Posted on 03/09/2016 8:09:34 AM PST by scooby321
NO, you are wrong. One contests the delegate count before the first vote.
The other throws the convention wide open for anyone to win after the first vote.
Thanks for pointing that out! 538 is great.
Ford did win on the first ballot. MS helped put him over.
Put down the pot. Only an idiot would consider Cruz an establishment Republican.
He’s not a political Bushie...
He’s well entrenched in the investment business and is a god fearing Christian.
His role in the Silvarado Savings bank as a director, was never shown to be at fault to any great degree for the demise of the bank. I believe he paid a fine of 50K, as did others and the matter was dropped.. As we all should know, many savings and loans became over extended due to drops in property value at the time.
this makes total sense to me. If no one gets enough delegates then it gets figured out at the convention. What I don’t agree with and neither does Cruz, is taking away someone’s rightful win (ie 1237+ delegates) and give it to someone else.
No, the other day he said he was against a Brokered convention where they broker to get someone who was never in the race.
Contested over the summer is to contest between him and trump only. No one else would win, only him or Trump.
Wake up and understand the difference.
Sheesh, does anyone around her understand the way this crap works anymore?
Yep. This.
There you go Ted.
As long as your ambition is served, to hell with America.
Go back to Canada.
I don’t trust them either, which is why I hope one of the two gets to 1237 before the convention. I prefer Cruz, but we win with either.
I actually think if Cruz loses his “outsider” image he will fade fast. I saw some exit poll last night which indicated that Cruz may be beginning to slip in that department. The more he plays with the Bushes and Romney I think nature will take its course. Trump should help it along.
“I know Ted and what he thinks.”
Ok, if Trump goes into the convention with 1230 delegates, and GOPe shenanigans give the nomination to someone else, then Ted will be OK with that ?
If Cruz now believes he can't win the nomination outright, he needs to do the right thing and drop out instead of hoping to strip votes from Trump. He must know that going into a contested convention, neither he nor Trump will be walking away with the nomination. The GOPe will control the process and who the delegates vote for.
Believe what you want to believe. Cruz has talked the talk and walked the walk. Seems a lot less risky to me than a guy who changes from democrat to republican with regularity, but that’s why we go through this process. If your guy is everything you say he is, he shouldn’t have any problem getting to 1237. If not, then we’ll have a contested election and the party can decide if they want to continue being a viable party or crash and burn.
...thus, the reason you are not winning!!!!
No.....he won’t, but he will accept it...because there is nothing he can do.
Ted would not likely be the beneficiary of a negotiated convention. This entire setup is being done by the establishment who is angling to get someone other than trump or cruz.
But frankly, as crazy as things have been, I really can’t predict it. They could find the delegates to put trump over the top and it would not be that many are needed.
I do not say he is anything but an outsider. If he does a wall and gets immigration under control he will have done more for the country than I expect any of the GOPOe, including Cruz, would do. Those alone would make him a great success in my eyes and will be the most conservative changes to come out of DC in decades. If he does some of the other stuff he is talking about, he could be a great president. I suspect any of the others will knuckle down to their donors and not do much about the border or immigration because the donors like those things the way they are.
Idiots.
Oh please. He said before he doesn’t want a brokered convention, he thinks that will be disastrous. A Contested convention is a whole different ball of yarn. A lot more fair and a lot less bloody.
A contested convention happens when no single candidate has secured a majority of the delegates ahead of the party convention this summer. Instead, the party's nominee will be chosen by the delegates who come to the convention, on a series of one or more ballots.
In the Republicans' case, there are 2,472 delegates in total, so the magic number for any candidate to win the nomination outright is 1,237 delegates.
Here's how the score stands so far, going into Tuesday's contests:
What is the difference between a contested convention and a brokered convention?
If no one reaches the magic 1,237 number of delegates, Republicans would face a contested convention. The idea of a brokered convention refers to the notion that there are power brokers within the party who would help resolve a contested convention. State party chairmen, for instance, used to have near complete control over their delegates, but this is not so true anymore.
Okay, that's crazy. How often does this happen?
Almost never, despite discussion of the possibility early on in almost every election cycle. The last time Republicans had a contested convention that went beyond the first ballot was back in 1948, when the party nominated Thomas Dewey (of "Dewey Defeats Truman" fame). That year, Dewey won the nomination on the third ballot.
For Democrats, the last time was in 1952, with the nomination of Adlai Stevenson. The last time a candidate successfully emerged out of a contested multi-ballot convention and won the presidency was Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932.
