It could get worse...
Posted on 10/23/2015 8:07:47 AM PDT by Cecily
As a meteorologist of 28 years...I can tell you that measurements today are much more accurate than they were 28 years ago...and CERTAINLY more accurate than they were 45 years ago.
I can tell you from first hand experience that many of the "rules of thumbs" we used to use back in the day were really good for then...but wouldn't be good for now.
For example....we used to use a rule of thumb for geostrophic winds that is still in the ballpark...but not near as accurate as SFMR measurements. We also used the following formula: (Sq rt of 1010-P)*14= Max sfc winds. This is probably the same formula those NWS meteorologists used at the NHC back in the day. This will get you into the ballpark of max winds...using the sq rt of lowest pressure mins 1010 MB # 14 to give you the knots.
But meteorology has advanced TREMENDOUSLY in the last 45 years. It's night and day since I've been doing this...and the actual observations are much more accurate then they were 45 years ago...at which time there was a lot of guestimating.
SE Texas. Nature of job, kept me to stay.
I've looked at the wind blowing the trees in the middle of a micro-burst and thought it was 90....and it was 65. The human eye...even ones that are trained to observe weather...usually over-estimates. I've learned to be more accurate in my later years. I now guess the winds and reduce it by 1/4...and that gets me in the ball park...lol.
It could get worse...
this is the same group that actually “raised” Hurricane Andrews winds and changed its rating to a Cat 5....sounds like some people just wanna keep their funding coming in. Changing thngs 10..20...30 years after the event...sounds like they have an agenda...alot of them are global warming kooks...so whats happening now has to be worse,,,right? Silly.
As a weather guy I was on the hurricane ride-out team and was HIGHLY PISSED off that they were going to move us into a bomb shelter during the peak of the storm (which never happened because it veered)...and that I was not going to see it first hand.
I'll never forget my boss walking out under the awning as it passed to the east. The winds were about 50. He looked at me and said "You're disappointing...aren't you..."
What could I say but...YEP!
As a weather guy I was on the hurricane ride-out team and was HIGHLY PISSED off that they were going to move us into a bomb shelter during the peak of the storm (which never happened because it veered)...and that I was not going to see it first hand.
I'll never forget my boss walking out under the awning as it passed to the east. The winds were about 50. He looked at me and said "You're disappointing...aren't you..."
What could I say but...YEP!
“I can also tell you first hand that personal observation is a HORRIBLE way to tell correct wind speeds.”
I neither wrote nor implied personal observations were used to determine wind speeds, which to me would seem to be an impossibility for the average person. I wrote that the people were stating what the meteorologists reported.
Personal observation can be used to verify that he winds were tornadic-like. We have all seen pictures of that type of total devastation.
It is being called that by multiple media outlets. I have found no record of a stronger (wind speed) storm on record. Do you have another source?
Much like Andrew. I believe final wind speeds were rated at 165, then the northern eye wall (My house!) was at 20 mph more due to forward speed.
The devastation was incredible, we saw concrete block buildings get destroyed. I cannot imagine speeds over 200 mph in MEXICO. I believe Puerto Vallarta and another town there, are going to be completely obliterated.
We need to make sure that we send the same amount of help to Mexico as they have for Katrina and other hurricanes.
I actually thought Hurricane Ike was kind of fun.
That was before I actually owned my house though. Life’s a free-wheeling whirl when you rent.
Plus, I and my neighbors all got to use the complex’s pool water to make our toilets flush. That was an adventure.
Sorry, I misunderstood what you meant by:
“But they certainly try to imply that it is the strongest hurricane ever.”
I didn’t recognize Jeff Head as “they”.
They probably count all the cheap labor they facilitate to come our way illegally as foreign aid to us.
I was certain that Andrew had sustained winds of 200 mph.
Texas officials probably over-reacted a tad to Rita, but that was understandable given that just a few weeks earlier Louisiana officials had failed to react at all to Katrina until it was too late.
Remember back in 2005 when we were told that Katrina and Rita were proof of Global Warming and that we could expect stronger hurricanes every year as a result? Since then, ten years have passed and not a single Category 3 or higher hurricane has hit the U.S.
Of course, that is also proof of Global Warming. It is pretty damned convenient that no matter what the weather happens to be it is proof of Global Warming.
It was upgraded to a cat 5 hurricane, 165 MPH sustained. It was moving forward at 20 MPH, so parts were exposed to 185, but thats not near 205+.
From my experience, while in the Navy during WW2. We were in a convoy of about 100 ships heading back to the NY in 1944.
Four days from NYC a Hurricane hit us that the swells were as high a 70 feet, no coffee, no food, hardly any sleep. Had to tie ourselves into our bunks. We were then told to divert to Boston instead of New York. While heading into Boston the storm slowed somewhat and as we tied up in Boston Harbor, the Hurricane hit the City. So you’re right, Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Typhoons in the Pacific.
Good thing there is almost nothing where the storm hit.
I remember how bad it was after Andrew for days and days. There was much concern about lack of drinking water. Neat trick I learned from a Peace Corp person. Strain your water through a cloth. Add a drop of Iodine per glass of water and let it sit for 1/2 hour before drinking. My husband did this for 3 or 4 days in Central American towns with the drinking water in cafes and never got sick.
At Friday midnight news reports said the wind had dropped to around 165 mph, and landfall was between Manzanilla and Puerto Vallarta. Aside from rain and landslides, the next big problem will be rainfall levels in Texas. Predicting 1 foot and more of rain following previous generous rain levels.
General consensus that this is the most powerful storm ever seen. Came in over a very warm El Nino ocean.
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