Posted on 02/11/2016 4:27:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The Republican establishment is grappling with an uncomfortable reality: No single candidate is about to be crowned as its standard-bearer after New Hampshire's primary.
And that means Donald Trump and Ted Cruz could be sprinting toward the presidential nomination before a third rival gets out of the starting blocks.
"The only way for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to be stopped is for the establishment to finally rally around one candidate - and it doesn't look like that is going to happen anytime soon," said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist and a former aide to GOP leaders on Capitol Hill.
South Carolina hosts the next GOP contest, on Feb. 20, but it's far from certain that any third candidate can compete for a win in that state's primary.
Polling in South Carolina has been relatively sparse, but so far surveys show the billionaire businessman with a large lead and the Texas senator tucked comfortably into second place. The two are the big favorites in the Palmetto State, given their wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.
From the establishment's perspective, Trump's landslide win on Tuesday night was just about the worst possible outcome.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who had seemed poised to become the center-right's champion after a strong third-place finish in Iowa's caucuses, sank to fifth in New Hampshire after a disastrous debate performance over the weekend.
Heading up the establishment lane in New Hampshire was Ohio Gov. John Kasich. But Kasich was a very distant second to Trump, and GOP insiders believe he has neither the organization nor the ideological appeal to prevail in South Carolina or in the several Deep South states that will vote on March 1.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush finished fourth in the Granite State - a showing strong enough to guarantee he will be able to stay in the race for a while but not so strong as to deliver a game-changing shot of momentum.
"It certainly didn't simplify the picture any," Republican strategist Charlie Black said dryly. Black has worked at a senior level on several GOP presidential campaigns in the past, including that of 2008 nominee John McCain. He is unaffiliated this year.
It all adds up to an unappealing vista for establishment Republicans. Further deepening the gloom, South Carolina has a strong record of backing the eventual winner of the GOP nomination. The Palmetto State has backed the winning bid in every Republican contest from 1980 to 2008. In 2012, Newt Gingrich won the primary but was defeated by Mitt Romney in the battle to reach the general election.
"I think it's a game-changer, I really do," said David Woodard, a professor of political science at Clemson University who is also a GOP consultant in the state. "Let's just say Cruz wins: I think that's a big thing. He will have won a Southern state, a base-state for Republicans that is not going blue. That could really help him."
But Woodard also offered a note of caution regarding attempts to predict the outcome in his home state.
"I think I can make a good case for any one of about five people winning the primary," he said with a laugh.
The sheer fluidity of the field is already leading to some fierce jockeying for position. Several candidates are making the argument that they are the best placed to stop Trump from rolling onward toward the nomination.
Cruz, whose old "bromance" with Trump is a thing of the past, insisted that "the only person in this field who can beat Donald Trump is me." The Texan's comments, which were made on radio's "Mike Gallagher Show" on Wednesday, were first reported by BuzzFeed.
Rubio spokesman Alex Conant, meanwhile, argued to CNN that Bush's continued presence in the race makes it more likely that Trump will win.
The battle between Rubio and Bush is also likely to get muddier in general.
Soon after the New Hampshire results became clear, the Bush campaign sent an email to reporters recalling Rubio's earlier pledge to run a "3-2-1" strategy that would see him coming third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and emerging as the victor in South Carolina.
On Wednesday, another Bush email declared South Carolina to be "Jeb country."
Even though the Palmetto State delivered vital primary victories for George W. Bush in 2000 and for George H.W. Bush in 1988, many GOP insiders think the former Florida governor will have difficulty following in their footsteps.
"What we could see in South Carolina is Bush and Rubio throwing mud at each other while Trump and Cruz are fighting for first place," lamented Bonjean.
Some establishment voices are staving off panic for the moment.
Black, the Republican strategist, noted that the all-important delegates to the national convention are awarded on a proportional basis by all the states that vote up until March 15. On that date, Florida and Ohio are among the biggest states voting. They are huge prizes, because both award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.
Black asserted that mainstream Republicans would be fine so long as they had coalesced behind one candidate by then. "Whoever can win big on that day is the person who will really take command of the race," he predicted.
Still, virtually all recent major-party nominees have won at least one early-voting state. The hour may already be getting late to stop the march of Trump and Cruz - especially while the identity of the alternative remains unclear.
The establishment "thought it was Rubio - until last night," Woodard said Wednesday, referring to the New Hampshire result.
"I just don't know whether he can really come back to beat all these guys [in South Carolina]. If he fails this time, I don't know if the establishment can come up with anyone."
Didn't CNN and Fox News polls have Trump beating Ted Cruz by a massive 11% with just a few days to go for the Iowa Caucus? And weren't those polls posted repeatedly on the sidebar here at Freerepublic by gloating Trumpbots?
Yesterday, Cruz held a rally of 200 people, while Trump rallied about 5,000.
