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Sen. Ted Cruz says the Democratic Party is shrinking
Politifact ^ | Sunday, November 15th, 2015 | Emma Hinchliffe

Posted on 11/15/2015 9:40:43 AM PST by Isara

After the first Democratic presidential debate Oct. 13, 2015, Texas Republican Ted Cruz interpreted the crowd’s cheers for proposals to raise taxes as a reason for the decline of the Democratic Party.

The day after the debate, Fox News’ Megyn Kelly asked Cruz how he could appeal for votes from Americans cheering on Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator seeking the Democratic nomination, who has stressed how much more the very wealthiest Americans have than the rest of us.

"Well," Cruz replied, "it's why the modern Democratic Party is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. What does it say that they're having a hard time finding anyone to run for president who isn't nearly 207 years old? You're not getting new and fresh ideas."

Ahem: Sanders is 74; fellow Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is 68. And while we’re not going to gauge how Cruz appeals for more Democratic support, we did wonder if the Democratic Party is shrinking, as Cruz said.

Cruz’s campaign spokesman said Cruz based his statement on the losses the Democratic Party suffered in recent elections. "Cruz is referring to all the Senate seats, House seats, governors and state legislative seats lost during this administration," said Rick Tyler, Cruz for President’s national spokesman.

Democrats losing steam under Obama?

Measuring the exact membership or size of either national party is difficult. Some states, including Texas, do not require voters to register with any party. As University of Texas-Austin government professor Brian Roberts, who studies American political institutions and interest groups, told us, there’s "no easy answer."

But certain measures can give a relative sense of party size, despite variations in registration rules. University of Texas-Austin government professor Sean Theriault, who studies congressional decision-making and has published books on the power of the electorate and party polarization. He suggested three measurements for evaluating the size and strength of political parties: the party in the government, the party in the electorate and party organizations.

The first component we looked at was the Democrats’ total electoral seats. That is what Cruz’s campaign spokesman said Cruz was referring to in his comment.

During Obama’s administration, Democrats have lost 13 U.S. Senate seats, 69 House seats, 11 governorships, and 910 state legislative seats.

Another way to look at a party's health is the number of voters who claim affiliation. Based on this data, the Democratic Party’s support in the electorate fluctuates, but generally is stable. A Gallup poll measuring trends in party identification since 2004 found that 29 percent of Americans identified as Democrats in October 2015. In January 2004, when the poll data begins, 28 percent of Americans identified as Democrats. The 11-year high was 38 percent in March 2008 and March 2009. The poll asks respondents, "As of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?"

For comparison, in October 2015, 25 percent of Americans identified as Republicans, and 42 percent identified as independents. Support for the Republican Party hit a high of 39 percent in September 2004.

Each party’s voter demographics also suggest changes in size ahead. According to a 2014 Pew Research Center study, 51 percent of Millennials identified as Democrats in 2014, compared to their Republican peers’ 35 percent — the highest margin of any generation. The Democratic Party also claims more members among Generation X and Baby Boomer voters, by smaller margins.

The only demographic in which Republicans have the advantage is the Silent Generation, with 47 percent identifying with the Republican Party, compared to 43 percent with the Democratic Party. That the country’s oldest voters are the only ones to lean Republican and that its youngest voters lean Democrat by a strong margin suggests growth for the Democratic Party, while the Republican Party’s strongest demographics are aging out.

Party organizations, and their success in fundraising, are also a component of a political party’s health or size. In the 2010 off-year election cycle, the national Democratic Party raised $817.5 million. In the 2014 election cycle, the most recent available, the party raised $855 million, which suggests an increase of $37.5 million in the 2014 election cycle, according to OpenSecrets.org.

Factoring in funds raised through the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other party organizations, Theriault said, "the Democratic Party "is getting bigger and is bigger than the Republican Party."

For comparison, the Republican Party raised $586,978,840 in 2010 and $665,608,564 in 2014.

Our ruling

Cruz said that the "Democratic Party is getting smaller and smaller and smaller."

Democrats have lost a significant number of seats and federal and state offices throughout the Obama administration. The party as a whole, however, is stable or has grown both in terms of the electorate and its party organizations.

Cruz’s claim is partly accurate, but leaves out important context about the Democratic Party beyond its elected officials. We rate this claim Mostly False.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California; US: Florida; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; california; carlyfiorina; cruz; democraticparty; election2016; elections; florida; jebbush; leftyjournalists; marcorubio; mediabias; newyork; politifact; tcruz; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

At least this group of Dhimmicrats is lined up in front of a brick wall, for when the jihadist firing squads set to work.
Dhimmicrats
(ping to all lists, off-topic, my apologies)
21 posted on 11/15/2015 12:06:23 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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To: SunkenCiv
If these people ever saw brains and blood scattered around their campus by a couple of Rag Heads they would be screaming for protection and gun control.

