Posted on 02/06/2016 6:42:17 AM PST by SkyPilot
A pernicious cycle of collapsing commodities, corporate defaults, and currency wars loom over the global economy. Can anything stop it from unravelling?
A global recession is on the way. This truism of economics holds at any point in which the world is not in the grips of a contraction.
The real question is always when and how deep the upcoming downturn will be.
"The crash will come, but it would be nice if it came two years from now", Thomas Thygesen, head of economics at SEB told over 200 commodity investors and analysts in London last month.
His audience was rapt with unusual attention. They could be forgiven for thinking the slump had not already arrived.
Commodity prices have crashed by two thirds since their peaks in 2014. Oil has borne the brunt of the sell-off, suffering the worst price collapse in modern history. Brent crude has fallen from $115 a barrel in the summer of 2014, to just $27.70 in mid-January.
Plenty of investors sitting in the blue-lit, cavernous surrounds of Bloomberg's London HQ would have had their fingers burnt by the price capitulation.
"They tell you should start your presentations with a joke, but making jokes at a commodities seminar is hardly appropriate these days," Thygesen told his nervous audience.
Major oil price falls have a number of historical precedents. Today's glutted oil market is often compared to the crash of 1986, the last major episode over global over-supply. Back in the late 90s, a barrel of Brent crude fell to as low as $10 in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.
The S&P 500 trading pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
On the 70’s the trade SURPLUS was report almost every night. Even with oil imports we STILL had a trade surplus in the 70’s.
When orders for durable goods decreases unemployment goes up in - China.
One of those administrators is Goldman Sachs. They make millions facilitating transfer payments.
I just lost the body of the comment I spent time on. So this will have to make do.
You are conflating two things real money with printed money - aka quantitative easing.
New money is generated through export of things made - we no longer make anything - everything we used to make has been shut down by liberal policies (Rep & Dem). We are at best a service nation where the lion’s share of jobs are menial.
Hope this helps - sorry I lost most of this comment.
They are not viewed as important by the media like the real unemployment rate which is near 32% not 4.9%. It goes on - the massive effort to deceive the public which bears the brunt of decades of destructive policies.
Yes, I waited for your reply. Think: creating WEALTH vs. adding monopoly bills to the system.
And it was the largest BofT in the world ... is it bigger than a ripple now?
Service sector is value added and doesn’t really create wealth it just transfers it around. Wealth is created ( i.e. something of value is created from nothing ) in only three ways; mining, manufacturing and growing (agriculture).
Some people thing that wealth is created by printing money - an illusion which catches up (see impending crash) and makes everything more expensive. However, the proponents feel really good about themselves behind their rose colored glasses ...
Don’t forget laundromats and lottery ticket sales. ;-)
The LSM know which figures they can focus on and which are better left unsaid. Cowards, all of them.
Only some of the New Media is willing to take this on. But even then there’s not much of it because economics is complicated and it’s easier to talk about simple politics and besides most Americans don’t understand economics anyway nor do they want to be bothered about it.
The LSM know which figures they can focus on and which are better left unsaid. Cowards, all of them.
Only some of the New Media is willing to take this on. But even then there’s not much of it because economics is complicated and it’s easier to talk about simple politics and besides most Americans don’t understand economics anyway nor do they want to be bothered about it.
About the only industry in a “boom” is firearms manufacturers.
ie. real vs. physical.
Well, they create ‘some’ wealth by making wealth production more efficient. But it’s an order of magnitude less than what production creates.
A good example I think is that a producer getting a prepared meal and using the saved time to do something more productive increases wealth marginally.
A prepared meal bought by a person who uses the saved time to goof off doesn’t at all.
Yet both transactions are in the consumer service sector.
And some service sector is needed for wealth production to occur, and occur efficiently.
But production is the only ‘engine’ that will grow wealth.
McCain and Paul Ryan will cut social security, strip money from vets, let roads and bridges crumble while throwing American citizens under the bus to save the free ride for every illegal who can walk across our border.
Why?
McCain's, Ryans, and Democrats have one RELIGION and ONLY one religion and that's CHEAP ILLEGAL LABOR. Eff 'em.
I really like that term. I'm going to use it and see if it catches on. I will of course give you credit. May your FR handle become as well known as "Buckhead" and "Aliveritas."
Very true; both big items in my area as the percentage of the non-contributing segment of the population grows.
You flatter me; thank you!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.