Posted on 03/08/2016 5:24:01 AM PST by tatown
Hawaii · 19 delegates Last poll closes at 11:00 PM CT
Idaho · 32 delegates Last poll closes at 10:00 PM CT
Michigan · 59 delegates Last poll closes at 8:00 PM CT
Mississippi · 40 delegates Last poll closes at 7:00 PM CT
The Bern won’t win the nomination.
Jesse Jackson, Jerry Brown and others won MI primary - didn’t win nomination.
His MI win means nothing.
Looking at the numbers, it will be very hard for Trump to hit 1,237 by himself. Now, with the 40(b) rule in effect, I think he could still win, but I am guessing he will be around 1120 to 1150 pledged delegates at the convention. Cruz will be around 800 to 825.
Of course, I also assumed Rubio would be around a little longer. Now, the numbers and calculations have to change. Maybe this gives Trump a better chance at 1,237, maybe it gives him a little worse chance since he will be one on one against Cruz.
It’s been an interesting season, that’s for sure, and it isn’t over by a long stretch.
CNN >> % in: 27%
Trump728
46.6%
Cruz440
28.2%
Rubio205
13.1%
Kasich159
10.2%
Nope. There’s a target amount for each primary. He’s over 100% of his target, and he’s surpassing today’s target too.
He’s gonna go over 50
You may have studied it more than me and be more accurate, but Trump will have around 460 delegates in the morning.
Within a week, he’ll be close to 1000.
I could be wrong. We’ll see.
Trump is 3-1 for one tonight with big wins in MS, MI and HI.
Its been a Trumperoperdom Night tonight.
The Donald will be ecstatic when he wakes up in the morning.
There’s also a lot of military and retired military on Oahu.
If Rubio ends up third in Hawaii, he’ll likely get two delegates. If Kasich somehow moves ahead, Rubio will be shut out due to rounding.
Cruz and Trump will likely split the two CDs 2 to 1 in favor of Trump.
If the margins hold, Trump could take the majority of delegates in HI, which would be state 7 of 8 for Rule 40.
He may.
I called the state for Trump awhile back.
I don’t think that lead is going to narrow in the coming hours.
Just an aside:
Where will the GOP-E get 1237 votes to screw Trump and Cruz if Trump and Cruz combine for well over 1900 delegates?
He’s just 3 points and change short of that now.
He can’t win 1,237 even with all of their money. And I’m a Cruz supporter.
So you have to ask yourself, if he knows he can’t win outright, and he knows he won’t be the nominee at a brokered convention, then what is his only play to move ahead?
Cruz plans everything out. He makes mistakes, yes, but he thinks long term. If he pockets their money with no intention of playing their game, then it is just money they threw away on a pipe dream. And they threw away plenty of money on Bush after he ended up 6th in Iowa, so they are prone to throw money on a hope and a prayer.
And “the pure candidate” is a way for those who don’t support Cruz to place a strawman up against him that they can pummel. Politics is like sausage making, most people can’t watch it being made.
Trump has won 15 states, Cruz has won 7 and Boobio 1.
I’m sure you’re right. Good call.
With 96% of the vote in Idaho, it’s
Cruz 97,435
Trump 60,475
45-28%. Rubio is at 16% and won’t take.
Cruz should get 20 delegates. Trump 12.
Pending Hawaii the breakdown tonight is as follows:
Trump 62
Cruz 52
Kasich 17
Rubio 0
Rubio at 13%. In Hawaii.
They can’t, they’ll end up with about 500 delegates split among all of their candidates. A grand repudiation of the establishment by the rank and file.
CNN >> % in: 33%
Trump908
46.0%
Cruz606
30.7%
Rubio236
11.9%
Kasich191
9.7%
I applaud you for seeing he is not. You're one of the few. So, do you really think they will give him all that money without demanding anything of him?
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