Posted on 03/15/2016 10:25:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The two leading GOP campaigns intend to muscle the Ohio governor out of the race.
Advisers to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz say there's no way they'll allow John Kasich to even compete at a contested national convention -- let alone prevail.
Trump and Cruz are betting that their dual dominance in the delegate hunt will permanently box out the Ohio governor, who has no mathematical path to the nomination and is openly pursuing a floor fight at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. And their aides say Kasich won't even make it to the floor.
"There is virtually zero chance he can even be nominated," Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican national committeeman who's advising Cruz on his convention strategy, told POLITICO. "It's a two-man race."
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that Trump and Cruz are nearly certain to control the lion's share of the 2,472 delegates participating in the July convention. Together, they've earned more than 1,000 delegate slots to Kasich's 136. And those delegates will ultimately approve the rules that govern a contested convention.
In addition, a rule adopted at the 2012 convention -- pushed by supporters of Mitt Romney to box out Ron Paul -- requires that any candidate eligible for the nomination win the majority of delegates in eight states or territories. In 31 contests so far, Kasich's only win came Tuesday night in Ohio -- his home state -- and it's unlikely he'll command majority support in seven of the remaining 20 contests.
There's a small chance Cruz could fail to meet the target as well. He's only won majority support in four contests so far. Trump, with a dominant win in the Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday, became the first candidate to cross the threshold.
To be sure, the convention rules will get a thorough review and revision when delegates convene in Cleveland, raising the possibility that the threshold to participate could be lowered, making room for Kasich. But with Trump and Cruz delegates at the helm, it's unlikely they'll adjust it to help a rival.
"The Cruz folks would never allow the rules to be changed and of course we wouldn't either," said Barry Bennett, who's coordinating Trump's convention strategy. "The laws of math are not amendable."
Trump's resounding wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina on Tuesday may preclude a contested convention altogether. If he secures the support of a majority of delegates over the next three months, he would enter Cleveland as the presumptive nominee and head off any challenge to his supremacy. But Kasich has predicated his candidacy on the notion that no one will have a majority entering the convention. What's been unclear until now is that even if he's right, Kasich may have little reason to hope he'll get the party's nod.
A Kasich spokesman said the naysaying only fuels the governor further. "With so many states still to go, and the map becoming increasingly Kasich-friendly, there's little doubt we will be going all the way to Cleveland," said the spokesman, Rob Nichols. " The same people trying to write us off at the convention were also trying to write us off for the first debate, for New Hampshire, after South Carolina and countless other times. How'd that work out? We're very comfortable with our place, our strategy and our future."
In that vein, Kasich's campaign foreshadowed its plans for a convention brawl late Tuesday, naming Stu Spencer and Charlie Black -- two veterans of the last contested convention, the 1976 fight between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan -- to his national strategy team.
Tom Rath, a Kasich adviser from New Hampshire and veteran of the Republican convention process, said Trump and Cruz's advisers may be overlooking the role of politics at the convention. If a contested convention arrives, and Kasich is dramatically outpolling Trump and Cruz against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, convention delegates may make judgments based on political calculus.
"It's a political convention and sooner or later, the realities of the moment politically, which we cannot foresee now, will overwhelm all the process in the world," Rath said. "You cannot make a judgment about what could happen until you know the political context within which that action is happening."
Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican Congressman and Kasich supporter, added that convention delegates must consider who can win in November as part of their process. "The rule of the party is to make sure to advance the best candidate for the general election. I think all the delegates are going to have to sit down and think this through very carefully.
Rath said that if Trump and Cruz are unable to break a deadlock to hand one of them the nomination, convention delegates can suspend their rules -- including the eight-state threshold -- to give other candidates the chance to put their names forward. Paul Ryan, who as House speaker presides over the convention, would preside over that process -- and his determinations on suspending convention rules could carry the day. Rath added that a deadlocked situation could also elevate Kasich as critical tie breaker -- perhaps the key to assembling a winning coalition.
Morton Blackwell, a Republican national committeeman from Pennsylvania who has attended every national convention since 1964, said he foresaw the obstacle that the rules would cause and pressed to revise them at a meeting in January, before any primary contests had been held. He was ultimately shot down. He says he's concerned that any attempt to lower the threshold now -- at the expense of Trump and Cruz -- would be viewed as an attempt by insiders to rig the convention against the two anti-establishment candidates.
"Reintroducing it now would be a cause of war," he said. "I don't want the scandal of a change in the rules ... I think we're much more likely to lose if there's an attempt to change the rules no matter who it helps or hurts."
