Posted on 01/06/2016 7:32:30 AM PST by CreviceTool
Adweek: You've made it clear that you don't believe Donald Trump has a legitimate chance to win the GOP nomination. He's leading the polls … why are you so confident in his demise? Silver: I don't think his chances are zero. You have to be very careful about saying they're zero, but I think they're lower than 20 percent or 25 percent. Maybe they're 10 percent. Maybe they're 8 percent. I'm not sure, somewhere in that range. You've never had a candidate like Donald Trump win a nomination before, at least not in the modern era, which is 1972 or so, onward, which is when people started voting in primaries and caucuses. Usually the party is able to find ways to shuffle candidates who are openly running against the party to prevent them from winning their party's nomination. A second reason is that I think people are paying too much attention to the polls. Historically, polls, at this point, are not very predictive at all.
(Excerpt) Read more at adweek.com ...
Well, DUH!!!!!
Idiot.
Then pay attention to the rallies!
A candidate who consistently fills stadiums with supporters, not school rooms has a 10% chance of winning the nomination.
Lets look back at history and make projections when the paradigm has probably shifted significantly to render those projections useless.
It must be nice to make a lucrative career of spouting out your opinion. I’ve got lots of them; where do I apply?
They both have a pretty good chance.
It will be interesting on the dem side. I envision Hillary winning Iowa but by a close margin. Then onto NH where Bernie will win. The ‘MO’ will be on Bernie’s side with with a solid win and a close second. The MSM will ignore this but I think that it will empower the Berns for the upcoming primaries.
Operation CHAOS redu....
I don't think so.
Nate Silver is gay and liberal but he called all 50 states correctly in the 2012 Presidential election. If you read his views on the election prospects of various candidates you should understand that he has a lot of data at his fingertips. While I don't agree with his politics you simply cannot ignore his track record in predicting the outcome of Presidential elections.
Yes, he will miss one day and admits so, but I'm going to pay close attention to what he has to say over the next several months. The odds are he will have it figured out well before we do.
Don’t underestimate Bernie. The under-30 crowd has lapped-up the Kool-Aid.
Ross Perot had more, and more enthusiastic, crowds than George HW Bush or Bill Clinton.
There is a thing in Hollywood called the Napoleon Dynamite Paradox.
That film was a box-office hit in 2004. It was a small independent production. No Hollywood studio ever would have made it because none of their vast reams of statistical data indicated that it ever SHOULD be made, or that it would become a hit.
This still has the people who run studios nervous and upset over a decade later, because if your data no longer allows you to consistently predict the market, you are essentially working blindfolded. To this day they still can’t figure out what all of their expensive research missed about that film.
I submit that Donald Trump is the Napoleon Dynamite Paradox of politics.
Hmm Trump has been about 20 points ahead of his opponents in the polls, Bernie has behind Hilary in most polls.
Did we really need to him to give us that conclusion?
Mostly I don’t think Hillary can quit the booze, and I also don’t think she can avoid another serious stroke (because of her poor health) under the pressure of the campaign.
Her alcoholism will cede Bernie the nomination when she strokes out.
Agreed. The media is obviously downplaying Hillary’s unpopularity. There is no chance Comrade Sanders wins the Democratic nomination because if he wins in NH the Dem. establishment will step in to save Hillary, but he’ll be a thorn in her side as he probably will draw significant votes in every state caucus and primary as a protest against Hillary.
“....You’ve never had a candidate like Donald Trump win a nomination before.”
People, whose opinion I respect, like Newt Gingrich say that there HAS NOT BEEN ANY candidate like Trump on the American seen since Teddy Roosevelt and before then Andy Jackson.
So, Mr. Silver, who are you comparing Trump to? George Wallace, Ross Perot, etc?
Oh, and one more thing. I actually think that Bernie is going to do much better than people expect.
>>>I submit that Donald Trump is the Napoleon Dynamite Paradox of politics.
Or, perhaps Nate Silver is the Donald Trump of political forecasting
:)
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