.

[the_Watchman]

I thought he had already spoiled South Carolina!

[RginTN]

he could unintentionally disrupt former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s performance

---

is this a bad thing? The RINOs vote split gives the Conservative the edge...yes???

[upchuck]

"I think it's hard to say right now, but he's probably pulling from Jeb Bush the most," Woodard said. "If he were to drop out today, I think most of the voters go to Jeb Bush."

Precisely! In the meantime, linda gets to build up her war chest.

Uber RINO Lindsey Ping
"Republican by day, Democrat by night."

Want on or off this ping list?
Just FReepmail me.

h/t to martin_fierro for the graphic

[lee martell]

I think it’s ex Mayor,Busybody Extraordinaire Bloomberg.
I think he misses being king of the hill and the one everybody is talking about.

[Gaffer]

He’s there to drain support from Walker/Cruz. At the point where he’s done his job, he’ll bow out and urge support for Jeb Bush. He’s doing this for a slot on the short list for VP.

[tdscpa]

Linseed has no chance to even be a spoiler.

[House Atreides]

He’s there to drain support from Walker/Cruz. At the point where he’s done his job, he’ll bow out and urge support for Jeb Bush. He’s doing this for a slot on the short list for VP.
*************************************************************************************

Precisely!

[Gaffer]

I don’t disagree, but their RINO egos won’t let them face it. They are too busy getting fleeced by the nomadic campaign consultants and pandering to Chamber of Commerce and the cronies that support them.

Sometimes when I see these guys on TV I’m thinking of “I’m ready for my closeup, Mr. DeMille!”

[DaveA37]

“He’s there to drain support from Walker/Cruz.”........

Just how much money does each candidate get from the republican coffers towards their campaigns? With all those aspiring to become POTUS, soon the coffers will be down to five bucks for each one running. The money bucket is rapidly draining.

[rodguy911]

All you Trey Gowdy supporters note that Gowdy is a big Graham supporter.Gowdy is weak on immigration as well.Just sayin’ there are no 100% pols anywhere.

[Dr. Sivana]

Somebody, a candidate with no chance to win, but a pile of money, or even a well-funded PAC has to go on the attack on Graham in South Carolina ONLY. The reason? Do everything possible to run Graham’s numbers down far enough in his home state that he has to worry about getting re-elected to the Senate. My fear is that those who are superficial news readers/watchers will latch onto Graham as “Not Jeb” for SC.

[maggief]

http://images.politico.com/global/2015/02/17/dc_pro-israel_luncheon.html

Co-Chairs

Ken Abramowitz
Dr. Miriam & Sheldon G. Adelson
Yitz Applbaum
Robert Asher
Richard Bassuk
Wayne Berman
Elliott Broidy
Norm Brownstein
Safra Catz & Gal Tirosh
Dr. Ben Chouake
Ted Cutler
Edward Czucker
Phil Darivoff
Alec Ellison
David Flaum
Arie Genger
Jeffrey Gunter
Roger Hertog
Jon Jacobson
Howard Jonas
Seth Klarman
Steven Klinghoffer
Eliot Lauer
Edward C. Levy, Jr.
Barry Mannis
Lew Meltzer
Larry A. Mizel
Bobby Rechnitz
Frank Risch
Lenny Sands
Roger Sofer
Bill Stern
Judy & Sidney Swartz

invite you to a luncheon and policy discussion with
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham
moderated by
Matt Brooks

and featuring special guest speakers
Senator Kelly Ayotte
Senator Norm Coleman
Congressman Trey Gowdy
Senator Jon Kyl
Senator John McCain
Congressman Ed Royce

...

Luncheon and Policy Discussion with
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in support of

Security Through Strength
Tuesday, March 3, 2015 | 11:00 am – 1:30 pm

Security Through Strength is the political committee helping United States Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) “test the waters” for a potential 2016 run for president. The committee will fund the infrastructure and operations allowing Graham to travel the country, listen to Americans, and gauge support for a potential presidential candidacy.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I doubt Lindseed will spoil anything except the air around him.

[rodguy911]

Excellent post! Could be right on. We shall see.

[Does so]

He’s doing this for a slot on the short list for VP.

Refresh me with times-past when a former candidate for President became VP in he same contest?

[Gaffer]

Maybe never but what does that matter. History means nothing to the elites. Only money and power. We never elected a total nothing for President before 2008 but we have one now.