Posted on 10/14/2015 7:43:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republican voters think the economy is the number one issue but can’t manage a public discussion on economic policy, as I observed Oct. 4 (“Who are you, and what have you done with the Republican Party?“). They flail at hot-button issues, defunding Planned Parenthood, for example, and look for scapegoats such as illegal Mexican immigrants (whose numbers are actually falling). It seems pointless to make predictions of any sort in the midst of the moral equivalent of a riot, but nonetheless I will go out on a limb: the Republicans will nominate Sen. Ted Cruz as president and Sen. Marco Rubio as vice-president, by process of elimination.
This conclusion seems inevitable by process of elimination. The voters are in a surly, rebellious mood and display their anger by telling pollsters they will vote for anti-Establishment candidates who never have held office (Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Paul).
CBS Poll Released October 11
| Oct. 9 | September | |
| Donald Trump | 27% | 27% |
| Ben Carson | 21% | 23% |
| Ted Cruz | 9% | 5% |
| Marco Rubio | 8% | 6% |
| Jeb Bush | 6% | 6% |
| Carly Fiorina | 6% | 4% |
| Rand Paul | 4% | 3% |
| Chris Christie | 3% | 1% |
| Mike Huckabee | 2% | 6% |
The four anti-Establishment candidates together command 58% of Republican preferences, according to the CBS poll. But it is unlikely that the party ultimately will nominate any of them. They simply are too volatile, too inexperienced and too labile to carry a presidential campaign. If that assumption is correct (and it is a big assumption), then that 58% will have to go somewhere else.
We can array the Republican candidates in a Venn diagram, with two regions denoting “experience” (holders of high political office) vs. the rebels. There is one name and one name only in the intersection of the two Venn diagrams, namely Cruz: he is perceived as anti-Establishment, but he has held high office at the state and national level.
Cruz is the likeliest person to inherit the 58% anti-Establishment vote once the Trump-Carson-Fiorina euphoria fades. It’s noteworthy that Cruz polls strongest among elected officials in the Republican race, at 9% this morning vs. 5% in September. Most of his gain appears to have come at the expense of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, which suggests that conservative evangelicals are consolidating their efforts around Sen. Cruz. The Republicans need a candidate with anti-Establishment credentials. A Jeb Bush ticket would risk defections to third-party challengers.
Cruz, moreover, has the strongest organization on the ground among all the Republican candidates. CBS news reported last week that he raised $12.2 million in the third quarter, more than twice the $6 million raised by Sen. Marco Rubio. Ben Carson, to be sure, raised about $20 million, but Carson simply will not be the candidate. The average Cruz donation was just $66, and the Texas senator has a strong grassroots organization, perhaps the strongest of any of the Republican candidates.
Jeb Bush is weighed down by his family name, by his own diffident personality, and by his failure to persuade the big donors who supported his father and brother that he can win. He doesn’t suit the national mood. Sen. Rubio is a charming young man whose main disadvantage is to carry the baggage of the Bush administration’s failed foreign policy, tying his tongue in knots while apologizing for the Iraq War. The rest of the Republican field is hardly worth a comment. Rubio would make a terrific VP candidate. It’s a natural: with two Hispanics on the ticket, the Republicans have a better chance of capturing Latino votes.
Ted Cruz, in summary, is best positioned to capture the Republican protest vote, and best positioned on the ground in primary states. He is also without doubt the most intelligent, literate and cultured person running for president, a former national debating champion, and a star student of the conservative philospher Robert George at Princeton as well as the liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz at Harvard. If I read him correctly, he has paced himself, allowing Donald Trump to grab the headlines, tipping his hat to this wild man of the Republican primaries by way of acknowledging the sympathy he has won from voters. Meanwhile has has spent most of his time building an organization on the ground, in preparation for the moment when the anti-Establishment vote fades. He carries none of the toxic baggage of the Republican foreign-policy establishment; on the contrary, he drew their ire for ridiculing the idea that the U.S, could turn Iraq into Switzerland.
There’s a case against Cruz, to be sure. Ronald Reagan is his political model, and he has watched so many Reagan speeches that he can do a persuasive Reagan impression. But in many ways he is still the tall, geeky bookworm who aced every exam and became every teacher’s pet and went through hell in junior high school. Ronald Reagan had a spontaneous wit and presence of mind. In February 1980, in a dispute with the moderator of a candidates’ debate, he stood up like a Hollywood sheriff at a Republican debate and declared, “I am paying for this microphone!” The voters saw the real Reagan all the time, and loved him. Cruz is studied, not spontaneous, and humor is not his strong suit. In some ways he evokes Richard Nixon more than Reagan.
