Posted on 12/04/2015 1:08:47 PM PST by VinL
Donald Trump is at 36 percent in a recent poll, and Philip Bump at the Washington Post has a piece up about why that is important.
But here's the thing: the poll is not very important at all, for many reasons.
1) It's a national poll â there's no such thing as a national primary.
National polls are helpful very early in the primary season. In 2008, 59 days out, Rudy Giuliani was easily in first place nationwide, with double-digit leads on McCain, Romney and Huckabee. He went nowhere. In 2012, Cain was the leader nationally, but Romney was the leader in New Hampshire. It's a messy picture historically, but leading in national polls does not correlate very strongly with winning Iowa or New Hampshire, but winning Iowa and New Hampshire strongly influence your performance in the national polls.
2) It was 435 registered voters
The CNN poll didn't screen for likely voters. Again, registered voters polls are kind of informative way out from an election, when pollsters can't even screen for likely voters. But within two months of voting, only the likely-voter polls should matter.
3) Still, Trump is winning
Still, Trump leads in Iowa polls, New Hampshire polls and national polls. He also leads in likely voter polls. My point: the 36 percent number, and the relative position of the lower candidates in this CNN poll shouldn't be taken too seriously.
We've got 'em where we want 'em.
I doubt it. Trump will prevail.
.
2015-12-04
I suggest that we NOT be too hard on the Jeb Bush campaign (not said in jest) as he struggles along at three-percent in the National Polls.
Jeb Bush knows something that we clearly do NOT ...
Seventy-five MILLION dollars can buy a LOT of “happiness”, especially the “well, at least I got elected as a Florida U.S. Senator” happiness in 2018 ...
People who donated that $ 100 million to Jeb Bush KNOW about Marco Rubio’s sex sacandal ... and the rest of the dirt on young Marco Rubio.
After all, these ultra-rich folk may be greedy, but they’re NOT stupid.
Jeb Bush clearly believes that an “Act of God” will REMOVE Donald Trump from the presidential primaries BEFORE 15 March 2016.
“Clearly”.
Qui Bono ?
Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton.
Two very powerful establishment enemies.
Lethal enemies.
I’ll leave it at that.
Everyone who reads these comments KNOW that I’m (sadly) correct.
GOP 2016 Predictions : Ben Carson at 7.5 % by Christmas — Yeb Bush Waterloo in Florida Defeat !
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3356989/posts
.
Notice they only write this crap when Ben Carson isn’t tied to Trump :)
Either one works for me..,.I like Trump and Cruz as VPâ¦that way he can carry onâ¦Not like Reagan where Bush did nothing to carry on the Reagan revolution..
I question how much of Trump’s support will translate to actual primary votes. Cruz supporters are solid. Those on FR who support Trump are solid, but the Trump supporters nationwide are responding to Trump based on celebrity. Time will tell if there is a solid voter base there.
So the plan was to be behind that much, pretend like those numbers dont exist, and then magically win.
Ok...
You’re both wrong. Lindsey is well positions to take it all!
” but the Trump supporters nationwide are responding to Trump based on celebrity.”
2 things that people need to stop doing.
#1 Going on the assumption that Trump will “implode”.
#2 That his supporters aren’t real.
I don’t know about that.
Just saying. I think Trump’s support is at least as solid as Cruz’s.
The big news in that poll is that enthusiasm of the Republican voters is MUCH higher than the Dems.
LoL. When have I ever seen a WaPo headline that has ever said this?
Oh yeah, it's all about Trump.
Trump will win because he is working very hard.
I question how much of Trumpâs support will translate to actual primary votes. Cruz supporters are solid. Those on FR who support Trump are solid, but the Trump supporters nationwide are responding to Trump based on celebrity. Time will tell if there is a solid voter base there.
Someone used to post the numbers and pictures of Cruz events...that stopped some time ago, though, I think when it was pointed out that Trump had more people at one event than the entire tally of Cruz events to that point.
Early polls surmised that Trump wouldn’t even run. How WRONG can polls be?
BS, with a decent sample size there is definitely such a thing as a national poll that means something. Don't know and don't care what the sample size of this poll is, but this writer is indulging in wishful thinking and trying to dismiss any notion that Trump's support is that great.
Wouldn’t you drive to see a rock star free of charge?
Lethal enemies???
Surely you jest. Jeb and GW Bush consider Hillary Clinton a "Sister-In-Law".
Bill Clinton calls Barbara Bush "mom"
"Lethal Enemies?"
Image: Bill Clinton Spending Time at His Second Home in Kennebunkport, Maine
No. Not when it’s available on You Tube live streaming or immediately thereafter.
Trump is a celebrity running for President. That is something new. People like to be a part of something new, especially when it makes the news everyday.
I am just wondering if that will translate at the polls. Since we’ve never seen this before, we’ll have to wait and see.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.