I started as a Cruz fan, and I always liked his smarts and his conservatism. I have some concerns, but I’m sure Cruz supporters have some concerns with Trump.
We need to come together and defeat the socialist advance in our country.
I am glad Ohioans like Kasich, but who is he?
“I loathe him. A complete phony.”
I agree completely with you.
I cringe every time he says: “First, I’ll finish the border.”
The border WAS finished in the 1,800’s.
He refuses to mention the most important aspect: ‘the fence.’
FINISH THE BORDER FENCE!
Kasich cannot utter that phrase.
“The rule of the party is to make sure to advance the best candidate for the general election. I think all the delegates are going to have to sit down and think this through very carefully.”
Dole, McCain, Romney? When has the GOP-e ever picked a winner? The only reason The first Bush won was Reagan coat tails. Then the idiot increased taxes and handed the White House to Bill Clinton.
That’s cry baby stuff. Kasich won in OH, period. Even Nixon didn’t contest the IL election that most assuredly stolen by Dailey for Kennedy. No one likes a sore loser.
If that’s not photoshopped...that is bad. Also I think Trump wears his ties way too long...it looks silly wearing it past the belt buckle.
If the GOP nominee is not named Donald or Ted, some grassroots GOP voters will abandoon the GOP for the rest of their lives, IMO.
It seems Kasich thinks if he moves far enough left, he can win the general without the GOP base. This was the Jeb strategy. Rubio must also be on board since he did not endorse Cruz.
The voters who voted for him in OH must be on drugs.
The voters who voted for him in OH must be on drugs.
Made in China, no doubt.
I do not know one single person who voted for Kasich.
The county maps show him winning north of where I live, but for the life of me, I’ve not run into one.
It’s hard to believe that all of central and northern Ohio republicans are brain dead and don’t know when a candidate doesn’t have a prayer of being the party nominee.
I’m betting on some kind of vote fraud.
It's not that cut and dried. There are a couple of things to consider:
First, in most of the states (more than 40, I think), the actual delegates are not selected in the primary or caucus. All that is determined by the vote is how many delegates are bound to vote for a particular candidates for the nomination, and even that is only for the first ballot in most cases. The actual delegates are chosen later, usually at district and state GOP conventions where the state party has a lot of influence. So just because a delegate is bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot, for example, does not mean that the delegate actually supports Trump for president. And they have NO obligation to vote the way Trump wants on any other convention business, including rule changes.
The other thing to consider is that if they have a rule change they want to pass and are not sure they have the votes, the chair can call for a voice vote. And if the chair says "the ayes have it", that is pretty much the end of the story.
Whether they would use that option to change the rules over the objection of the candidates or not is uncertain - they used the voice vote option in 2012, I believe, to make the change to rule 40(b). Even though the Paul supporters were louder in the "nay" votes, the chair still declared that the "ayes" won.
Excellent for a debate with Hillary if the timing is employed properly.
Trump would do it, I doubt if Cruz would.
All Trump has to do is get a great point across that exposes Hilliary in an obvious way.
And after her lying response all Trump has to say is "better put some ice on that Mrs. Bill Clinton."
Rule 40 B of the RNC’s presidential nomination rules. AAny candidate who seeks the nomination as candidate for president must have won 100% of the delegates from AT LEAST 8 States. Trump has done that. So far Cruz has not nor has Kasich.
As it stands now, neither Cruz nor Kasich can even get into the convention no matter how many delegates they have without having taken 100 5 of available delegates in 8 states.
Mitt Romney blocked Rand Paul from the RNC national convention floor in this manner in 2011.
Trump just needs to keep winning big in the 26 remaining states. It is unlikely that Cruz can catch him at all.
give him a break. Like many many before him, he is basking in the limelight of a favorite son
His loyal people have chosen him once again knowing the vote was irrelevant
Changing subjects just a bit, I knew a guy once who oft quoted a somewhat famous adage, "You dress like the job you want, not the job you have". If you aspire to be POTUS, dress like one. :-)
Yep. That crap really makes us want to rally and unite behind Trump.
When folks won’t even hold their noses to vote Trump in November, you all have no one but yourselves to blame.
They are using this as an excuse. All along in their hearts they have been for Hillary.
Praise the Lord.
They are combining to take down the fraudulent Kasich.
I really hope Trump and Cruz end up as allies. At this point in time I have a personal dislike for Cruz, but I would still like to see things patched up and the 2 of them working together.
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