It is nice that the broads in that are practicing wearing Burkkas.

22 posted on 11/15/2015 12:24:08 PM PST by Little Bill (EVICT Queen Jean)
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To: Little Bill

What’s your take on the NH GOP outcome? Trump is leading the polls by almost double to
Carson. Do you think the polling is correct or out of phase with the future outcome?
Thanks for your input.


23 posted on 11/15/2015 12:24:11 PM PST by deport
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To: deport
Trump, Cruz, Hitlery, Sanders.

I don't know about the polling but Poppa Smurf is going to unhappy about the out come.

At the last county meeting my poll favored Cruz, the sign poll is Trump. At this time all I can say is that people are pissed.

Our problem up here is East Vermont, 2nd congress district, and voter fraud, still early but Trump is making the right kind of noise.

24 posted on 11/15/2015 12:37:50 PM PST by Little Bill (EVICT Queen Jean)
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To: Little Bill

Thanks for your thoughts. Another question. Voter fraud, what type or how is it carried out?
Multiple votes, illegals voting, etc. I guess I would think illegals wouldn’t be a
problem for you.


25 posted on 11/15/2015 12:54:47 PM PST by deport
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To: deport

blame it on those Canadians...


26 posted on 11/15/2015 1:22:03 PM PST by patton (The GBU45. Delivered in 30 minutes, or its free.)
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To: Isara

I only follow the DUmp because it’s all I can stand, but participation is definitely shrinking there. Dissent is quickly shouted down & pushed off the front page.

Does anyone honestly think that the election landslides in 2010 & 2012 don’t indicate that people are fed up with democrat policies?
I believe Cruz is right on this one.


27 posted on 11/15/2015 2:02:09 PM PST by KGeorge (Make America Great Again- Ahead of Schedule & Under Budget.)
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To: Isara

My hope is that both parties are shrinking.


28 posted on 11/15/2015 2:03:26 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Isara

Nice reply from Cruz.


29 posted on 11/15/2015 2:15:31 PM PST by Yardstick
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To: Domandred

“We rate this claim as mostly false”

What does that tell you about Politifact ..?? Maybe their “facts” are not that good.

It tells you they are another sycophant for the left.

And .. dissing Cruz seems to be the game of the day.


30 posted on 11/15/2015 4:53:28 PM PST by CyberAnt ("The fields are white unto Harvest")
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To: Isara
Politifact is forced to agree that, in the last seven years, the Democrats have lost 11 governorships, 13 U.S. Senate seats, 69 House seats, and an amazing 910 state legislative seats. Visibly frustrated, they turn to national Gallup polls. Democrats in 2008 had 38% support; today it is 29%.

Watch liberals on Sunday Morning Talk Shows and you'd think they were on top of the world. They smile smugly and give stupid advice and fake 'concern' to Republicans - as if WE were the people losing... How is it possible they don't know they're the ones losing everything?

Check out Churk Todd and liberal friends on "Meet the Press" and you'll see what I'm talking about.

31 posted on 11/15/2015 5:03:38 PM PST by GOPJ (NOT ONE THIN DIME TO INFLATE 'INTELLIGENCE' BUREAUCRACY IF DING DONGS IN DC BRING IN 100,000 SYRIANS)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
The democrat party is picking up lots of new members, because America’s job situation is horrible.

Also, because the millennials have been so brainwashed by left-wing garbage in the universities that their thinking is all emotional, rather than rational. I hear these hipster types constantly -- they are dangerously amoral & naïve. Women, gays, & minorities seem to dominate. They will vote Democrat simply because Republican represents the mean, evil white straight male.

Paradoxically, there will be an attrition within the Democratic party because of the nature of liberalism. Those who are so self-absorbed, and full of crazy ideas, drop out of the mainstream. They're too busy doing their own thing. Many will just die out or self-destruct.

32 posted on 11/15/2015 5:30:50 PM PST by MoochPooch (I'm a compassionate cynic.)
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To: MoochPooch

The idiots on display at the “Institutions of Higher Learning” have provided enough of their influence to understand that their world is extremely fragile and violent.


33 posted on 11/15/2015 6:25:40 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west))
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To: Little Bill
They're halfway there, they already want gun confiscation.

34 posted on 11/15/2015 8:37:26 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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