You mean just like in Iowa where Trump had all these “YUUUGE” crowds?
The GOP Establishment Will Not Find Salvation in South Carolina - The only candidate who can beat Donald Trump is Ted Cruz, and vice versa.
“A week ago, the Republican establishment thought it had found a savior. Sen. Marco Rubio, fresh from his third-place finish in Iowa, had momentum and was doing well in general-election polls. Mainstream Republicans were ready to coalesce behind him. The prospect of having to nominate Sen. Ted Cruz or Donald Trump-who finished first and second in Iowa, respectively-seemed to be receding.
New Hampshire dashed these hopes. Trump won big, and Rubio fell to fifth place. The Florida senator trailed two other mainstream candidates, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Rubio even lost to Cruz, who came in third despite investing only $500,000 in an inhospitable state. That result, combined with the terrain ahead, spells big trouble for the GOP. Polls in South Carolina, which votes next on Feb. 20, make a strong case that Trump and Cruz will finish first and second, shutting out Rubio and Bush again. The Trump-Cruz stranglehold on the nomination is tightening.
In the past month, three public surveys have examined the race in South Carolina. All three were taken between Jan. 15 and Jan. 23: a CBS News/YouGov survey, a Marist poll for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, and an OpinionSavvy poll for the Augusta Chronicle. In all three polls, Trump led by a wide margin, and Cruz came in second. The average result was 36 percent for Trump, 20 percent for Cruz, 13 percent for Rubio, and 10 percent for Bush. Kasich barely registered at 2 percent. The Chronicle poll tested a scenario similar to where we are now: a five-man field of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, and Ben Carson. Given those options, 32 percent of South Carolina Republicans chose Trump, 18 percent chose Cruz, 13 percent chose Bush, and 11 percent chose Rubio.
If you’re a Republican who dreads a Trump or Cruz nomination, that’s only the beginning of the bad news................”
All this folderol about the GOP establishment is nothing but PR to make the dopes look like they/re still viable.
The GOPeers might be stupid but they know a message when they hear it.
That would be the message from the grassroots......if you want to keep your party.....hands off our election.
The buzz in DC is that Reince and the rest of the GOPeers are coming to the next primary states......and have NO intention of stopping Trump.
Caucus states are always harder to poll, because they demand more time. SC is a primary state. Real Clear Politics had Trump at 31 in NH, he won with 35, so he was under polling in a primary state.
We all have to wait and see, but I believe Trump will emerge the winner in SC, probably by a good size margin.
Actually, he looks sad. But it is a better picture than “Star Wars Ted”, which we haven’t seen in awhile.
In Iowa, RCP had Trump up by 4.7; Cruz took it by 3.3, that’s an 8 point swing.
Over 80% of those who voted Republican at NH did not vote for Cruz!
“Yesterday, Cruz held a rally of 200 people, while Trump rallied about 5,000.”
But per the MSM, Cruz’s rally was “raucous” which rhymes with caucus, which starts with `c’ which rhymes with `t’ and that means trouble, with a capital T, right here in River City.
I don't always do desperate things to win a caucus, but when I do, I send voter shaming letters to get more votes. Stay shamed, my friends, stay shamed.
Imagine the Trump Cleansing Tornado hitting DC in January 2017, minutes after he is sworn in.
Come January 2017, we’ll see what a real Trumpertantrum looks like as he repeals every EO of the current Imam in Chief.
35% of those who voted in the GOP primaries in New Hampshire were not even Republicans. They were independents. New Hampshire is the least religious state in the entire country and the 5th most liberal. NH couldn’t be more different from South Carolina or the SEC states on March 1st. Those states are more like Iowa than anything else.
ping
Agreed, the article is nothing more than a Cruz add. You know, suppose Cruz wins, that’s a game changer! lol lol lol
Well, suppose Bush wins. But why no discussion about who is most likely to win, and if that is “big” or not? No, he needs stopped, by Cruz, the only one who can stop him. No, he is just among all the others, it is anyone’s race. lol What a joke.
If Bush was at 35%, it would be declared over, and all they would talk about would be his upcoming race against Hillary.
Trump is ahead, so they run exposes on how Gilmore still had a chance. It’s absurd.
88 % of those, who voted for the Republican side did not vote for Cruz regardless if they were from Mars/Venus or they were independents, republicans, democrats, socialists or from Masshole.
Will that trend continue? We do not know.
This pic was obviously snapped before Cruz got his
Count Chocula eyebrows botoxed.....so they don't move
when he talks. ROTFLOL.
Eric Trump will probably be standing by with an I pad loaded with every anti America/American EO signed by the Jihadist in chief. President Trump will sign the repealing of every EO.
Those EOs will be history like the Jihadist.
This reality has the GOPe, Open Border thugs and the rat donors in terror of what Trump will do.
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