Posted on 12/23/2015 7:10:48 AM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Donald Trump has been a front-runner in the 2016 presidential election since he entered the race over the summer, and now new analysis of the polls has suggested that Americans may actually be understating their support for him.
In an analysis conducted by Morning Consult, it was discovered that Trump has done better in online polls than in surveys conducted over the phone.
The study noted: "Trump receives about 5 percentage points more support among registered Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents online compared with live telephone interviews."
The firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp, spoke with the Los Angeles Times and explained why Trump's support may appear higher in online polls and why the online polls are more accurate.
Dropp noted that many of Trump's supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment."
In fact, the study showed that adults answering questions about Trump on the phone were more likely to hide their opinion from the surveyor because of "a social desirability bias in which respondents answer questions in a manner they believe will be viewed favorably by others."
On the other hand, blue-collar Republicans answered the same regardless of the method.
The study was widespread. Some 2,397 potential Republican voters were polled in early December, either by telephone survey, an online survey or by an interactive dialing technique.
Dropp said that the results of the experiment were clear.
"Voters are about 6 points more likely to support Trump when they're taking the poll online then when they're talking to a live interviewer," he said.
While Trump continues to lead in the Republican Party primary, voters may be surprised by Trump's overwhelming number of supporters.
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativetribune.com ...
Trump is that ‘crazy uncle’ at family gatherings. Everybody says he’s crazy, but secretly they agree with him.
My husband does that too. We get multiple calls from all over the country every day. It’s annoying.
There's a term for thousands of anecdotal observations, I believe it's called a "statistical sample." lol
The GOPe is "double-dawg" daring us to vote for Trump or Cruz, and I think they're going to get their wish.
I think the amount of support Trump will get from the African American and Hispanic communities will blow the liberals away
And I believe he’ll have more women support him than people realize. Everyone I know likes him. Seems more women I know support him than their husbands.
Another demographic that likes him too are recent college grads. Most are tired of living at home with mom and dad and unable to pay their loans off. They want real jobs.
My son in law is 24 and started a new job in the fall. He’s now into politics and loves Trump. He was all cocky in early fall telling everyone he was voting for Trump, even bought one of the hats online.
Over the weekend he said to me sheepishly, “do you tell people you’re voting for Trump?”
He admitted that he can’t say it in work because the big mouths (liberals) have so openly mocked Trump in the lunch room or at office parties that he’d feel embarrassed to admit to co workers that he’s a Trump guy. He’s still voting for him and loves him. But privately.
Amazing the power of social influence.
And it’s the same people, over and over!
Washington is one of those states.
I saw a poll from a Seattle radio morning show...”Donald Trump: Yes or No?”. The answers were a bout 90% “No” with several adding interjections and expletives to emphasize the point.
The thing is...most of the state might indeed vote for Trump, but it’s the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett population bloc, full to the brim with brain-dead liberals, that overwhelm the ballots.
As or me...Trump OR Cruz. I’ll vote for either of them.
hahaha. 10000%
I believe Trump will beat expectations in every state.
there are a lot of people like my self who are very critical of trump but if given a choice between Hillary and trump will vote for trump. I would rather see cruze but will vote trump if he wins....I think that those that are overly critical of trump should remember there is no such thing as a perfect candidate.
Yes. I always have 30 phone numbers blocked. New ones pop up all the time, so I delete the oldest one and add the new one. The first to go on the blocked list are any that hang up and leave a dial tone.
Many people vote as if they were voting for one of those reality talnt shows. They want to be able to say they picked the winner.
I’ll help THE SECRET!
There are only 2 THINGS that could separate me from Trump, and I suspect that I speak for MILLIONS here.
1) Trump implodes in some serious way - like reversing his stand on border security.
2) The REPUBLICAN PARTY starts allowing candidates to actually represent the NEEDS of Republican voters - rather than treating us voters like a bunch of USEFUL IDIOTS. That way we can find out what Cruz (and others) REALLY believes on immigration (and gay marriage, for that matter) - rather than him having to try to weasel around much of the issue, or else risk losing financial support. The Democrats have NO PROBLEM allowing candidates to support what their voters want, why is it so hard for Republican leaders to do the same?
BOTTOM LINE - neither will change prior to the 2016, and even if the Republican Establishment did free-up their candidates, it’s too late and no one would trust them now. So it is GAME OVER for them.
I don't even answer a lot of the time even when I know who it is.
That being said, online polls need to be viewed cautiously because they are almost impossible to control. Ron Paul always did far better in online polls than he did in actual votes.
You most certainly are not alone!
As a caveat, I am not comparing Trump to Reagan, but President Reagan's victory in 1980 is illustrative.
I was in my 4th year in Germany in 1980, and I lived in a small town for 3 of those years. The liberal German media had cast Reagan as a cowboy who would start WWIII.
Over the course of 2-3 months before the election, my neighbors were pleading with me to vote for Carter. I patiently, but persistently, laid out a theme that the world is a better place when America is strong, and Reagan was the man to do it.
I threw in tidbits of American history and civics, to give them a better idea of what America was really all about, not what they were being spoon-fed by their media.
Shortly after Inauguration Day, and the release of the hostages in Iran, I was invited to sit at the stammtisch of the neighborhood gasthaus, a table reserved for family and close friends of the family.
It's an honor I cherish to this day.
There's no doubt in my mind that there are only two candidates who will seek to strengthen our country: Trump and Cruz.
Agree —Trump will beat expectations. I don’t know if my friends are “canaries in the coalmine”, but I know several hollywood people who were traditionally democrat that will vote for Trump. Simply can’t stand Hillary and because Cali is so over-run with illegals, they like what Trump is saying about the wall..... My guess is there are a lot more in Cali who think like that —whether he’ll win the state is doubtful, however.....
I sense a tsunami afoot.....
LOL varouga... YOU get it.
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Good point. I remember that.
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