Posted on 02/06/2016 6:42:17 AM PST by SkyPilot
A pernicious cycle of collapsing commodities, corporate defaults, and currency wars loom over the global economy. Can anything stop it from unravelling?
A global recession is on the way. This truism of economics holds at any point in which the world is not in the grips of a contraction.
The real question is always when and how deep the upcoming downturn will be.
"The crash will come, but it would be nice if it came two years from now", Thomas Thygesen, head of economics at SEB told over 200 commodity investors and analysts in London last month.
His audience was rapt with unusual attention. They could be forgiven for thinking the slump had not already arrived.
Commodity prices have crashed by two thirds since their peaks in 2014. Oil has borne the brunt of the sell-off, suffering the worst price collapse in modern history. Brent crude has fallen from $115 a barrel in the summer of 2014, to just $27.70 in mid-January.
Plenty of investors sitting in the blue-lit, cavernous surrounds of Bloomberg's London HQ would have had their fingers burnt by the price capitulation.
"They tell you should start your presentations with a joke, but making jokes at a commodities seminar is hardly appropriate these days," Thygesen told his nervous audience.
Major oil price falls have a number of historical precedents. Today's glutted oil market is often compared to the crash of 1986, the last major episode over global over-supply. Back in the late 90s, a barrel of Brent crude fell to as low as $10 in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.
The S&P 500 trading pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
I don’t think we have two years. When these guys say recession what they really mean is depression. Likely a deflationary depression. Its not going to be pleasant.
No one is talking about physical dollar bills. Less than 0.6 percent of the dollars in existence are anything but numbers in bank ledgers.
New money is generated through export of things made
What?
Well that’s how it used to be created before ... who ever gave you that distorted definition is flat out wrong. And yes new money is physical.
If you do not understand then you will forever reap the benefits of a weak and failing economy
Yeah, I choked on that also. Big difference between M1 and other measures subject to QE.
So you believe the government bangs out paper dollars on the printing press, then runs around spending them? They haven't done that since the Lincoln administration. What would be the point? It would all just ends up on bank ledgers anyway.
The Fed creates new money through various means, all of which have the effect of increasing the lending authority of banks. The new money comes into the economy as loans. Have you ever borrowed money from a bank and had them hand you cash?
Put down your crack pipe.
No you misunderstand. Has nothing to do with printing presses - that’s your thing along with the credit business.
Glad you believe so strongly in the Federal government creating money, but again that has nothing to do with new money. That idea must be something you were taught in business school or the like.
Like the other guy said it is about creating wealth where none existed before, and receiving real physical wealth that did not exist. We are not talking about credit which is just a promise with someone else’s money.
Cash from a bank is not new money - new to you, but not new to the economy of the country.
Again: new money is something created by a person from raw materials, sold to someone else in some other country, and the money that comes back is new money.
I have two family members who developed cannabis psychosis. They became delusional, hostile, and reclusive. This was within months of starting heavy use and it stunned all that knew them.
This is how it affects some people.
Heavy use of the mind-altering drug alcohol will screw one up too - doesn't mean it should be banned.
The problem is Medical Marijuana is now Big Business and no one is monitoring or educating users about warning signs. We all know the hazards of drinking but nothing is being done to warn people flooding into Legal Marijuana stores. They should be warned that 10-15% will become cannabis psychotic - hostile, withdrawn, loss of motivation, false memory, anxiety ,paranoia...
http://cannabisandpsychosis.ca/more-information/what-do-we-know/psychosis/what-is-psychosis/
Every medical-marijuana state but (for the time being) California requires a bona fide medical recommendation.
From your site:
“Given the extensive evidence it is relatively safe to say that cannabis use is not a necessary cause for psychosis as the statistics have failed to show that all adults with psychosis related illnesses used cannabis as a young person and nor is it a sufficient cause- as the majority of adolescent users did not develop psychosis in adulthood.”
That is what ruined our family - they get a certificate from some lefty pothead MD and they think it is harmless and going to help. They lose sleep, become paranoid, anxious, and hostile - so they smoke more because it is “medicine”. It is actually poisoning them.
I doubt that the doctor was a pothead or that he told them it was harmless - many medications have risks and undesirable side effects.
So if the majority of cylinders in a revolver dont have a bullet, its OK to play Russian Roulette?
BTW, EVERYONE I know who is still smoking a pot as a mature adult is seriously screwed up and just shells of their former self.
They are listless, unmotivated, and have wasted their lives.
So if the majority of cylinders in a revolver dont have a bullet, its OK to play Russian Roulette?
BTW, EVERYONE I know who is still smoking a pot as a mature adult is seriously screwed up and just shells of their former self.
They are listless, unmotivated, and have wasted their lives.
In our case, the MD was an Eastern, Lefty, Feminazi pot pusher who graduated Harvard no less.
"Given the extensive evidence it is relatively safe to say that cannabis use is not a necessary cause for psychosis as the statistics have failed to show that all adults with psychosis related illnesses used cannabis as a young person and nor is it a sufficient cause- as the majority of adolescent users did not develop psychosis in adulthood."
So if the majority of cylinders in a revolver dont have a bullet, its OK to play Russian Roulette?
Adults must be free to choose what risks they assume. My choice is not to use any mind-altering drug - alcohol, pot, or anything else - but it's not my place to force that choice on others.
BTW, EVERYONE I know who is still smoking a pot as a mature adult is seriously screwed up and just shells of their former self. They are listless, unmotivated, and have wasted their lives.
Everyone you know is not a random sample so can't be extrapolated to the larger population. And you may very well know pot users whom you don't know to be pot users - because they've remained un-screwed-up and discreet.
All irrelevant to the validity of her medical decisions.
pot pusher
How so - does she recommend pot for ailments for which there is no evidence of pot's helpfulness?
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