Those are disadvantages, to be sure, but I do not think they will outweigh Sen. Cruz’ advantages. He is in the right part of the Republican Party at the right time. His debating skills and mastery of public policy will show well in a prolonged campaign, especially against a slapdash thinker like Vice President Biden. There simply isn’t anyone else whom the Republicans can run with the same skill set, organizational capacity and ability to unite the party.
Hope you have a net under that limb you are going out on.
It’s a little early to be talking VP’s for any candidate. But my first thought is that Rubio could help win Florida.
Is this satire?
I will say this. If it does end up that Cruz and Rubio become a ticket, I’m just not going to vote next year if that’s what I’m left with. Absolutely not. No more settling, even though Cruz is my preference, first and foremost.
PJ media buried Trump several months ago. HaHa!
Ted Cruz Isn’t Trump Voters’ Second Choice, Part Two
PJ Media
Ummmm, unless this is from a parallel universe, the author needs to reconsider Paul in this list. He's a sitting senator.
Cruz Missile & Water Boy? Nope .... I’m not seeing it.
That makes no sense. Your guy (the best guy) on the top of the ticket but you won’t vote?
It makes sense to me. There is nothing anyone could say or do to convince me that a decision to bring Rubio onto a Cruz ticket makes any sense at all. Rubio is an opportunist amnesty shill. The fact that Cruz would even deign to think a ticket with him is within his or my belief system is completely alien to all logic. His doing so would completely erase any faith and belief I had in Cruz.
Expediency - calculation for result, even if for the best cause and intent is still settling and an indication of weak resolve for one’s principles.
I’m not interested in settling, holding my nose, constructive abandonment of principles or any of that. Been there done that and am not going to do it ever again.
The next POTUS is going to be Donald J. Trump! End of subject....
I would never vote for Ted if he is even considering FRAUD RUBIO....and I am a major TED CRUZ supporter.
I heard this same scenario last night at our Conservative Club meeting. Too early to tell but Trump may just shoot his mouth off one too many times.
Trump at 27%, Carson at 21%, and Fiorina at 6%, and they think the public will settle on an establishment (hold’s public office) candidate at 5% for the nomination?
Sorry, I’m not buying the 9% figure with all the other polls I’ve seen.
One thing this political season has spawned is some of the wildest pie in the sky ideas I’ve ever seen political writers and pundits offer up.
These are by far, the wildest political rantings I’ve ever seen. Just simply unhinged...
Assuming the assumption is correct, don't expect me to go anywhere else but home. I will not vote for a rino. I will just not vote.
If enough people think like you do, we just might have a repeat of 2012.
I think Trump is convincing himself that he can win it all and become POTUS.
My bet?
I think Trump will pick his VP based on what state becomes most critical to the EV victory.
If Ohio, I think he will pick Rob Portman.
If Florida, I do not know. Not Jeb or Rubio.
Pennsylvania? Who knows?
Cruz will be the AG in a Trump administration.
I also think Trump will select his cabinet at the same time as his VP pick.
BTW, friends on Wall Street say Bloomburg is running around testing the waters with big shots as a Democratic POTUS candidate if HRC is charged and if Biden does not run. Can you imagine two NYC billionaires squaring off?
As much as I hate to say it I think Trump will eventually get tired of the backstabbing and heavy handed tactics the GOP is using against him, especially Fox News. I think he’ll say “to hell with it, I’ve got a company to run”, and bow out of the race.
I did think he would tell his supporters to support Cruz but now that Cruz has said he didn’t think Trump could ever be elected I think Trump will not be so gracious to Cruz.
Although I don’t want to see it I think the eventual GOP nominee will be Rubio. The Koch brothers are giving him a billionare dollars to bankroll his campaign. Republicans have to carry Florida and Ohio to win the presidency. I think Rubio will pick Kasich as his running mate and once again we’ll have no true conservative leading the ticket, but Rubio, even with his amnesty talk, would be 1000 times better than Romney as a candidate. So that’s my prediction. If Hillary Clinton is elected president this country is finished. Obama has tried his best to destroy it and she’ll finish it off. The Supreme Court will go liberal for the next 50 years if she’s elected.
Yeah just like Romney picked Ryan to win in WI.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.