There have been several other close calls: in 1976, for example, Gerald Ford didn't have enough delegates for the nomination ahead of the convention but was able to secure enough on the first ballot to edge out Ronald Reagan, then a former governor of California. And in 1984, the same scenario emerged on the Democratic side: former Vice President Walter Mondale was 40 delegates short of the nomination, but support from superdelegates put him over the top so he didn't have to go to a multiple-ballot fight with Colorado Sen. Gary Hart.
As some Republicans look to distance themselves from Donald Trump's controversial comments, others discuss the uncertainty of the 2016 GOP conven...
How likely is a contested convention this year?
It's hard to tell: this is something political observers salivate over every four years, and in recent history it has never actually come to pass. It's usually almost impossible, because often when one candidate gets momentum early on in the nominating process, they win enough states further down the calendar to get the required number of delegates ahead of time. Republican operatives caution even this year that the scenario is still unlikely.
But it's very true that the conditions are far more ripe for a contested convention this year than they are in most campaigns. There are still multiple candidates who are viable and winning delegates, not to mention an active effort on the part of establishment operatives to keep Trump from securing the nomination.
Perhaps the biggest clues to the likelihood of a contested convention will come next week on March 15, when Florida and Ohio vote. There's enormous pressure on Rubio, the Florida senator, and Kasich, the Ohio governor, to win their home states over Trump -- and especially because both states' delegates are winner-take-all, victories for Rubio and/or Kasich would help spread around the delegates and keep Trump from reaching 1,237. If Rubio and Kasich lose their home states to Trump, though, the pair of states would put the front-runner much closer to a scenario where he can win the nomination outright.
Is anyone eligible to be the nominee if a contested convention actually occurs?
Not as many candidates as you'd think would be immediately eligible. Back in 2012, the RNC introduced Rule 40, which states that the only candidates eligible to be in contention at a contested convention are candidates who have the support of a majority of delegates in at least eight states across the map.
In theory, this means that even in the most crowded and fractured of fields the most candidates that could be included on a convention ballot is six. This year, there are four remaining candidates in the race--Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich--and it's unlikely that all four of them will amass eight states each in which they have a majority of delegates.
So far, Trump has a majority of delegates in six states (New Hampshire, South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts and Tennessee), compared with two for Cruz (Texas and Kansas) and one for Rubio (Puerto Rico).
If things got truly crazy, someone else could step in -- and if he or she could convince the majority of delegates in at least eight states to support them on the convention floor, they too could be eligible for consideration as a candidate during the balloting process.
(Also, keep in mind that the RNC could propose changes to these rules at any point between now and the convention, so the 8-state rule might be moot by then anyway.)
What happens when the candidates and delegates get to Cleveland?
On the first ballot, the vast majority of delegates are bound to vote for a specific candidate, which is usually based proportionally on the election results in the state they're from. That means that among bound delegates, the numbers will look fairly similar to delegate-counter maps that have been tracking the delegate fight throughout the primary process.
But although Republicans don't have superdelegates like Democrats do, there are still more unbound delegates than you'd think. Some states, for example, don't bind delegates to vote for a specific candidate; plus, state party chairs and RNC committee members also get to serve as delegates for their states.
Depending on the dynamics going into the convention, party leaders could want to wrap up the process as quickly as possible and vote for Trump or whichever candidate was ahead; conversely, they could also team up to collectively stop Trump or another candidate from reaching 1,237 on that first ballot.
It gets complicated, because each state's delegate selection process and rules for bound and unbound delegates are different.
What happens on the second ballot?
After the first ballot, if no candidate were to receive the required 1,237 delegates to secure the nomination, the voting would head into a second round. At this point, many more delegates would be unbound -- meaning they could vote based on their personal preference, and not based on the candidate they were previously compelled to back on the first ballot. (Again, when delegates are released depends on their home state rules.)
This could get pretty chaotic: once balloting gets past the first round it becomes a bit like a caucus, where delegates can work to convince others to switch over and join their candidate. It also means the candidates and their campaigns will pursue these delegates and work hard to get them on board. This could be a lengthy process, given that many of the delegates won't be selected until county and state conventions later this spring.
How long will this go on?
Technically, it could go to as many ballots as it needed to before someone hits 1,237 -- though it's unlikely it would go past a few. (In 1924, Democrats set the record for number of ballots: 103.)
What else could make things complicated?
The RNC could opt to change the rules at any point between now and the convention. The RNC's Rules committee, which meets regularly throughout the year, could recommend changes that would then be voted on and ratified by the whole group of delegates at the beginning of the Cleveland convention.
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