Posted on 03/08/2016 5:24:01 AM PST by tatown
Yes, but that just dropped off to 11.9.
CNN >> % in: 33% >> 31%
CNN just adjusted percent in down by two points.
Trump908
46.0%
Cruz606
30.7%
Rubio236
11.9%
Kasich191
9.7%
No Aloha magic for Boobio. And it looks like he is shut out again of delegates in HI.
Unless the turnout is really low, then there must be some large precincts (by Hawaiian standards, at least) still out there. Because they don’t have even close to 33% of the vote in, just 33% of the precincts.
There, I saw your prediction. Missed it before.
CNN >>> % in: 36%
Trump1,052
44.4%
Cruz740
31.3%
Rubio307
13.0%
Kasich224
9.5%
There was a big turnout - everything is going well for Trump and his big win puts to rest the notion things are tightening. On the contrary, he is winning big and that has to make the media and establishment sit up and take notice.
Thanks for the mention. I’ll look for that.
I was surprised.
I wasn’t expecting him to take HI too.
If turnout is big, then the numbers in Hawaii could change fairly quickly. All depends on who is strong in the larger precincts still to come.
That’s scary. Cruz elections are getting like Democrats, you think you’re ahead all the way to the end the magic circus, Cruz pulls it out.
I agree, but with these small numbers and only 36% of the precincts reporting, this may change.
We’ll see...
I can’t argue with that.
I doubt it... not with a 17 point lead.
As more numbers come in, it all points to a decisive Trump win.
460 to 462 after tonight. But if Trump sweeps all of the winner-take-all states and runs 50% of the proportional contests in the next week, he still will only add 350 to his total. That would be 810, and that is great, but he would have to sweep them all to get there. Then the numbers start to slow down.
Pennsylvania (71), New York (95),and California (172) are biggies, but those are only 338. Add those to 810 and he is still about a hundred shy.
Now if he sweeps next week, the momentum will be on his side and he could pick up the winner-take-all states of Arizona (58) and Wisconsin (42) and seal up the win.
But... again, he has to run the board next week to clear his path.
Impossible? Not at all. A cake walk? Nope!
Missouri (52) could go for Cruz (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa are neighbors and went for Cruz) and Ohio (66) could go for Kasich. If that happens, then it’s another 118 delegates Trump has to come up with.
With the collapse of Rubio, there has to be a new look made at all of the races. And of course, every week brings new dynamics.
We will see.
My guesstimate is that about 15-20% of the vote is in. Still very early.
And, as I say that, Decision Desk calls it for Trump.
It's straight proportional for the state delegates (13) in Hawaii. The trick there is that rounding favors the guys who are 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Right now, Rubio would get a consolation prize of 2 delegates for third. If he slips behind Kasich, he falls back and could get either 0 or 1 depending on the fractionals. As of right now, Trump leads in CD2 and should get 2 delegates to Cruz's 1. There's no vote out in CD1 per Greenpapers.
HI is not Huckabee/Santorum territory.
You have to appeal to a broad coalition of voters to win.
Cruz’s smarmy preacher quality repels as many people as he attracts.
How can they do that with no exit polls and being caucuses?
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