Posted on 02/02/2016 6:14:48 AM PST by justlittleoleme
The final days of Iowa polling had a cohesive set of predictions. Donald Trump was supposed to win. Marco Rubio was supposed to come in a distant third. And Bernie Sanders, despite a last-minute challenge to Hillary Clinton, was expected to narrowly lose.
Now we know the polls got it wrong, particularly on the Republican side. Trump lost to Ted Cruz and barely eked out a second-place showing over Rubio. Sanders and Clinton are still locked in virtual tie for first.
The Iowa caucuses are notoriously difficult to predict. But even the final Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record, missed Rubio's rise and Trump's fall. Here are three factors that help explain why the polls got it wrong this time around.
A bigger turnout was supposed to help Trump, but it didn't
Republicans turned out to vote in huge numbers: 185,000 people went to the caucuses, up 5.4 percent from 2012, according to the Washington Post. According to conventional wisdom going into the vote, a big turnout should have helped Trump by proving he could motivate the infrequent voters who were among his strongest supporters.
But it wasn't enough. While about 45 percent of Republican caucus-goers were caucusing for the first time, only about 30 percent of those new voters supported Trump, according to exit polls. So the new voter turnout wasn't a groundswell in his favor.
Observers had been warning that Trump's ground game — the network of volunteers and organizers doing the crucial, down-to-earth work of making sure supporters show up to the polls — was disorganized or nonexistent. On January 13, the New York Times' Trip Gabriel called the campaign's Iowa operation "amateurish and halting":
As temperatures plunged to single digits over the weekend, canvassers for Hillary Clinton posted photographs of themselves on social media going door to door in the snow. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s volunteers in Davenport, a city where the campaign appears to be better organized than elsewhere, decided it was too cold to go out.
Seven volunteers worked the phones at the Iowa headquarters of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in a Des Moines suburb one night last week. At the state headquarters of Mr. Cruz, there were 24 volunteers in a room beneath a sign proclaiming a daily goal of making 6,000 calls. The Trump state headquarters in West Des Moines were largely deserted.
Trump ended up losing Davenport, too, to Rubio.
Evangelical Christians turned out to vote for Cruz
The Des Moines Register poll estimated that 47 percent of caucus attendees would be evangelical Christians. When the pollster changed the model for bigger evangelical attendance, it found Cruz would pull even with Trump if 60 percent of voters were evangelical.
Even that turned out to be an underestimate: 62 percent of caucusgoers described themselves as evangelical or born-again, according to exit polls. And the plurality of their votes went to Cruz. Less religious voters supported Trump.
In the end, according to exit polls, it was most important to caucus-goers that their candidate share their values. And among those voters, Cruz won. Trump won voters who wanted a candidate who "tells it like it is" and "can bring needed change." Rubio won voters who thought electability was most important.
The best poll suggested Cruz had hidden support
The Des Moines Register poll has a better track record than most. It predicted Howard Dean's loss in 2004 and Obama's victory in 2008. But this year, pollster Ann Selzer still found a Trump victory was likely. And the poll got it wrong in other ways: it found Cruz's support was falling and that Trump's was solid.
Still, buried in the details of the poll was enthusiasm for Cruz and Rubio.
Iowa Republicans said they were more enthusiastic about both candidates than they were about Trump, and that Cruz had more knowledge and experience than Trump. A last-minute switch would benefit Cruz, the poll found. And Republicans polled said they'd pick Trump over Cruz in a head-to-head matchup.
To some observers, that boded well for Cruz. They turned out to be right.
I can’t wait to see if he pulls the Awaken the Body of Christ schtick in NH or was it just a one off thing for Iowa.
Cruz had a great ground game. Props to him.
Carson ‘dropping out’ might have helped him a couple of points.
Honestly, with Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum not in the race Cruz would have broken 30%. 70%+ of those votes would have gone to Cruz.
The GOPe got what they wanted. They have a narrative to bash Trump. They think Cruz will fade in the northeast and left coast.
Their man — RUBIO — moves up as Trump and Cruz kill each other off.
“62 percent of caucusgoers described themselves as evangelical or born-again” - That is amazingly high. If one looks at the history from 1976 to now, it seems something changed drastically in the Iowa GOP. Much more religious did very well 2008-2016. Mainstream/incumbent won 1976-2004.
@mitchellvii Its called fraud and dishonesty . pic.twitter.com/R9gAJhQsRr— Nice people 4 Trump (@rhc_gop) February 2, 2016
Strangely enough, I keep hearing of potential overlap (or switches if one drops out) between Cruz & Rubio voters. They really only share non-ideological traits (Hispanic, newbie Senator, religious).
It wasn’t “schtick.”
They did not remember Goldmann Sachs, the people Cruz
helped by initiating the vote on ObamaTRADE,
or know of Cruz’s planned dirty tricks against
Carson.
Cruz is not Mr Personality but what you see is what you get. An Evangelical conservative with balls.
Cruz’s body of Christ routine won’t work next week. However, Cruz and trump will continue to smash each other. It’s gonna be trump winning, with Rubio right on his heels. The MSM is going to be out of their skull. It’s all setting itself up for the establishment just the way they want.
Why are you making fun of Christianity? This was my favorite part of the FNC polling:
5% said Trump shared their values.
With Ted beating DT by 8 points head to head in NH I expect DT to have a big surprise 2/9.
“Observers had been warning that Trump’s ground game — the network of volunteers and organizers doing the crucial, down-to-earth work of making sure supporters show up to the polls — was disorganized or nonexistent. On January 13, the New York Times’ Trip Gabriel called the campaign’s Iowa operation “amateurish and halting”:”
Anytime that comments about that subject were made on FR they were dismissed as BS, trolling, concern troll etc.
And yet the State has voted Democrat in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections.
Exactly.
Trump will win but be damaged from Cruz. Cruz and Trump kill each other off state after state.
Rubio becomes the ‘he can win’ guy - just like Romney.
Fox news last night had a commentator call Rubio “He’s John F. Kennedy to Hillary’s Richard Nixon.”
All scripted.
Cruz and Trump should talk and call a truce.
Get real. I am not making fun of Christianity. I am making fun of Cruz pulling the stunt in Iowa like one of those TV guys.
As one Freeper said..reminded him of Peter Popoff.
We will see if he continues the Awaken the Body of Christ tour.
I can’t wait to see if he pulls the Awaken the Body of Christ schtick in NH or was it just a one off thing for Iowa.
Well since Cruz is the “consistent conservative” I’m sure his Holy Roller message won’t change at all in NH.
Cruz is not Mr Personality but what you see is what you get. An Evangelical conservative with balls.
Unless it’s TPA on the table and Goldman calls in their markers. Then Cruz is GOPe all the way.
And that is exactly why I said I can’t wait to see if he continues the Awaken the Body of Christ tour.
Or was it just Peter Popoff pandering.
I have no doubt he is a Christian.
That is not the issue.
With no ground game Trump got 24%. Not bad:-)
>> the Awaken the Body of Christ schtick
I pray that you’ll see — even if only in hindsight — that the (re)awakening of the Body of CHRIST is not a “schtick”.
And I pray fervently, and unashamedly, that the Body of CHRIST does experience another Great Awakening.
For America’s sake.
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